[DrDeb]

Despite weeks of unprecedented Democrat/elite media attacks, President Bush earned a 60% approval rating (36% disapproval) in the most recent USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll -- a result within the margin of error of every Gallup poll taken since June 1 [Someone tell Dick "Chicken Little" Morris that the 'polling' sky is NOT falling, at least not on the President!]

NOTE: I wanted to publish the Gallup polling results as a counterpoint to the polling results that the media will be OVER-publicizing tomorrow: the most recent (extreme left leaning -- say, Madeline Albright) Pew Research Poll.

According to the Pew Poll (7/14-8/5), the President's approval rating has fallen to 53% (vs 37% disapproval). Two quick points about Pew's results:

1.) the bulk of the polling data was generated during the (politically) unstable period immediately during/after the 'yellow cake' nonsense AND the release of negative economic/jobs data. HOWEVER, since the last week of July, EVERY major poll has shown the President's ratings either stabilizing or rising!

2.) Pew overweights Democrats in its polling analysis. While it doesn't actually publicize its weighting formula, one can discern the inequitable treatment of Democrats vs Republicans by quickly averaging the approval ratings Pew does release. In this recent poll, Pew indicates that 91% of Republicans approve of the President's job performance; 30% of Democrats approve; and Independents are evenly split. If Pew used an equitable distribution of Republicans/Democrats, the President would actually have a 60% approval rating (JUST LIKE GALLUP)!

INTERESTING POLLING DATA The media just LOVES emphasizing the President's re-electability numbers vs a GENERIC Democrat -- a completely meaningless match-up.

Against REAL opponents, the President invariably eclipses the 50% benchmark and enjoys double digit leads over ALL Democrat opponents (including Hillary)!

Example:

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Poll 7/29-30/03

GWB 55% Dean 27%

GWB 54% Kerry 35%

GWB 52% Clinton 35%

MASON DIXON POLL: FLORIDA 7/29-31/03

GWB 51% Graham 39%

GWB 58% approval rating vs Graham's 47% approval rating

[NOTE: GWB earns a 58% approval rating even though Mason Dixon uses a weighting formula in Florida that skews 48% vs 43% Democrat:Republican]

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL: CONNECTICUT 7/23-29/03

GWB 47% Lieberman 44% (Lieberman: 51% approval rating vs GWB: 54% approval rating)

GWB 53% Dean 38%

GWB 53% Clinton 38%

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL: PENNSYLVANIA 7/30-8/4

GWB 60% approval rating (vs Rendell at 51%; Specter at 57%; Santorum at 56%))

GWB 54% Lieberman 38%

GWB 55% Kerry 37%

GWB 57% Dean 34%

BOTTOMLINE: Recent polling data suggests that the President is in excellent political shape, particularly when one considers that he is in the 3rd year of his first term -- a time when most president's are languishing in the 40% ranges (Reagan: 44% Clinton: 49%)

[Asclepius]

Someone reported-speculated-claimed that H.R. Clinton will enter the race in '04 if Bush's approval falls below 50%.

I almost hope that happens. I would love to see her run.

If the success of the Dean insurgency continues apace and unabated, she may have to make a move anyway.

[DrDeb]

Would you ping the DOSE list so that all BBs can enjoy these polling results!

[.cnI redruM]

Interesting poll numbers. The one I want to see in 3 weeks is Bush v. Dean. Now that Howard is the Newsweek coverboy. another good hypothetical would be a Bush v. Gore.

Another interesting point. I see a total lack of difference in poll numbers between Dean, Kerry, Clinton or Graham. In other words, these polls seem to sugest that a certain portion of the population will vote Dem no matter who is batting against Bush. If their support remains stabalized under 40% this time next year, they might as well renominate Walter Mondale.

[Interesting Times]

Nice summary and analysis -- thanks.

[Southack]

The Democrats are in complete disarray right now.

Their mud didn't stick to the President (e.g. yellowcake/16 words), they didn't expect Arnold to run for gov in California, and Gore's big policy speech was an utter failure today (as in, nobody cared).

This polling data is likewise good news for us, as is the positive economic GDP and Productivity data.

[prairiebreeze]

a time when most president's are languishing in the 40% ranges

Excellent observation and so true! I've been wondering a lot lately, just WHY such clamor is being made of a 59 or 60% rating? As you point out, that is a VERY good number on 3rd year. Likely the media is just trying to stir up more stink against the Pres. I'm hoping that continued economic recovery this fall and some outta-the-ballpark finds in Iraq by David Kay get those number back up closer to 70's. That would be sweeeeet!

Prairie

[swheats]

good news bump. We can tell Dick Morris the free fall has ended. This president doesn't panick at bad news.

[Fledermaus]

Here is how I read the polls concerning Bush vs. X in 2004 or even Hillary or Gore.

People know (okay, most they poll are probably morons - and I want to see the weight of each poll. How many Dems, women, men, GOP, black, white, etc.) that Hillary and Gore are not running so don't mind saying they'd prefer them if they ran.

And with a generic question like "Would you vote for Bush in 2004, CONSIDER someone else, or vote Dem?" it's not accurate since "moderates" and some folks that think they are sophisticated will say "Consider".

But then you switch to the Bush vs. the individual Dem candidates, even Hillary and Gore, and he creams them. Any President with 51-53% of the poll vs. a named candidate at this time is strong numbers.

Ronald Reagan only had a 54% approval rating just before the election of 1984 and polled about 51-48 against Mondale. Of course we know he won in a landslide both in popular votes and electoral votes.

All this early Dem crap is just that...crap. It comes down to one word in 2004 - Security.

No GOP voter is going to trust a Dem and I doubt they stay home due to other things. Some Dems are going to switch over because of security. And the swing voters are polling heavily for security.

As to the economy...a job and healthcare are worthless if some terrorist kills you and I think Americans are really thinking that way.

[Roscoe Karns]

McAwful was cackling over Bush's falling numbers just yesterday.

[ConsistentLibertarian]

Hi Deb,

Did you notice that only 36% think GW "deserves to be reelected". 42% think the country would probably be better off with someone else.

[publius1]

Perhaps you will want to point out that QUINNIPIAC, Marist, and (of course) the NY Times also oversample Democrats and urban dwellers. We've seen this over and over when they do the NY races--and then, of course, the loud echo-chamber of the press tries to validate the results with constant repetition (frequency always substituting for truth in the media).

Thank you so much for posting yours!

[KC_Conspirator]

Someone tell Dick "Chicken Little" Morris that the 'polling' sky is NOT falling, at least not on the President!]

The local ABC radio station has been hammering Dubya's 53% Quinnipiac numbers all day, insinuating that everyone hates Dubya. Now late July and especially August are awful times to poll since so many Republican families are on vacation (as well as Congress). Dick Morris knows this and should know better.

[Doe Eyes]

I forget, is USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll one of the polls we believe?

[Davea]

These poll numbers can't be true. Bush lied about the uranium/Niger thing!!! Iraq is a quagmire!!!

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[justshe]

Excellent work, Dr. Deb!

[Destro]

When did we conservatives become poll driven?

[rewrite]

Are you series? This is Hugh!!! (nyuk! nyuk! nyuk!)

[rwfromkansas]

Great work.

Where did you get those numbers for Clinton and Bush? Pollingreport.com maybe?

[Brimack34]

What would the numbers look like if Pres. Bush ran against Rush Limbaugh??