Bush campaign strategist says 'election will be tough'

The Dallas Morning News ^ | July 26, 2003 | By DAVID JACKSON / The Dallas Morning News

[MeekOneGOP]

Bush campaign strategist says 'election will be tough'

He believes divided electorate may make race as close as 2000

07/27/2003

By DAVID JACKSON / The Dallas Morning News

NEW YORK – One of President Bush's top campaign strategists warned fellow Republicans on Saturday that the 2004 race could be every bit as close as the overtime contest of 2000.

"Ladies and gentlemen, this next election will be tough," campaign manager Ken Mehlman told the summer meeting of the Republican National Committee. "It will be an incredible challenge. It will include difficult days."

Some of those days have already arrived, as Democrats pound Mr. Bush over unemployment, the rising death toll in Iraq, and the use of intelligence to justify the war on Saddam Hussein.

AP

Campaign manager Ken Mehlman told members of the Republican National Committee to take nothing for granted.

Mr. Mehlman and other campaign officials said they keys to a victory are defending Mr. Bush's successes in fighting terrorism and reviving the economy and building a strong organization down to the local level

As the RNC wrapped up the weekend meeting in the city that will host next year's convention, the Republicans face what many analysts see as a still-closely divided electorate, despite GOP successes in the 2002 congressional races and Mr. Bush's high-but-slipping approval ratings.

Democrats are seeking to dent that popularity by questioning whether Mr. Bush exaggerated intelligence to justify the invasion of Iraq. They are challenging the administration's credibility on a variety of fronts, such as the higher-than-projected budget deficits and costs of occupying Iraq.

"When George W. Bush ran for president three years ago, he promised us an era of responsibility in Washington," said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a presidential candidate. "Instead, we've got an era of irresponsibility unparalleled in our history."

Mr. Mehlman said many of the Democratic critics supported military action against Mr. Hussein, calling their criticism a reversal designed "for short-term political gain among Democrat primary voters."

"If they're willing to sacrifice principle on this, just imagine what they'll say and do to try to get elected," Mr. Mehlman said.

Mr. Bush's job approval ratings remain well over 50 percent, normally a threshold for re-election. But Republican officials said they want to ward off any notion of complacency, especially as the Democratic field narrows to a single challenger early next year.

"Our numbers look good today," Mr. Mehlman said. "But as we've predicted for some time, those numbers will come down. We must prepare for an election every bit as close and every bit as hard fought as the 2000 election."

To an extent, the Republicans are going up against history. No president who lost the popular vote, as Mr. Bush did against Al Gore, has won a second term in the White House.

Mr. Mehlman pointed out the Republicans have not re-elected a president and kept a congressional majority in the same election since 1924.

"The last time that happened, Calvin Coolidge was sitting in the Oval Office," Mr. Mehlman said.

As for the divided nature of modern politics, Mr. Mehlman pointed to states that went for one party or the other in at least three of the last five presidential elections. The result: 273 electoral votes for Republicans, 265 for Democrats. A candidate needs 270 to win.

Mr. Mehlman said that next year's election presents both "an opportunity" and "a challenge" and that Republicans need to be in position to seize the moment.

RNC officials said a new get-out-the-vote effort keyed their successes in November, when Republicans re-captured the Senate and increased their majority in the U.S. House. They said they will need an even better effort to translate that into a full Republican realignment.

"2004 will show us if the incremental gains in 2002 are enduring," said Nicolle Devenish, communications director for Mr. Bush's campaign. "And anyone who says they know the answer to that doesn't know."

E-mail djackson@dallasnews.com

---

Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/latestnews/stories/072703dnnatgop.a91f3.html

[MeekOneGOP]

Bush/Cheney '04 Official Website Opens

Here is the Website

[MeekOneGOP]

I see that The Dallas Morning News is keeping their top Bush-basher busy (David Jackson).

[MeekOneGOP]

Democrats are seeking to dent that popularity by questioning whether Mr. Bush exaggerated intelligence to justify the invasion of Iraq. They are challenging the administration's credibility on a variety of fronts, such as the higher-than-projected budget deficits and costs of occupying Iraq.

"When George W. Bush ran for president three years ago, he promised us an era of responsibility in Washington," said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a presidential candidate. "Instead, we've got an era of irresponsibility unparalleled in our history."

Mr. Mehlman said many of the Democratic critics supported military action against Mr. Hussein, calling their criticism a reversal designed "for short-term political gain among Democrat primary voters."

"If they're willing to sacrifice principle on this, just imagine what they'll say and do to try to get elected," Mr. Mehlman said.

Yep ! The 'RATS are incensed that Bush is killing children in Iraq !!!:

Saddam sons killed in loo [bathroom]

$30 Million worth of trash

Uday Hussein, left, and Qusay Hussein

PMSNBC link to a Video of the pics. Leave it PMSNBC to hunt down some Iraqis that don't believe it's Uday and Qusay, thus discrediting our forces and the Bush administration. Typical. (Note: They have actually taken THAT video off now! Other videos linked now).

[MeekOneGOP]

The 'RATS are incensed that Bush is killing children in Iraq !!!

Even little tommy da$$hole is . . .

Saddened, deeply saddened . . .

[Diogenesis]

"This just in. There is only ONE (1) reason that this may be tough.
This week, a serial murderer and terrorist found new safe harbor.

Those who do not learn from the PAST, will repeat it.

[Puppage]

Of course it'll be tough.....how do you defend yourself againts LYING, CHEATING, THIEVING, RATS?

[Types_with_Fist]

The election WILL be tough. Tougher than anyone here anticipates. The leftists lie, the leftists cheap. The leftists are wrong about what they say and how they say it. Unfortunately, none of that will matter. All that will matter, in the end, is whether or not their tactics work.

[MeekOneGOP]

Yep ! Not to mention the fact that the GOP not only has to defeat the 'RAT candidates, they also have to overcome the willing support from the Leftist enabling media too !!

[MEG33]

Beware of complacency .I thought Clinton could not win.

[anniegetyourgun]

And an ignorant electorate.

[firewalk]

bttt

[LS]

Look, Mehlman can be 100% correct, and Bush still have a blowout. If Bush wins 1 million more votes nationally (which means the Dem loses 1 million more votes), think of the incredible swing of states such as NM (335 total votes difference), Iowa (about 5,000), Wisconsin (about 11,000), Oregon, and even Pennsylvania and Michigan. A shift of PA and any two of the other states pretty much puts Bush over 310 electoral votes; and a shift of all of them is blowout territory.

All of this with a slow-growing economy, battle deaths in Iraq, harping on WMDs, and no Saddam. What is the economy starts to add jobs by January, battle deaths start to slow, several reports on WMDs appear---which will never convince Dems, but will likely justify the war easily in the mind of the public---and Saddam is caught? You go from blowout to landslide.

On the other hand, to be fair, if none of these things change, indeed Bush is in for a tough election, because the whining right will stay home due to CFR and health care (which still has not become a reality), the middle will have forgotten 9/11, and the left will have increased in its viciousness and desperation.

So I could see it go either way, from a total landslide to a narrow defeat.

[LS]

Despite what you or I think, this plays very well with the public. The large share of the voting population does not see a link between Abbas and Yassir; they only see "action" on "peace in the Middle East" and, in general, believe Bush is advancing that cause.

If you, or any Dem, thinks that the "middle east peace process" will be Bush's undoing, you haven't been reading the polls. Indeed, Bush has effectively neutered the Dems on this because the ONLY thing they can do would be to call for TOUGHER actions against Abbas and Arafat---which, of course, they won't do. So that issue is null and void.

[Cobra64]

Beware of complacency .I thought Clinton could not win.

And Jimmah Carter!

[MEG33]

Must you remind me!

[ex-Texan]

It ought to be Bush and Condi Rice. Best chance to win in my humble opinion.

[verity]

And an ignorant electorate.

This is my greatest concern.

[deport]

"Our numbers look good today," Mr. Mehlman said. "But as we've predicted for some time, those numbers will come down. We must prepare for an election every bit as close and every bit as hard fought as the 2000 election."

---

If'n President Bush is re-elected I don't think it will close. History shows that Presidents that are re-elected usually win by fairly large EC numbers, not a squeaker like in 2000.

[jpsb]

The election will be tough. The GOP is now on record for supporting open borders, importing cheap goods from low labor countries, and out sourcing IT and service jobs. Why should any middle class people vote GOP?

Now poor people that are getting a rebate on taxes they never payed might.
Any maybe the homosexuals that want to be married might.
And the GOP can probably count on a few illegal alien votes
Plus the votes of the CEO's of fortune 500.

But I don't think that will carry the day. Keep sending our jobs over seas GOP and you to will be unemployed. Count on it.