Schwarzenegger Outcome Could Affect Bush in 2004 (McClintock & Simon to quit?)

Washington Post ^ | Aug. 14, 2003 | Dana Milbank and Mike Allen

[FairOpinion]

In the best scenario for Bush, Davis is ousted, Schwarzenegger triumphs with a united Republican vote and California's bleak fiscal situation begins to improve. With the governorship in popular Republican hands, the state's 54 electoral votes, once a lost cause for the GOP, could come within Bush's grasp in 2004.

Alternatively, if Schwarzenegger's candidacy implodes, it could leave the Republicans without an obvious candidate to face reinvigorated Democrats.

Don't expect Bush to say that publicly, however. Bush aides believe that appearing to meddle would backfire and boost Democrats' efforts to link the California recall to the Florida recount. Still, California Republicans say, lawmakers and others tied to the White House have been putting what one called "heavy pressure" on Simon and McClintock to drop out -- and one GOP strategist close to the White House expects one or both to quit.

[FairOpinion]

PLease read mypost #40 in this thread and "all will be revealed".

[southernnorthcarolina]

This race has no template. To my knowledge, nothing exactly like this (or even somewhat like this) has happened before. I've never been shy about making predictions, but I have no clue on this one. The mechanics of the election change all; by which I mean, if there were Dem and GOP primaries, the outcome and God knows the strategy would be vastly different. The Dem primary would consist of candidates trying to out-liberal each other; the GOP primary would at least in large part be fought on conserevative turf (albeit with little hope for right-to-lifers).

In the case of the shootout with a short fuse we have, however, a headlong lurch to the political center seems almost inevitable. It is triangulation writ large. The signing-on of Warren Buffet to Schwarzenegger's campaign is particularly fascinating. He's a moderate-to-liberal, has spoken out forceably against repeal of estate taxes, and has contributed to Democratic candidates including Hillary. Does his presence on Team Arnold indicate a philosophical shift to the left for the California GOP; is it an attempt by Arnold to lock up the center; or is it merely the case of Buffet betting on a winner?

Conservatives are going to have to swallow hard on this one, but it looks to me (admittedly 3000 miles away) like Arnold has manoevered himself into the position of being the only Republican with a realistic shot at winning.

[CyberCowboy777]

Arnold will win the votes of 10% to 15% of registered democrats. He will also win a good portion of independents. Hispanics will not make up for the Black and soccer mom vote. Not to mention that Arnold is very popular among Hispanics. Polls will show this soon.

More than republicans are upset about the state of the state and Ventura proved the ability of celebrity and "fresh" face to win elections.

Arnold is moving left for reason, make no mistake.

Cruz cannot win with Arnold in the race.

[Torie]

No don't apologize, it was your time horizon I opined about. But then I am a man, and more patient. So it is complicated as to gender generalizations. But then my screen name is feminine I'm told. Whatever.

[tubebender]

Cal has a fairly large number of absentee voters. It used to favor the Rs but I think lately it has gone over to the dark side. They are going to be dazzled by this ballot. I still am not betting any money on the success of the recall itself although Cruz on the ballot will draw some mexican votes against Davis...

[CyberCowboy777]

Davis is a non factor.

A voter can vote to keep Davis and vote that if Davis is recalled Cruz becomes Governor.

Arnold is the main competitor for democrat votes.

[FairOpinion]

"I would rather be that way that some whine."

--

As theysay, it's better to light one candle, than curse the darkness.

The fact that in the Free Republic poll, 53% support Arnold, and only 32% support McClintock shows that there are many sensible conservatives who can assess the situation realistically.

Supporting Arnold does not make one a RINO, it makes one a winning Republican.

On the other hand, supporting McClintock, when that support may result in a disastrous leftist Democrat win seems more a "Republican In Name Only" thing to do.

[Dan Walsh]

New Mexico and Illinois elected Dem Governors in 2002. I believe New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania did too.

The Govenor isn't a 100% predictor but there are some trends to follow.

Here in Indiana we have had Democratic Governors for 16 years but we voted for Bush Sr twice, Dole and then Bush Jr.

No trend here!

[spokeshave]

Another benefit of Davis thrown out is that the toon looses ...hopefully it will shut him up for a while.

[merry10]

Tom McClinton is my state senator (or I'm ashamed to say, I think he is - I'm in Camarillo CA and he is in Thousands Oaks area..about 10 miles away) Close enough. I think McClintock DESERVES to be governor but yes, if it gets closer, I'll throw my vote behind AS. As to his being prochoice, we had eight years under Pete Wilson who was a (R) and prochoice/prolife was not an issue ever.

[FairOpinion]

We were all just praying for Gray Davis' good health, until we can recall him.

Conventional wisdom and the polls show that Davis is toast. Period.

So the big question is who comes after him: Arnold or Cruz?

Simon and McClintock are hardly even mentioned, their constituency is so small, they aren't even considered major candidates, but they could siphon off just enough Republican votes to hand victory to Cruz.

[onyx]

But then my screen name is feminine I'm told. Whatever.

Wow! That it is! Heretofore, I thought you were one of us! Sorry!

[Princeliberty]

Ok he is combining socialists with
people like Steve Forbes and Kudlow who
support the government's policies
of creating stock market and real estate
ballons to give the economy a false "sugar
high" to cover up the effects of too much
government.

All is revealed right expect the exact same
policies of Bill Clinton!

[FairOpinion]

You summed it up very well.

People need to look at the reality of the situation, not live in their own dreamworld, then wake up to a VERY harsh reality the day after the election of Governor Bustamante.

[Torie]

Well I heard on talk radio today, that Republicans say they operate more from their head than their heart by a 4-1 margin, and that Dems say they operate more from their heart than their head by a 3-1 margin. So one should assume unless there is clear evidence to the contrary, that anyone posting here is a man. Ouch! Did I post this? B-itch slap me!

[FairOpinion]

I see, so you consider Forbes and Kudlow socialists too?

It's very interesting when one actually gets a calibration on those viciously opposing Arnold. It frequently turns out that they are not really Republicans, hate George Bush, Forbes, Kudlow and capitalism in general.

[southernnorthcarolina]

...Dems say they operate more from their heart than their head by a 3-1 margin.

Even lower.