What 2004 Is Shaping Up To Be.

Bennett, Robert - (R - UT) Class III 431 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5444 Web Form: bennett.senate.gov/e-mail_form.html

Bond, Christopher - (R - MO) Class III 274 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5721 Web Form: bond.senate.gov/contact/contactme.cfm

Boxer, Barbara - (D - CA) Class III 112 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3553 Web Form: boxer.senate.gov/contact

Breaux, John - (D - LA) Class III 503 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4623 E-mail: senator@breaux.senate.gov

Brownback, Sam - (R - KS) Class III 303 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6521 Web Form: brownback.senate.gov/CMEmailMe.htm

Bunning, Jim - (R - KY) Class III 316 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4343 Web Form: bunning.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.Email

Campbell, Ben - (R - CO) Class III 380 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5852 Web Form: campbell.senate.gov/email.htm

Crapo, Michael - (R - ID) Class III 239 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6142 Web Form: crapo.senate.gov

Daschle, Thomas - (D - SD) Class III 509 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2321 Web Form: daschle.senate.gov/webform.html

Dodd, Christopher - (D - CT) Class III 448 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2823 Web Form: dodd.senate.gov/webmail/

Dorgan, Byron - (D - ND) Class III 713 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2551 E-mail: senator@dorgan.senate.gov

Edwards, John - (D - NC) Class III 225 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3154 Web Form: edwards.senate.gov/contact.html

Feingold, Russell - (D - WI) Class III 506 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5323 E-mail: russell_feingold@feingold.senate.gov

Fitzgerald, Peter - (R - IL) Class III 555 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2854 Web Form: fitzgerald.senate.gov/contact/contact_email.htm

Graham, Bob - (D - FL) Class III 524 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3041 Web Form: graham.senate.gov/email.html

Grassley, Chuck - (R - IA) Class III 135 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3744 Web Form: grassley.senate.gov/webform.htm

Gregg, Judd - (R - NH) Class III 393 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3324 E-mail: mailbox@gregg.senate.gov

Hollings, Ernest - (D - SC) Class III 125 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6121 Web Form: hollings.senate.gov/email.html

Inouye, Daniel - (D - HI) Class III 722 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3934 Web Form: inouye.senate.gov/webform.html

Leahy, Patrick - (D - VT) Class III 433 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4242 E-mail: senator_leahy@leahy.senate.gov

Lincoln, Blanche - (D - AR) Class III 355 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4843 Web Form: lincoln.senate.gov/webform.html

McCain, John - (R - AZ) Class III 241 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2235 Web Form: mccain.senate.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=Contact.Home

Mikulski, Barbara - (D - MD) Class III 709 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4654 Web Form: mikulski.senate.gov/mailform.htm

Miller, Zell - (D - GA) Class III 257 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING Washington DC 20510 (202) 224-3643 Web Form: miller.senate.gov/email.htm

Murkowski, Lisa - (R - AK) Class III 322 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6665 Web Form: murkowski.senate.gov/

Murray, Patty - (D - WA) Class III 173 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2621 Web Form: murray.senate.gov/email/index.cfm

Nickles, Don - (R - OK) Class III 133 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5754 Web Form: nickles.senate.gov/contact/contact.cfm

Reid, Harry - (D - NV) Class III 528 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3542 Web Form: reid.senate.gov/email_form.cfm

Schumer, Charles - (D - NY) Class III 313 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6542 Web Form: schumer.senate.gov/webform.html

Shelby, Richard - (R - AL) Class III 110 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5744 E-mail: senator@shelby.senate.gov

Specter, Arlen - (R - PA) Class III 711 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4254 E-mail: arlen_specter@specter.senate.gov

Voinovich, George - (R - OH) Class III 317 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3353 Web Form: voinovich.senate.gov/

Wyden, Ron - (D - OR) Class III 516 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5244 Web Form: wyden.senate.gov/contact.html

Incumbent Mike Easley, Democrat Seeking re-election Yes Primary oppostion Rumored but unlikely Election margin 52-47 over ex-mayor Richard Vinroot

Incumbent Bob Wise, Democrat Seeking re-election Maybe Primary oppostion Sec State Joe Manchin has already announced a primary challenge after Wise's admitted affair with a government employee. Election margin 50-48 over incumbent Cecil Underwood Opponent State senator Sarah Minear and former state revenue secretary Rob Capehart are the two most frequently mentioned candidates.

Prognosis In May, Wise admitted to having an extramarital affair while in office. Stories of the whole sordid business keep trickling out in the newsmedia, and could very well hurt Wise's reelection bid.

West Virginia is slowly becoming a two-party state after years of Democrat domination. Wise will face a tough re-election battle and may not even make it to the general election -- if he runs at all. An open race would favor a Democrat but would be competitive.

Incumbent Bob Holden, Democrat Election margin 50-49 over US Rep Jim Talent Primary oppostion Possibly state auditor Claire McCaskill, who has $273 thousand in election funds and is considering a challenge to the inept governor. McCaskill is a lawyer who is getting lots of support from that quarter.

Opponent Wunderkind Secretary of State Matt Blunt, 32-year-old son of current US Rep and deputy whip Roy Blunt, is running, and may soon pass Holden in fundraising. Holden had $1.53 million at the end of the first quarter 2003, while Blunt had $713 thousand. Blunt's fundraising has really taken off since his primary competition for the Republican nomination, US Rep. Kenny Hulshof, announced he wouldn't be running.

Prognosis Holden is vulnerable in the swing state; his reelection is the top concern of Missouri Democrats, ahead of the attempt to unseat GOP Senator Kit Bond. Blunt has an excellent chance at defeating Holden, and some speculate he (Blunt) will start out as the favorite. Blunt's youth may work against him, though.

Incumbent Gary Locke, Democrat Seeking re-election Unknown. Election margin 59-40 over radio host John Carlson

Primary oppostion Gary Locke is in his second term, is not too popular, and may be pressured into not seeking reelection to a third term. The leading candidates to replace him are Attorney General Christine Gregoire (unlikely to challenge Locke in a primary) and King County Executive Ron Sims, who is playing a game of chicken with Locke, trying to pressure him to quit by threatening a primary challenge. Sims doesn't have the balls to win that kind of game, but he may get in the primary anyway. Should Locke not run, US Rep. Jay Inslee has been clear that he's in the race.

Former state senator and supreme court justice Phil Talmadge has already announced a primary challenge, but he has yet to garner much support. My guess is a lot of people are holding their cards until Locke decides whether he'll run. From Locke's point of view, that's a good reason to postpone making a decision until late this year at the earliest if he does plan to run.

Opponent State GOP chairman Chris Vance predicts the party will advance only one candidate for governor and senate in the primary. The gubernatorial candidate I thought would be King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, a non-political straight-shooter, but he announced in June that he will not run. That leaves executive John Stanton and state senator Dino Rossi. County health director Federico Cruz-Uribe is also interested in a challenge; a Cruz-Uribe candidacy would be a welcome breath of non-establishment fresh air.

Prognosis Locke is seen as a poor leader, but personally popular as a family man and the first Chinese-American governor. A challenge must focus on the issues and leadership, where he is vulnerable. Locke may opt to retire, but if he doesn't he will have a hell of a time of it.

Incumbent Ruth Ann Minner, Democrat Seeking re-election Yes Election margin 60-40 over Burris Primary oppostion: None. Opponent William Swain Lee, aka Bill Lee, former state supreme court justice, is the front-runner and favored candidate of the influential DuPont family. Lee is running as a political outsider.

Prognosis Uphill battle against Minner but Lee is a good candidate. Delaware is still fairly Republican, though it has voted D in presidential elections. Leans Democrat.

Incumbent Frank O'Bannon, Democrat Seeking re-election No Democrat Candidate Joe Andrew, the former DNC Chairman under Bill Clinton, is the strong favorite to take the nomination.

Republican Candidate Federal Office of Management and Budget head Mitch Daniels has announced he is leaving to go back to Indiana. He should be announcing a run for governor any day now. Daniels is a former executive at Indiana-based drug company Eli Lilly and is almost uniformly supported by the Indiana Republican establishment and business community. He is currently not well-known in the state and trails 2000 GOP candidate and ex US Rep David McIntosh in the polls, but based on the support he already has from grassroots Republicans who are familiar with him, Daniels will romp to victory in the primary.

Prognosis Mitch Daniels is favored in this Republican state and brings a strong conservative hand to the tiller.

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Incumbent Craig Benson, Republican Seeking re-election Yes Election margin 58-38 over state senator Mark Fernald Primary oppostion: None. Opponent State senator Lou D'Alessandro is reportedly planning on running.

Prognosis Benson is the strong favorite to win a 2nd term only two years after election (Vermont & NH elect governors to 2-year terms).

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Incumbent Jim Douglas, Republican Seeking re-election Yes Election margin 44.9-42.4-9.7 over Lt. Gov Doug Racine and independent candidate Con Hogan Primary oppostion: None. Opponent Unknown. US Rep Bernie Sanders (Independent/socialist) rumored to be interested. Several others are considering running.

Prognosis Douglas is the favorite to win a 2nd term only two years after election (Vermont & NH elect governors to 2-year terms). He'll face a strong challenge, though, as prominent politicians are lining up to oppose him in this Democrat-leaning state.

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Incumbent Jim Leavitt, Republican Seeking re-election Possibly Election margin 56-43 over Orton Primary oppostion: None. Opponent Scott Matheson, dean of the University of Utah law school, brother of US Rep. Jim Matheson and son of former governor Scott M. Matheson, is one of two candidates considering running. The other is state senator Ron Allen.

Prognosis If Leavitt runs he's a shoe-in. (He says he'll announce his plans this fall.) In any case, the Republican nominee will have a strong advantage. A complete run-down of the possible Republican candidates is available here at the Salt Lake Tribune.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- North Dakota Incumbent: John Hoeven, Republican Seeking re-election: Probably. Election margin: 55-45 over Heitkamp Primary oppostion: Possible; Hoeven is less conservative than some other NoDak Republicans. Opponent: Unknown. More info coming soon.

Montana Incumbent: Judy Martz, Republican Seeking re-election: Doubtful. Election margin: 51-48 over O'Keefe

Prognosis: Martz is not what you call "popular" -- she will probably not run again, as she trails badly in the polls. Sec state Bob Brown would be a strong candidate for the GOP, and would have a slight edge over Schweitzer.

So, yah, I'm from Washington State. Thought I'd throw some info out.

Patty Murray should NOT be reelected, but she most likely will be. She is a embarrasment, not only to the state, but especially the State Republican party. She is, quite frankly, and this is not a partisan thing, dumb as a brick, and it is a HUGE stain on the State Republican party that they didn't bring her down in 98. Her challenger was Linda Smith, who was a really good candidate, but she had a problem: She wouldn't take PAC money, and ended up being painted really bad by Murrey. It's not always about money, but that was a big part of it.

If Rep. Jennifer Dunn would run, we might have a really good chance of taking out Murrey, and the White House wanted her to, but apparently, she's turned them down. I would do just about anything to change her mind, I wish I could think of something, but she doesn't seem to be caving. I can't say I blame her, she's powerful and secure where she is, but it's a shame for Washington.

Since she turned down the WH invite to run against her (they promised her a LOT of support too), the WH has been pressuring George Neithercutt, a Rep. from the Spokane area. He's a pretty good guy, I actually like him a lot, and he's probably going to run. However, he's not nearly as strong of a cadidate. For one thing, he's from eastern Washington, which isn't good. The truth of the matter is that Washington is basically two states, West of the mountains (I.E. Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia etc) and East of the mountains, which is much more rural. The Republican cadidate is already going to win big on the east side of the mountains, so he has no geographic advantage. Also, although he has won reelection twice in his district since, originally, he said he was only going to serve 3 terms. I think this might be used against him more effectively statewide. Finally, he's not a woman, and in the Soviet of Western Washington, that could hurt him. That said, he is quite possibly the strongest choice left available, so I wish him luck.

As far as Locke goes, it's 50/50 if he's going to run again. He has won both times against super weak candidates, but since then, the state has moved even further to the left. It would take a good candidate, I think Rikert would have murdered him (I was SO disappointed he decided not to run), but he is beatable. If he doesn't run, I'm praying Jay Inslee (Who, I regret to say, is my representative) runs for two reasons:

A. Inslee can raise funds, and that's all. He beat a badly wounded Republican Candidate, who was also hampered by a ultra conservative third party in the race (Heratige Party if I'm not mistaken) to get the seat in 98 (beating Rick White, who not only reversed his stance on Gun Control and Abortion, but who, as I recall, devorced his wife for a yonger woman), and has faced two virtually unelectable candidates with no money and has still had to spend a buch to win. Papers were endorsing Joe Marine (his last challenger) left and right, and frankly, Joe was a complete joke as a candidate. He was APPOINTED to being a State Rep for one year, got defeated with LESS THEN 40% of the vote, decided to run for Rep for some reason, had no money, and still got 45% of the vote. Inslee isn't terribly likeable and votes against the interests of his state all day long. He's all over the map.

B. I BADLY want to have some credible candidate take over his seat. I think State Senator Dave Schmidt has a good chance. He's likable and I think now likely to run as a State Senator, who's secure (he was a state rep till 2002). He's got high name ID, as he's been a rep for years, ran for Snohomish County Exec if I'm not mistaken (It coulda just been county council, I forget), and is generally well liked.

Anyhow, I think we would have the best chacne against either him. Ron Sims scares me. Repubs call him Ron 'Tax To The Max' Sims, who 'never met a tax hike he didn't like'. I don't think he's that strong of a candidate, but it would scare the crap out of me if he won. Even Inslee isn't that bad.

So anyhow, seeming as how Washington missed the GWB sweep of 2002 somehow, (we didn't gain a single Rep seat, lost some in the state house (although, admittedly, we did take control of the state senate by 1 vote, which means we won 1 extra senate seat), it would be great to predict great things now that GWB is planning on campaigning heavily in Washington, but unfortunatly, I'm not too hopeful. I think Neithercutt will run, and he might have a shot, but I'd still put his odds 35/65 against him. The Governor is iffy, but I'd say the odds are still 60/40 against us. Time will tell. Either way, I'll be campaigning my ass off for Neithercutt and whoever gets the Gov nom. Hope all other Washintonians do the same.

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