[Recovering_Democrat]

Amazingly, Sabato also projects Electoral College totals for Bush vs. 5 SPECIFIC Democrat candidates: Edwards, Lieberman, Kerry, Graham and Gephardt.

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry, the French-looking candidate. I don't buy it.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Yeah, even with the full fledge cultural/social/judicial issues nuclear summer I expect the Dems to pull next year, I don't see them winning with any of the 9. I think a Wesley Clark or an outside curve ball(Jeff Bezos type) as their best hope.

[Wolfstar]

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry...

Doesn't make any sense. Are you sure you got the info right? If so, Sabato doesn't know his own tush from a hole in the ground.

At this early stage, the three Dem candidates with the best shot at the nomination are Dean (angry grassroots Left), Kerry (war record & money) and Gephardt (unions). Edwards and Graham have not gotten any traction at all in the early going, and Lieberman seems to be lagging in the fund-raising area. If their chances are slim against their own fellow Dems, what chance do they have against the President?

[Dave S]

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry, the French-looking candidate. I don't buy it.

You missed the underlying assumption stated on the map, i.e., "assumes a highly competitive election." If the popular vote was tight, then given the proclivities of the various states, he's predicting the individual states.

Sabato said if the election was held today, Bush would win 45 states and over 300 electoral votes. The assumption for the map is that the economy remains in the dumps or gets worse and that Iraq becomes a quagmire. I dont think either of those is likely to occur.

Also if Dean gets the nomination it will make McGovern contest look like that race was competitive.

[CyberAnt]

Well ... let them play their little games - what they're trying to do is convince the dems they can beat Bush - they can't.