[Howlin]

Here is his web site:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

I looked for the map on there, but couldn't find it; I could have sworn Fred said it was on that site, is that what you heard?

I'm a big Sabato fan!

[oceanview]

sad in a way, but in reality, that's the best a Republican can do given the demographics of the country. Any Dem (and I do mean "any") gets 43% of the popular vote for showing up and a whole slew of states (NY, CA, MASS, NJ, we all know the list). We are that close to socialism in the US.

[Paleo Conservative]

Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

If Bush only wins the same states he won in 2000, he would have 278 Electoral votes in 2004. I think he is going to not only win the states he won in 2000, but carry the several close states that went for Gore. This is my conservative projection.

It could be much better, and President Bush might win more than 40 states. He's currently very popular in New York and could possibly win there. If the DemocRATS keep collapsing in California, Bush might win it and also Barbara Boxer could be defeated in her race for a third term.

The DemocRATS might nominate Dean, and the Republican ticket might win 45 or more states.

The DemocRATS totally lose their minds, nominate Al Sharpton, and lose all 50 states, but win the District of Columbia. This would cause the Electoral College to vote 335-3 in favor of Bush.

[mombonn]

278-260 works for me, 330 sounds better. Just so long a we don't have to wait 36 days for the results!

I saw the segment, it was torture for Larry to gulp and discuss a second Bush victory.

[BibChr]

If it's that close, even, the country is TOTALLY insane, and incapable of learning anything, and the last person out won't even have to turn the lights out.

Dan

[Brilliant]

It depends entirely on who his opponent is. He also stated that if it's Dean, the Dems will lose at least 45 states.

[colorado tanker]

This crystal ball is cracked. One example. He has Missouri going for favorite son Lil' Dickie Gephardt, but Lil' Dickie has never won a statewide race in Missouri and most of the state does not like St. Louis liberals. And I betcha that Edwards, like Gore, could not take his home state against Bush.

[TomGuy]

If things stay as they are right now, it is going to be a closer election than most think--depending on which Dem candidate emerges.

The economy has been "recovering" since the spring of 2000, but layoffs continue, the stock market has been bouncing up and down, and things aren't all rosy in the pocketbooks. Like it or not, people vote based on their pocketbooks.

Events could change drastically either for or against GWB on either economic or terrorism front. More economic instability and GWB may be out. Another significant terrorist attack could help or hurt GWB, depending on where, how, etc. If it is over the open borders, GWB is out, because the opposition will say he didn't secure the borders. If it were something perceived as unstoppable surprise, GWB could be helped in the polls, depending on his response.

The "well knowns" on the Dem side don't stand much of a chance. Dean is the most "outsider" of the lot. Don't discount him. The last 2 Dem Presidents have been governors; the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

Don't count Hillary out. She is lurking, learing, waiting for a perceivable change. She cannot afford to let another Dem possibly win the Presidence--that would put her out until 2012 and she can't wait that long. She will connive behind the scenes, and if there is any perceived weakness in GWB's reelection, Hillary will maneuver herself to be the one sworn in as President. Don't ever underestimate her.

[Dan from Michigan]

Generic Map

I move Michigan and Minnesota from probable dem to tossup(dem). I consider both of them true tossups, but that wasn't what Sabato used.
Other than that I agree on that one.

Lieberman is the toughest for me to predict. He has a conservative reputation, and liberals hate him like some of us hate John McStain. I think he'll be offed in the primary. He has Lieberman winning with 287. I don't know what would happen with him. I expect a strong green candidate with Lieberman taking some of the vote.

Graham 287 as well. I think he'll be tough if he gets off the ground.

Gephart is abrasive which helps. Geography he hurts. He puts Missouri in play, and locks up West VA and Michigan. But will Gephart play well in white collar suburbia? Soccer moms? I don't think he can. He'll be tough though.

I don't think Edwards can pull it off. He's scary, but beatable. He IS a trial lawyer, which puts Michigan in play(Ask Fieger). I can't see him taking NC as well like Sabato has. Why? He's not been there long enough. He'll lose, but a close one.

Kerry I think simply doesn't have it. I agree with Sabato on that Kerry loses to W, but it wouldn't be AS close as this. I can't see Kerry selling in middle America.

[Kuksool]

I don't put too much faith in Larry Sabato's predictions. Last year, he thought the RATS would maintain control of the Senate and make a killing in the Governor races. He was way off in his predictions.

[AmericaUnited]

Sabato is a flaming idiot if he thinks Bush will only equal his 2000 results!

[Cicero]

It's far too early to make any such projections. Bush will sweep the elections UNLESS there's an economic meltdown--which is certainly possible. Even then he might succeed in winning, because so far people don't blame him for our economic difficulties, despite the media's best efforts.

[ALS]

[The Wizard]

no offense larry, I like you but the truth is in you 330 number, it will be that or higher

[InvisibleChurch]

it will never be that close... w will have half a billion dollars to spend and he's going to crush the democrats

[Teacher317]

He's got the Senate GOP picking up 2 or 3 seats, and the House about even.

[HamiltonJay]

Doubt it will be that close personally.

If the economy stays depresessed it might wind up that close, but if it continues to move up, which it does appear to be doing, it won't be that close.

However, as long as Bush wins, really doesn't matter how close it is anyway.

[Joy Angela]

Great photos and Freeper report about Bush Visit to
California on Friday!!!!

See link and read posts 72 and beyond for the Great News!!

Wish I'd been there!

Freepers Bush to visit L.A. FRIDAY (6/27):
Join Ted Hayes & FR for pro-USA rally:
"Thank GOD it?s W!" - 5 pm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/933686/posts?page=79

[The Old Hoosier]

HOw stupid. That's just the 2000 map.

Bush will win Minnesota this time.