USA Today/CNN/Gallup Polls Results (GWB back at 60% job approval)

USA Today ^ | August 7, 2003 | USA Today

[DrDeb]

Despite weeks of unprecedented Democrat/elite media attacks, President Bush earned a 60% approval rating (36% disapproval) in the most recent USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll -- a result within the margin of error of every Gallup poll taken since June 1 [Someone tell Dick "Chicken Little" Morris that the 'polling' sky is NOT falling, at least not on the President!]

NOTE: I wanted to publish the Gallup polling results as a counterpoint to the polling results that the media will be OVER-publicizing tomorrow: the most recent (extreme left leaning -- say, Madeline Albright) Pew Research Poll.

According to the Pew Poll (7/14-8/5), the President's approval rating has fallen to 53% (vs 37% disapproval). Two quick points about Pew's results:

1.) the bulk of the polling data was generated during the (politically) unstable period immediately during/after the 'yellow cake' nonsense AND the release of negative economic/jobs data. HOWEVER, since the last week of July, EVERY major poll has shown the President's ratings either stabilizing or rising!

2.) Pew overweights Democrats in its polling analysis. While it doesn't actually publicize its weighting formula, one can discern the inequitable treatment of Democrats vs Republicans by quickly averaging the approval ratings Pew does release. In this recent poll, Pew indicates that 91% of Republicans approve of the President's job performance; 30% of Democrats approve; and Independents are evenly split. If Pew used an equitable distribution of Republicans/Democrats, the President would actually have a 60% approval rating (JUST LIKE GALLUP)!

INTERESTING POLLING DATA The media just LOVES emphasizing the President's re-electability numbers vs a GENERIC Democrat -- a completely meaningless match-up.

Against REAL opponents, the President invariably eclipses the 50% benchmark and enjoys double digit leads over ALL Democrat opponents (including Hillary)!

Example:

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Poll 7/29-30/03

GWB 55% Dean 27%

GWB 54% Kerry 35%

GWB 52% Clinton 35%

MASON DIXON POLL: FLORIDA 7/29-31/03

GWB 51% Graham 39%

GWB 58% approval rating vs Graham's 47% approval rating

[NOTE: GWB earns a 58% approval rating even though Mason Dixon uses a weighting formula in Florida that skews 48% vs 43% Democrat:Republican]

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL: CONNECTICUT 7/23-29/03

GWB 47% Lieberman 44% (Lieberman: 51% approval rating vs GWB: 54% approval rating)

GWB 53% Dean 38%

GWB 53% Clinton 38%

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL: PENNSYLVANIA 7/30-8/4

GWB 60% approval rating (vs Rendell at 51%; Specter at 57%; Santorum at 56%))

GWB 54% Lieberman 38%

GWB 55% Kerry 37%

GWB 57% Dean 34%

BOTTOMLINE: Recent polling data suggests that the President is in excellent political shape, particularly when one considers that he is in the 3rd year of his first term -- a time when most president's are languishing in the 40% ranges (Reagan: 44% Clinton: 49%)

[Asclepius]

Someone reported-speculated-claimed that H.R. Clinton will enter the race in '04 if Bush's approval falls below 50%.

I almost hope that happens. I would love to see her run.

If the success of the Dean insurgency continues apace and unabated, she may have to make a move anyway.

[DrDeb]

Would you ping the DOSE list so that all BBs can enjoy these polling results!

[DrDeb]

I too believe that Hillary may make her move in '04; however, I believe such a move will be political suicide for both her and the Democrats. For this reason, I say "Bring her on!"

[.cnI redruM]

Interesting poll numbers. The one I want to see in 3 weeks is Bush v. Dean. Now that Howard is the Newsweek coverboy. another good hypothetical would be a Bush v. Gore.

Another interesting point. I see a total lack of difference in poll numbers between Dean, Kerry, Clinton or Graham. In other words, these polls seem to sugest that a certain portion of the population will vote Dem no matter who is batting against Bush. If their support remains stabalized under 40% this time next year, they might as well renominate Walter Mondale.

[Interesting Times]

Nice summary and analysis -- thanks.

[nana4bush]

Thanks for posting these numbers and your input. I love your BOTTOMLINE analysis.

[Southack]

The Democrats are in complete disarray right now.

Their mud didn't stick to the President (e.g. yellowcake/16 words), they didn't expect Arnold to run for gov in California, and Gore's big policy speech was an utter failure today (as in, nobody cared).

This polling data is likewise good news for us, as is the positive economic GDP and Productivity data.

[ohioWfan]

I will most certainly ping the DOSE list to observe your excellent work, and partake in the good news!

(They don't have anything to do tonight, anyway! :o)

Presidential Poll PING!!!

[ohioWfan]

I prefer George McGovern myself......... hehe

[Soaring Feather]

Bump the poll for our favourite President.

[prairiebreeze]

a time when most president's are languishing in the 40% ranges

Excellent observation and so true! I've been wondering a lot lately, just WHY such clamor is being made of a 59 or 60% rating? As you point out, that is a VERY good number on 3rd year. Likely the media is just trying to stir up more stink against the Pres. I'm hoping that continued economic recovery this fall and some outta-the-ballpark finds in Iraq by David Kay get those number back up closer to 70's. That would be sweeeeet!

Prairie

[swheats]

good news bump. We can tell Dick Morris the free fall has ended. This president doesn't panick at bad news.

[Mo1]

Well .. between Arnold's news and these poll numbers .. it explains why Chrissy Matthews looked like he was gonna cry on tonights show .. hehehehe

[Mo1]

In other words, these polls seem to sugest that a certain portion of the population will vote Dem no matter who is batting against Bush

That would be the far left and it's usually between 30-35%

[JusPasenThru]

I am deeply, deeply saddened by all of this.

[Fledermaus]

Here is how I read the polls concerning Bush vs. X in 2004 or even Hillary or Gore.

People know (okay, most they poll are probably morons - and I want to see the weight of each poll. How many Dems, women, men, GOP, black, white, etc.) that Hillary and Gore are not running so don't mind saying they'd prefer them if they ran.

And with a generic question like "Would you vote for Bush in 2004, CONSIDER someone else, or vote Dem?" it's not accurate since "moderates" and some folks that think they are sophisticated will say "Consider".

But then you switch to the Bush vs. the individual Dem candidates, even Hillary and Gore, and he creams them. Any President with 51-53% of the poll vs. a named candidate at this time is strong numbers.

Ronald Reagan only had a 54% approval rating just before the election of 1984 and polled about 51-48 against Mondale. Of course we know he won in a landslide both in popular votes and electoral votes.

All this early Dem crap is just that...crap. It comes down to one word in 2004 - Security.

No GOP voter is going to trust a Dem and I doubt they stay home due to other things. Some Dems are going to switch over because of security. And the swing voters are polling heavily for security.

As to the economy...a job and healthcare are worthless if some terrorist kills you and I think Americans are really thinking that way.

[BluH2o]

Now that Howard is the Newsweek coverboy.

Howard Dean has peaked ... way to soon. It's all down hill from here ... the liberal media will turn on him ... guaranteed. This will be a classic example of the media building a candidate up, becoming bored with him, then dismantling him piece by piece ... for no other reason than to demonstrate to themselves they can do it ... an example, Gary Hart. He, of course, made it easy for them ... remember "Monkey Business"?

[marylina]

(They don't have anything to do tonight, anyway! :o)

HAHAHA!

Thanks for posting these results, Deb, with your usual astute analysis!

[chris1]

Keep the Dems away from ledges and sharp esges.