Ingraham: Bush Not Invincible

The Bushies have already raised $35 million dollars! The President's approval ratings are still hovering around 60 percent! Our forces have already captured most of the thugs in its Iraqi deck of "most wanted" cards! The "l" word is beginning to reverberate through political circles--i.e., it will be Bush in a landslide in 2004. This comes from many of the same chatterers who were saying that John McCain presented a serious threat to Bush in the 2000 primaries.

Perhaps this presidential election will be a snoozer. Perhaps the President will run away with the thing--taking even the electoral prizes of California and New York. But right now that prospect seems far from certain. And there is a chance that President Bush will find himself with a base that is unmotivated, which spells catastrophe for any candidate.

Let's look at where we are. Yes, the country trusts this president with our military. Yes, it appreciates his aggressive stance in the war on terror. Yes, it thinks he's doing the right thing on taxes. But along with all those positives, there are undeniable negatives:

1. Unemployment is disturbingly high. (It may be a "lagging indicator" but tell that to the millions of people coast-to-coast who are out of work) 2. The war in Iraq is "over" except that we have a soldier a day getting killed over there. 3. Democrats, as we see with the Howard Dean boomlet, are energized, infuriated, and have the media on their side.

Even considering these stormclouds, the President still has a lot going for him--including a lackluster Democrat field. But this only means that it is critical for him to make absolutely certain that his base--the conservatives--are really, really happy. I am here to report to you that there is trouble in River City.

Why? Consider the response President--no, candidate--George Bush gave recently when a reporter pressed him on whether he supported amending the Constitution to ban gay marriage: "I don't know if it's necessary yet. Let's let the lawyers look at the full ramifications of the recent Supreme Court hearing. What I do support is the notion that marriage is between a man and a woman."

On the heels on one of the most outrageous Supreme Court decision in decades, which established a Constitutional right to homosexual sodomy, the President fumbled. He punted. He referenced his lawyers. Not good.

The salient point here is not about gay rights per se, it is that President Bush's comments indicated that the Administration increasingly views its conservative supporters as a political embarrassment, a group whose expectations need to be managed. This is a colossal mistake. Without the support of millions of conservatives who showed up to vote for him in 2000, George Bush would be spending a lot more time clearing brush in Crawford. We all know how his father's political calculation to raise taxes sat with conservatives--we never forgave him. (One could almost hear the conversation Bush the elder had with himself at the time--"Gee, I hate to break my 'no new taxes pledge,' but even if I bail on that, where are conservative going to go? Vote for that Clinton fellow?! Nah.")

After eight years of the Clinton follies, conservatives were convinced that George W. Bush was not his father's son--the ghost of '92 had scared sense into him about offending "the base." On the issue of tax cuts, President Bush certainly learned. He has brilliantly backed the Democrats into a corner, enacting a tax cut that no one, even a year ago, thought had a chance. But conservatism cannot survive on tax cuts alone.

For weeks, conservatives from across the country have been filling the email box of my radio show with doubts about where this Administration is taking us. On the size of the government, one listner from Seattle asked, "How is it that the number of employees at the Homeland Security Department is greater than the aggregate of all the agencies that were folded into it?" A law student in Boston wrote: "Our troops are still getting shot at by thugs and Saddam loyalists in Iraq, and now we're about to nation-build in Liberia?!!" Scores of others wrote to complain about the Administration's $400 billion "triangulation" strategy on prescription drug coverage for seniors--a move that Dick Morris desribed as "brilliantly Clintonian." There is also a constant cry about the President's anemic efforts to curb illegal immigration. Last month, the Bush Treasury Department rammed through regulations that permit banks to accept "Mexican consular ID cards" as legal identification. (Mexican officials issue these cards by the thousands every week to illegals living here.)

But it was the President's dodge on the marriage amendment that seemed to touch off a mini-revolt in the heartland. Even people (like me) who think state laws against sodomy are idiotic were upset. In the words of one fed-up stay-at-home mom in Kansas: "What's the point of doing the grassroots work for conservative candidates if this is what we're getting?"

Some of this frustration is no doubt overblown. And there is some truth to the statement that no politician will ever be conservative enough for the hardcore types. Nevertheless, as smart and politically savvy as Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and other top Bush strategists are, they need to remember that conservatives need more than lip service to volunteer to do the nitty-gritty work that wins elections. Knocking on doors, passing our pamphlets, answering phones, and manning voter registration desks for Republican candidates is the sort of work done by people who believe that America is about more than tax cuts and the war on terror.

They believe that the Supreme Court's decision upholding the use of race to promote diversity in universities is an insult to the Constitution and our goal of a color-blind society. (The Administration quietly praised the Court's holding.) They believe that while all Americans should be treated with dignity and decency, marriage is a sacred institution in the eyes of God. They believe that we should use our superior technology and appropriate manpower to keep our borders secure.

The President won the support of many across the country precisely because he defied his elite roots in his style and substance. Unlike Al Gore, he was a regular guy who just happened to go to Yale, Harvard and be raised in prominent, wealthy political family.

Now, more than ever, conservatives need to hear from that regular guy--strong, sensible, and unafraid of the scorn of the elites. The big tent philosophy is a smart one--but the tent cannot stay up for long without the proper grounding stakes.

I live in Tucson, and I am furious about the lack of urgency with the immigration problem.

So are a lot of people. Bush could very well face some opposition in his own party due to this one issue in the primaries, or from a third party candidate next fall.

Illegal immigration is a serious issue, and it looks like little is being done about it.

The CP is smaller and less viable than the Libertarian Party, which has less than zero chance of electing a cadidate for anything higher than dog catcher in some tiny hamlet.

The Constitution Party has only been around since 1999, that is why it is small (it came from the Taxpayers Party which was started in about 92). The Libertarians have ideas that are in the majority NOWHERE in the country. The Constitution Party has views that can win elections, maybe not in Massachusetts or Minnesota, but in a lot of Southern and Mid-Western states. Once that happens and the ideas work, doors open.

Those you, who whine and whinge and think that voting for the fringe is going to get you anything at all, are delusional and playing into the hands of those ( the Dems ! ) whom you claim to hate. And no, even a Hillary presidency is NOT going to cause this nation to have a civil war.

This part of your post is just mean-spirited tripe that ascribes to us traits and actions that are not factual. It needs no response, I highlight it just to show the people on this forum how ugly and hateful CP opponents are.

The constitution party is going to accomplish alot. It is going to assure that we will either get Hillary, or Dean in the White House. Then the disgruntled who don't get everything they want will see what a real socialist government is like.

At least the GOP Congress would fight her when she did the exact same things Bush is doing. Gridlock is good!

Nobody anywhere or at anytime is unbeatable.

True. Anything can happen leading up to an election. It's kind of the equivalent of the worst team can beat the best team in one game, if everything falls that way.

That's why the enthusiasm for a Dean candidacy makes me nervous. It might increase the odds for a GWB win, but it wound be awful for the country to let Dean that close...it's just not worth the risk.

The Constitution Party has views that can win elections, maybe not in Massachusetts or Minnesota, but in a lot of Southern and Mid-Western states.

Lot of people are taking the CP with a grain of salt at the moment. Third parties get shrugged off for some reason, especially after the weird antics of Perot. But they may eventually become the place for conservatives if Republicans move too far to the left.

It may come to pass. If so, it will be lack of leadership from George W. Bush, while he waits for word from the lawyers ...
Why does he not care about the damage the recent court decisions have done to the Republic ?
He obviously does not think it his job to criticize a court that sodomized not only Texas but the rest of the country.

Don't you love a farce; my fault I fear
I thought that you'd want what I want - sorry my dear
But where are the clowns - send in the clowns
Don't bother they're here

Isn't it rich, isn't it queer
Losing my timing this late in my career
But where are the clowns - send in the clowns
Well maybe next year

I'm glad I'm not alone here, Many FREEPERs, unfortunately , still are rather blinkered, where Rush is concerned. I worry about them.

I worry about Bush. Going into the last election he was 7 percent favorite. After all the Democratic shenanigans nation wide, W lost the popular vote, and damn near the election. Buchanan seriously brought up all the crucial issues during the campaign, Bush and Gore babbled, while the Republican party when neocon

Based in W presidential campaigning performance, in what should have been a shoo in , I'm concerned that he won't pull it off again. He's seriously disturbing the base. Giving a half a loaf to the the Democrats and then a half a loaf to the Republicans. He only has four years to get things done, why sell out?

Rush is doing a great job and some credit him for W 's election. Next time may not be that easy.

Frist has been a more successful legislative leader than Trent Lott-- with the exception of a handful of judicial nominees. (Then again, Lott wouldn't have gotten those through either.) We now have signed legislation that has taken away most of the Democrats' issues while, simultaneously, given us tax reductions (instead of increases of Bush I and Clinton). There are two or three ways they could get those appointments around the committee blockade and I am hopeful that one might be used (after all, the Dems would have no problem with recess appointments if they were in the same situation). All in all, the Dems, with the exception of the court appointments, have gotten little they can campaign about and we have most of what we want. Quite a contrast from 1993 when tax hikes were passed in the middle of the night!

Bump, you could not have stated it better.

If the "Republican" President is going to spend money like it is going out of style, expand every governemnt department and create more, inflate the currency, and have US troops in every mudhole on Earth then I say let's get President Hillary. At least the GOP Congress would fight her when she did the exact same things Bush is doing. Gridlock is good!

Bush is not totally in the 'game' where it counts, like upholding the Constitution . The unconstitutional Michigan affirmative action and the Texas sodomy decisions are happening on his watch, and he's wishy washy on it all. Doesn't seem to bother him, after all he set the example by signing onto the unconstitutional campaign finance reform law.

It only takes a few mistakes to the lose the game, and Bush is making more than need be. If he goes into Liberia and compromises Iraq with 'Old Europe', he's toast.

Great post!

"We have nowhere else to go."

If that's a true statement, then there is no real purpose to a website like Free Republic other than to milk the base for data. If the politics here is "grass roots," then the "nowhere else to go" mindset would mean we are just cows grazing on that grass, not sowers or reapers.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think the Bush operatives (Rove, et al) are getting a bit cocky in their confidence. It shows the importance of having two viable parties with clearly distinct perspectives to put before the voters. I agree that the Dems are energized by Howard Dean, but the energy is largely hate and negativity, and no party has ever won on a message of hate and negativity. Because the Democrats are choking on their own bile, Bush should win in a walk. But the ease of his lead can produce complacency.

I would hope that Bush would use some of his political capital to talk to Americans about what is right with this country. I've started a book about Ronald Reagan called "The Politics of Freedom," and up front it demonstrates from a content analysis of Reagan's speeches that liberty and the principles of our founding were woven into the fabric of just about everything Reagan said. Bush needs to do the same thing. When I saw a man-on-the-street segment on Fox on July 4th asking people who wrote the Declaration of Independence, and people came up with such answers as, "Some guys in white wigs," "Abraham Lincoln," "George Washington," "John Hancock" (close, but no cigar), and "Tom Something...," there is a serious need to be educating our ignorant countrymen about the greatness of America. Bush likes to say, "Leave no child behind" when it comes to education. How about "Leave no citizen behind" when it comes to learning to appreciate this nation.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.