Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[Howlin]

Here is his web site:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

I looked for the map on there, but couldn't find it; I could have sworn Fred said it was on that site, is that what you heard?

I'm a big Sabato fan!

[oceanview]

sad in a way, but in reality, that's the best a Republican can do given the demographics of the country. Any Dem (and I do mean "any") gets 43% of the popular vote for showing up and a whole slew of states (NY, CA, MASS, NJ, we all know the list). We are that close to socialism in the US.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Amazingly, Sabato also projects Electoral College totals for Bush vs. 5 SPECIFIC Democrat candidates: Edwards, Lieberman, Kerry, Graham and Gephardt.

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry, the French-looking candidate. I don't buy it.

[Elkiejg]

I heard him also. Not sure I agree with everthing he said - example, Graham could probably carry FL. I don't think so - unless they try the voter fraud again. Jeb Bush is doing a good job here and is fairly well liked - and he trounced McAwful's "shoe-in" McBride for Gov.

I would think the Hispanic community would be behind GWBush - he's done a heck of lot more for them than the RATS - can you say Estrada!! Of course I've never been a Graham fan - before he started running, he came off as a slow witted doofus. Now he sounds just like every other shrill, deceitful RAT.

[Diddle E. Squat]

[oceanview]

Graham will be Kerry's running mate, they must have Florida to have a chance of winning, so they are betting that Graham will help them take it. Graham has no chance of being the nominee, he is just in the race for the VP slot.

[deport]

The following are links to individual match ups....

The Old College Try

Below is a link for each of the Democratic candidates to an Electoral College projection should that candidate challenge President George W. Bush in the 2004 election.

U.S. Senator John Edwards
U.S. Representative Dick Gephardt
U.S. Senator Bob Graham
U.S. Senator John Kerry
U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman

[demlosers]

Bush has a good chance to take NY in 04.

[Paleo Conservative]

Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

If Bush only wins the same states he won in 2000, he would have 278 Electoral votes in 2004. I think he is going to not only win the states he won in 2000, but carry the several close states that went for Gore. This is my conservative projection.

It could be much better, and President Bush might win more than 40 states. He's currently very popular in New York and could possibly win there. If the DemocRATS keep collapsing in California, Bush might win it and also Barbara Boxer could be defeated in her race for a third term.

The DemocRATS might nominate Dean, and the Republican ticket might win 45 or more states.

The DemocRATS totally lose their minds, nominate Al Sharpton, and lose all 50 states, but win the District of Columbia. This would cause the Electoral College to vote 335-3 in favor of Bush.

[marajade]

Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right...

[Diddle E. Squat]

Yeah, even with the full fledge cultural/social/judicial issues nuclear summer I expect the Dems to pull next year, I don't see them winning with any of the 9. I think a Wesley Clark or an outside curve ball(Jeff Bezos type) as their best hope.

[William McKinley]

Minnesota will go Republican in the next election. Take it to the bank.

[Howlin]

Well, now you see why I'm the worst searcher on the internet!

[oceanview]

huh? i live here, there is an exodus of middle class private sector people from NY. those who are left behind are strongly Dem. He has no chance of winning NY. Pennsylvania is a much better bet.

[Torie]

I am not actually a fan of Sabato. Not to brag, but he was about a month or more behind me in handicapping House races last time. His little map is eventually found, and just has Bush winning the same states he did last time. That's original and exciting. The only oddity, is that the GOP trending state of Minnesota is in the probable Dem column, rather than leaning Dem, which is nutso (actually it should be labeled leaning GOP). It is all spam.

[deport]

His individual maps show the democrat candidate winning except for Kerry...... very interesting at this stage...

[oceanview]

Yes, also possible. And PA too, we have a good shot there, even with 110% turnout in Philly.

[marajade]

Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

[mombonn]

278-260 works for me, 330 sounds better. Just so long a we don't have to wait 36 days for the results!

I saw the segment, it was torture for Larry to gulp and discuss a second Bush victory.