Dems: Vote No on Recall, but if you get the urge...
by JohnHuang2
Anybody who thought that Arnold Schwarzenegger had the election in the bag, better think twice. California Democrats, whose Governor, Gray Davis, faces a historic recall election October 7, think they've hit upon a win-win strategy. Even with once-thriving California in ruins, they've got the perfect fall-back provision, they say. Sure, polls show that, were the recall held today, not only would voters give Ol' Gray the boot, he'd be on a plane to Nigeria -- seated right next to Charles Taylor. And two months is hardly enough time to rehabilitate a corpse. But, while most California Dems have written Gov. Screw-Up off, they're betting on Lieutenant Governor Screw Up, Cruz Bustamante, whose name will appear on the ballot. His, Schwarzenegger and a scant 200 other candidates.
The Democrat strategy -- the party's theme message to voters -- boils down to this: Be strong, say No to Recall. Say Yes to Wait, because Recall Can Wait. Recall activity outside the context of 4-year terms is wrong. But if you can't wait -- if you've gotta have recall -- have Safe Recall: Vote Bustamante! Davis's strategy -- a pure 'just say no to recall' campaign, offering no other options -- is just too simplistic, say many Democrats. Teaching voters not to have recall, alone, won't work -- given the enormous pressures on Golden State voters these days. Top Democrat strategists know this full well. The Davis model -- promote waiting until Davis's current term is up before having Recall activity -- is too simplistic, too unrealistic. The recall drive is among the most powerful forces in humans living under Gray Davis. Almost everybody under Gray Davis gets the urge for Recall. The Davis model ignores this. But having Safe Recall -- voting Bustamante -- allows voters to express dissatisfaction with Davis without the risk of unintended victory for Republicans. With Safe Recall, voters can focus, relax -- enjoy the pleasures of Recall without the fear of putting Republicans in office. Having unprotected Recall can be dangerous. So, say No to Recall, but if you've gotta have it, have Safe Recall -- vote Bustamante!
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Another challenge for Schwarzenegger is the growing sense he's unqualified -- not up to the job. Completely not up to the job, in fact. Sure, The Terminator is great with one-liners, but being great with one-liners ain't enough. Let's be realistic. Gray Davis gave California the biggest budget deficits ever -- more than all other states combined. Gray Davis gave California the lowest bond ratings ever. Gray Davis gave California the worst energy crisis ever. Question: Can The Terminator do all that -- keep racking up record deficits, keep state bond ratings in the toilet and bring back the energy crisis? No, Schwarzenegger just isn't qualified for that. Sure, Gray Davis can make screwing up California look simple, but don't let that fool you. It requires enormous skill, talent, and, above all, experience. Failed leadership is a Davis forte, and I doubt Schwarzenegger can furnish failed leadership quite like Davis has. Learning to make a hash of things like Ol' Gray has managed takes years of experience. Besides, notice how Schwarzenegger refuses to be specific? Mr. Schwarzenegger, how do you intend to rack up $38 billion in deficits, sir? And be specific! How will you bring back the energy crisis, sir? How will you keep bond ratings in the toilet -- and drive business out of the state, like Davis has? And no generalities -- lay out a detailed plan!
With Schwarzenegger's lack of qualifications -- and few believe Schwarzenegger can provide the failed vision, unbridled corruption and ineffectiveness Ol' Gray has so assiduously worked to achieve -- Democrats are clicking their heels, convinced this election is in the bag for 'em as they slide into oblivion.
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Meanwhile, speaking of ousting tyrants, "indicted war criminal and former warlord Charles Taylor went into exile in Nigeria on Monday, under international pressure and besieged by rebels who have overrun most of the West African country," CBS News reports.
CBS News: "Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo welcomed Taylor at the international airport in the capital, Abuja. The two leaders shook hands and embraced before walking down a red carpet together.
"Taylor arrived in Nigeria hours after surrendering power to his vice president in the capital, Monrovia."
Well, that makes three -- count 'em, 3 -- regime changes on Bush's watch: The Taliban, Saddam and now the Taylor regime are no more. Democrats say Bush suffers a growing credibility gap on the international stage. Especially after his accurate uranium charge in the State of the Union address. Monday's tumultuous events in Liberia are testament to Bush's growing credibility gap. Bush's 'growing credibility gap' got Taylor to high-tail out, without firing a shot. "God willing, I will be back," vowed Taylor. Most dismiss such talk as empty rhetoric. No word yet on whether a write-in candidacy in California is in the cards for Taylor, though.
The Recession's growing credibility gap
For Democrats, especially '04 wannabes, a once promising recession appears increasingly mired in quagmire. Deepening quagmire. By almost every key measure, from rising personal income to falling weekly initial jobless claims, the recession is struggling badly.
Democrat campaign strategists had hoped the recession would be a 1-termer (at least) -- lasting all 4 years of Bush's tenure, then resigning from public service in January, 2005, as a new Democrat president gets sworn in. This is the rosey scenario, or cakewalk theory. The hope was that the recession would unseat Bush as it did his father back in '92. Hardline Democrats -- the Howard Dean wing of the party -- see this recession as recession-lite, and there is no way it can beat Bush by trying to be recession-lite, they argue.
Dean proposes disarming the economy -- repeal of the Bush tax cuts across-the-board, turning recession-lite into real recession. Less hardline factions, led by Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, argue that, to increase the recession's appeal among more moderate swing voters and peel them away from Bush, recession-lite is the only way to go. He notes the recession that undid Bush's father was, for all intents and purposes, recession-lite, too.
Although the recession had remained remarkably popular with Democrats since taking office in January, 2001, there are growing signs of trouble. Among Democrats, the recession had once commanded towering 100% approval ratings in its handling of the economy, but no more. Recent polls show rising doubts on the recession's credibility as an almost daily barrage of bullish news on the economy, from Wall Street to Main Street, takes its toll. Everyday, it seems, the recession gets pummeled by gloomy news of an accelerating economy. Some Democrats wonder if the recession had exaggerated evidence of its existence, or of the imminent threat it posed on the Bush administration. The slide in confidence in the recession and rising disapproval of its performance among Democrats likely will only grow worse, if recent economic signs are any harbinger.
Among the slew of worrisome signals fueling growing doubts over the recession's credibility: The latest government report on second quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) shows a better-than-expected 2.4% annual growth rate, despite the war in Iraq and terror jitters, with analysts expecting 4%-5% growth for the second half; not only is consumer spending sizzling, business investment -- whose anemic performance had been a big drag on the economy since the dot-com collapse -- is gaining momentum as well; the surge in business spending is, like the stock market rally, a leading indicator -- it presages future hiring, pushing the key unemployment rate down; the housing boom is still booming, despite the recent jump in interest rates (prompted by an accelerating economy); the service sector soared in July, the Institute for Supply Management's key index rocketing to 65.1 percent, up from an already bullish 60.6 in June. The sizzling July figure was the sizzle-ing-est since the survey began exactly 6 years ago, and presages 6% GDP growth for the 3rd quarter; factory orders in June jumped 1.7% -- better than expected, propelled by soaring durable goods orders, the index's 3rd increase these past 4 months; productivity jumped a 5.7 percent annualized rate for the 2nd quarter, while initial jobless claims dropped below the benchmark 400k/week for the first time in 6 months for the week ending August 2.
Amid the recession's increasingly sluggish performance, the growing frustration has driven Democrats to ask, 'who lost the recession?' Or was the recession distracted by coverage of Kobe Bryant, Scott Peterson and the California recall election? Did the recession mislead us into thinking this would all be a cakewalk? Did the recession willfully exaggerate its capabilities? If the tax cuts undermined the recession's momentum, why not repeal 'em all?!
These are just some of the questions Democrats are increasingly asking themselves these days.
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Anyway, that's...
My two cents
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