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Latino vote in '04 is a big enchilada
Christian Science Monitor ^ | 14 July 2003 | Linda Feldmann

Posted on 07/14/2003 8:07:50 PM PDT by JackelopeBreeder

Democrats make new bid for Hispanic voters - who are now more numerous, independent.

WASHINGTON – Among all the what-ifs of the contested 2000 presidential election, here's one: In Miami, the Bush campaign spent more than $800,000 on Spanish-language television ads and Al Gore spent nothing.

If Vice President Gore had fought as hard as George W. Bush did for the Latino vote in Florida, could he have won that critical state? No one will ever know, but Democrats wish they could have that decision over again. Money was partly to blame; the Gore campaign just didn't have as much as Bush, and chose instead to focus its Florida resources in Tampa and Orlando, where strategists thought they had the best chance of picking up votes.

But the lack of outreach to Miami Latinos - now a far more politically diverse population than just conservative Cuban immigrants - clearly reflected "a misreading of the potential benefit of outreach to the Hispanic community in some of the key battleground states," says Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University.

The Democrats won't make that mistake again, especially now that Hispanics are the largest minority population in America, at nearly 40 million people. Last Thursday, congressional Democrats unveiled a policy agenda aimed at wooing that voter bloc, highlighting the economy, education, healthcare, civil rights, and immigration.

Democrats have historically commanded a majority of the Latino vote, but not as resoundingly as they win the black vote, which is more than 90 percent Democratic. In 2000, Bush won more of the Hispanic vote (35 percent) than previous Republican presidential nominees. In that election, Hispanics represented 7 percent of voters and blacks 10 percent of voters. If noncitizen Hispanics in the US were to gain citizenship and register, the number of Hispanic voters would double, according to the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington. Hispanics - people of Latin American or Spanish descent - are America's fastest-growing demographic group. During the 1990s, their population grew 58 percent.

Thus, as never before, the battle is on for this massive swath of voters and potential voters. Democrats acknowledge that their Hispanic agenda contains few new initiatives, and is instead a reaffirmation of their commitment to Hispanic empowerment. Their aim is to make Hispanic voters feel included as part of the larger American mosaic while at the same time targeting issues that particularly affect Latinos, such as immigration.

"Democrats know that Hispanic values are American values," the Democratic plan begins. "If they [the Democrats] are indeed going to do something, they had better be serious," says Lionel Sosa, a veteran Hispanic media consultant in San Antonio. "They have been giving lip service to the Hispanic vote forever."

He predicts the Democrats will try to woo Hispanic votes with more handouts, and calls that an antiquated approach, dating from the 1960s. Then, Hispanics began identifying with the Democratic Party because of President Kennedy's Roman Catholic faith and his positioning of the party with the poor and downtrodden. Now, says Mr. Sosa, the Latino community is much more diverse; more Latinos are calling themselves political independents than in the past. "The message they're identifying with is opportunity, inclusion in the American dream, being treated as equal Americans," he says.

One area where the Bush administration is seen as having let down Hispanics is in relations with Mexico. During the 2000 campaign, Bush promised to make Latin America a foreign policy priority, and as president he followed up with an initiative to grant immigration amnesty to 3 million Mexicans in the US. But the Sept. 11 attacks halted that momentum, and now US-Mexican relations are strained over a variety of issues.

A recent nationwide poll by Sergio Bendixen, a Democratic pollster in Florida, found that 69 percent of Hispanic voters believe Bush has not kept his promise on Latin America. But in the end, it is the same issues that Americans as a whole care about that top the list for Hispanic voters: education (31 percent), jobs and the economy (29), healthcare (10), and Social Security (8).

Within the Democratic Party, the Hispanic vote is also taking on unprecedented importance. For the first time, the first big multi-state primary date - Feb. 3, 2004 - will include two states with large Hispanic populations, New Mexico and Arizona. Dubbed "Hispanic Tuesday," these primaries are presenting the Democrats with an opportunity to fine-tune their message to Hispanic voters.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; elections; hispanicvote; latino; pandering; primaries; voterdrives; votes
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Somewhat shallow thinking in places, but a few disturbing points as well.
1 posted on 07/14/2003 8:07:50 PM PDT by JackelopeBreeder
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2 posted on 07/14/2003 8:10:02 PM PDT by Support Free Republic (Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
Maybe the Latinos in Florida voted with Elian on their minds.
3 posted on 07/14/2003 8:12:31 PM PDT by shiva
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To: Free the USA; Libertarianize the GOP; B4Ranch; madfly; FITZ; Reaganwuzthebest; hsmomx3; ...
This could be ugly. The last thing I can stomach is any of the current crop of lame losers on the Dem side getting into the White House.

On the other hand, watching the Pubs give away the country through amnesties or open borders would be just as disastrous.

How do we counter this?
4 posted on 07/14/2003 8:12:35 PM PDT by JackelopeBreeder (Proud to be a loco gringo armed vigilante terrorist cucaracha!)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
Let the Mexicans take over and you and I run the new country.
5 posted on 07/14/2003 8:14:59 PM PDT by Marine Inspector (DHS BCBP II)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
If Vice President Gore had fought as hard as George W. Bush did for the Latino vote in Florida, could he have won that critical state?

I seriously doubt it. Clinton and Gore won a sizable majority of the Cuban-American vote in 1996. In 2000, George W. Bush won about 88% of the Cuban-American vote. The difference was Elian Gonzales. The only thing Gore would have accomplished by advertizing in Spanish language media in Florida prior to the 2000 election would be to remind Cubans-Americans about Elian and vote even more heavily for Governor Bush for president.

6 posted on 07/14/2003 8:18:42 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
Here in Oklahoma we vote on 3 February, but the number of Hispanics is very small. Frankly I resent the inference that 3 Feb is Hispanic Tuesday!

7 posted on 07/14/2003 8:20:09 PM PDT by PhiKapMom (Bush Cheney '04 - VICTORY IN '04 -- $4 for '04 - www.GeorgeWBush.com/donate/)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
With the exception of the Cuban vote in Florida, the Hispanic vote is going to be bought by the highest bidder. Politicians will use deterioration of my personal rights, my money, and my quality of life to do it. What is occurring is development of a monster.
8 posted on 07/14/2003 8:21:33 PM PDT by RLK
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To: JackelopeBreeder
On the other hand, watching the Pubs give away the country through amnesties or open borders would be just as disastrous

There hasn't been an amnesty yet. The Bush administration's trial balloons in 2001 got shot down. The reason is opposition by Republicans in the House. Perhaps you would prefer Republicans stay at home so DemocRATS can elect a majority in Congress and a DemocRAT president so we would definitely have have an amnesty agreement with Mexico.

9 posted on 07/14/2003 8:22:21 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: Marine Inspector
I can see it now. Within a month some slippery-tongued liberal pundit will turn "Hispanic Tuesday" into "Taco Tuesday" or "Tortilla Tuesday" and claim the slur came from "unnamed operatives" in the Bush campaign...
10 posted on 07/14/2003 8:22:35 PM PDT by JackelopeBreeder (Proud to be a loco gringo armed vigilante terrorist cucaracha!)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
LMAO
11 posted on 07/14/2003 8:25:01 PM PDT by Marine Inspector (DHS BCBP II)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
How do we counter this?

By promoting our values.

12 posted on 07/14/2003 8:34:50 PM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham
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To: JackelopeBreeder
If noncitizen Hispanics in the US were to gain citizenship and register, the number of Hispanic voters would double

If this happens, Conservatives will never have the numbers to beat back the shock troops of the left on election day. I just can't believe GWB doesn't see this.

Amnesty needs to be defeated at all cost.

13 posted on 07/14/2003 8:37:12 PM PDT by Missouri
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To: JackelopeBreeder
This is why everyone in Washington DC is in buy-a-vote mode so early. This is also why the Pentagon has ordered the creation of a giant space eraser to eliminate the border between Mexico and the southwest United States.
14 posted on 07/14/2003 8:38:21 PM PDT by AD from SpringBay
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To: JackelopeBreeder
I can see it now. Within a month some slippery-tongued liberal pundit will turn "Hispanic Tuesday" into "Taco Tuesday" or "Tortilla Tuesday" and claim the slur came from "unnamed operatives" in the Bush campaign...

You are spot on! Sad to say, however, if they ever have a Tequila Tuesday or a Tequila and Taco Tuesday or a Tortilla and Tequila Thursday....

color me gone and there.

Snores, Senior!

LVM

15 posted on 07/14/2003 8:45:59 PM PDT by LasVegasMac
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To: Missouri
I just can't believe GWB doesn't see this.

---------------------

Believe it. Bush isn't very bright. Also, Bush has some sort of pro-hispanic personal obsession that also enters in here. He also believes that because he can speak a few words of halting spanish to the paens like they do in Texas when running for office, that they will slobber on themselves and he will be will be considered one of the boys. He has a surprize coming. He's building a new Democratic socialist coalition.

16 posted on 07/14/2003 8:47:23 PM PDT by RLK
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To: JackelopeBreeder
"How do we counter this?"

Aren't there any latinos or mexicanos who will publically affirm that this type of BS will not get their vote? If someone like FOX News or Rush or somebody would make the effort to find these people and put them on the air for the country to see and hear, maybe it would change things. At least it would be a start.

17 posted on 07/14/2003 8:48:27 PM PDT by Paulie
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: Paleo Conservative
I'm thinking beyond 2004 to 2008. I'm fairly certain the Dems are, too. They know that barring a miracle, like catching Dubya naked with Yassir Arafat, they don't stand much of a chance of winning '04. Their current candidates are goofs. They're positioning themselves for '08 when Dubya is no longer a factor -- and I really don't see any strong candidates on the Republican side yet to step into Dubya's boots.

So the Dems put the pressure on during this election cycle, something really divisive like the border issue. Let's say the Republicans cave to the pressure and make promises to the Mexicans now -- and yes I said Mexican, not Latino. That's where the biggest block of votes is.

So there's talk of amnesties, unlimited guest workers, increased family reunification, ad nauseum and etc. After the election the House and Senate kill that nonsense, but you have a big chunk of voters who rightly feel like they got stiffed by the Republicans. Payback would really suck next time around.

In 2008 we'd have a witches' coven led by the Hildabeest moving into the fancy real estate along Pennsylvania Avenue.
19 posted on 07/14/2003 8:53:59 PM PDT by JackelopeBreeder (Proud to be a loco gringo armed vigilante terrorist cucaracha!)
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To: JackelopeBreeder
You'r reading my mind.
20 posted on 07/14/2003 8:57:52 PM PDT by moehoward
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