Schwarzenegger Outcome Could Affect Bush in 2004 (McClintock & Simon to quit?)

Washington Post ^ | Aug. 14, 2003 | Dana Milbank and Mike Allen

[FairOpinion]

In the best scenario for Bush, Davis is ousted, Schwarzenegger triumphs with a united Republican vote and California's bleak fiscal situation begins to improve. With the governorship in popular Republican hands, the state's 54 electoral votes, once a lost cause for the GOP, could come within Bush's grasp in 2004.

Alternatively, if Schwarzenegger's candidacy implodes, it could leave the Republicans without an obvious candidate to face reinvigorated Democrats.

Don't expect Bush to say that publicly, however. Bush aides believe that appearing to meddle would backfire and boost Democrats' efforts to link the California recall to the Florida recount. Still, California Republicans say, lawmakers and others tied to the White House have been putting what one called "heavy pressure" on Simon and McClintock to drop out -- and one GOP strategist close to the White House expects one or both to quit.

[FairOpinion]

I hope this unnamed GOP strategist is right and McC & Simon will finally put the well being of California and the Republican party ahead of their personal ambitions.

Actually if they would withdraw now gracefully, that would actually be good for their future political ambitions, while if they insist on being spoilers, resulting in a Bustamente win, their name would forever be mud and couldn't get elected dogcatcher, ever.

[sinkspur]

Still, California Republicans say, lawmakers and others tied to the White House have been putting what one called "heavy pressure" on Simon and McClintock to drop out -- and one GOP strategist close to the White House expects one or both to quit.

If they're still in single digits by Labor Day, they'll both quit.

[PhiKapMom]

This is great news if the WP can be believed. I have this doubt everytime I read it is from the WP!

This sure shoots a hole in the other WP article that said Bush supports all the candidates. That was one disjointed article BTW. It didn't flow at all!

Agree with you -- if they pull out shortly, they will have a very bright future! If they give CA Bustamante, they are in trouble for any national office or probably statewide office after that!

[Torie]

Do you really think that Arnold getting elected will have much impact on Bush's prospects? You are right however probably regarding the outcome, including the drop out (almost certainly if the election is tight, and still more likely than not if it looks like an Arnold blowout), unless something bad happens to Arnold, and folks lose confidence in him as a steady hand on the tiller.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

ping

[ImProudToBeAnAmerican]

A larger than life Arnold victory in CA, steadily improving economy, WMD evidence and success in Iraq...all will flatten the dems this fall and provide a mandate for GW to finish the job.

[Carry_Okie]

Falling in line with the Washington Post, eh?

As if they would give Bush effective advice!

Since when did they have Republican interests at heart?

Seeing as Ahnold has already pulled in a Bush hating financial advisor who never saw a spending programme he didn't like (Buffet), how effective or reliable a supporter of Bush would a governor Schwartznegger really be ?

Doesn't that give you just a teensy bit of heartburn?

[Keith in Iowa]

I'd still like to see some substance on issues from the Governator...the sound bites & movie lines are becoming tiresome. So far, the only good thing about all this the Bryant & Peterson cases are much less in the news.

[afuturegovernor]

Simon made all kinds of promises in the GOP primary to get elected and then blew it big time in the general election against an incumbent with (at the time) 35% approval ratings. Simon was a total diaster. We should have won that election. And now he thinks he can actually win this election??

[The Old Hoosier]

You know, I don't see how Schwarzenegger is better than Davis. Now that he's got Mr. Anti-Tax cut Buffet on his team, tell me one issue where he's better than Davis, or even Bill Clinton for that matter.

[Consort]

A win by Cruz would be a springboard for the Dems 2004 campaign. The Clintons will likely back Cruz over Davis.

[Carry_Okie]

AS has already pulled a couple of truly amateur moves. Sixty days is a lifetime in politics.

[Torie]

What I get from your posts is a sense of impatience. You want it, and you want it now. It almost seems masculine.

[Torie]

Folks are so impatient. But as one poster suggested, if one were not impatient, what would one post about?

[deport]

This sure shoots a hole in the other WP article that said Bush supports all the candidates.

---

That in was a Reuters article that was picked up and published online at the WP. It was also available at the Reuters Asia site online. It would have been better had the article linked back to Reuters and not to the WP and shown in its entirety....

[JulieRNR21]

If they're still in single digits by Labor Day, they'll both quit.

That would be a smart decision for them & for the party!

[ImProudToBeAnAmerican]

Arnold is a bit of a wild card, but a winner with an 'R' next to his or her name goes in the plus column.

He's approaching the problems in CA like the savvy networking businessman he is.

Want to open a restaurant? Find a good chef.

Want to build a shopping mall? Hire a top architectural firm.

Need to fix CA's financial problems? Call a successful money man who isn't afraid to think of the box.

What does Davis think of when he looks at CA's mounting financial problems? Now, how can I play this to my political and financial advantage...

[Congressman Billybob]

The older I get, and the more I see in the real world, the less respect I have for the skills of even those reporters who do not share the political bigotry of the New York Times. Here we have two reporters for the Washington Times who are not in the habit of denigrating Republican candidates. But they miss the story entirely.

The assumption behind this entire article is that it matters whether Simon and McClintock remain in the race. Simon matters only slightly and McClintock matters not at all. Given the mechanics of this election, and the truth of all campaigning in a large state like California, and the small amount of money that Simon will raise, and the tiny amount that McClintock will raise, neither one will affect the outcome of this recall race.

These reporters have not talked to anyone who has direct experience in elections involving difficult ballots. They don't have a clue as to why that is important. Click below for a far more accurate analysis of the California recall and its probable outcome.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Nuts and Bolts in California" posted on FR, also published in San Francisco and on the UPI wire Wednesday.

[lilylangtree]

Katherine Graham's Washington Post article, a very liberal RAT stronghold. That says enough. Credibility problem regardless of whatever view the RAT paper takes.