I see that The Dallas Morning News is keeping their top Bush-basher busy (David Jackson).
All of this with a slow-growing economy, battle deaths in Iraq, harping on WMDs, and no Saddam. What is the economy starts to add jobs by January, battle deaths start to slow, several reports on WMDs appear---which will never convince Dems, but will likely justify the war easily in the mind of the public---and Saddam is caught? You go from blowout to landslide.
On the other hand, to be fair, if none of these things change, indeed Bush is in for a tough election, because the whining right will stay home due to CFR and health care (which still has not become a reality), the middle will have forgotten 9/11, and the left will have increased in its viciousness and desperation.
So I could see it go either way, from a total landslide to a narrow defeat.