Posted on 06/23/2003 10:44:26 PM PDT by LdSentinal
Today Charlotte banker Jim Hance co-hosts an uptown fund-raiser for Republican Richard Burr's U.S. Senate campaign. On Saturday, Outer Banks restaurateur R.V. Owens hosts another in Nags Head.
For Burr, the two men are prize catches.
For Democrats, they could be costly defections.
Both raised money for last year's Democratic Senate nominee, Erskine Bowles. And both represent what some Democrats say is the risk in U.S. Sen. John Edwards' decision to keep his re-election options open even as he mounts an aggressive campaign for president.
Edwards is walking a high-stakes tightrope between a presidential run still trying to get traction and a possible Senate re-election bid that gets tougher with each day that he doesn't commit to it.
While Burr raises millions for the Senate race, no Democrat can gear up until Edwards decides what he'll do. He deflects questions about when he'll decide, though many Democrats expect him to wait at least until Labor Day.
"Clearly there's an opportunity, and for anybody not to take advantage of that would be a tactical mistake" said Burr, who expects to have raised $3.3 million for his Senate bid by the end of this month.
The Democrats' Senate vacuum is one more pressure on Edwards, who faces a summer of challenges across the country as well as back home.
After leading the eight other Democratic presidential hopefuls in first-quarter fund-raising, he has to show it was no fluke. New finance reports are due next month.
After six months of active campaigning, polls show he has made little headway in key, early-contest states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
As he campaigns before liberal audiences across the country, he risks taking positions that could hurt him if he runs for re-election in North Carolina. A series of polls conducted for The News & Observer of Raleigh in recent months shows Edwards beating Burr and other potential Republican challengers, but with less than half the vote.
Interviewed on CNN last week, Edwards was asked why his presidential campaign hasn't "caught fire."
"I am completely confident in our long-term plan," he replied. "The numbers will start to move. They'll start to move when we pivot out of doing all the effort that we've put into ... fund raising ... and spend a lot of time ... in Iowa, in New Hampshire (and) South Carolina ... I'm completely confident about this."
Campaign chairman Ed Turlington says fund-raising is going "just fine" as the campaign builds its state organizations and endorsements.
"In presidential politics you're successful when you have staying power," he says. "If you're just a flash in the pan you'll be out of the race quickly. He's building the blocks of staying power."
Polls show him 5th
Sunday Elizabeth Edwards opened her husband's new headquarters in Manchester, N.H. Her visit came three days after a poll by the American Research Group showed Edwards trailing four presidential rivals, with support from 4 percent of New Hampshire Democrats. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts had 28 percent, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had 18, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut got 11 and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri had 10.But the primary is more than seven months away, and early polls are notoriously fickle.
"(Edwards) is beginning to pick up," says James Pindell, managing editor of PoliticsNH.com. "He's beginning to spend some money up here, which is significant ... He has a very good staff, which is a good start."
Edwards spent Friday and Saturday campaigning in Iowa, which holds presidential caucuses in January. This month a Research 2000 Iowa Poll of likely caucus-goers showed him running fifth among Democrats with 4 percent. Gephardt led the pack with 27 percent. Dean already has begun running TV ads there.
"(Edwards) literally has to spend some time ... one-on-one, person-to-person," Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a Democrat, told The Observer last month. "The reality is, he's going to have to spend more time."
Steffen Schmidt, a political scientist at Iowa State University, says Edwards "is not the natural candidate for this particular bunch of Democrats; he hasn't pandered to the Iowa Democrats' ... liberalism or pacifism."
But Edwards has appealed to organized labor in Iowa, praised Sen. Edward Kennedy in Boston and embraced gay voters in Atlanta, not things that would necessarily help him in a general election campaign back home.
He has run a populist campaign, criticizing President Bush for helping special interests and the wealthy, while taking centrist positions such as calling for a middle-class tax cut.
"He's doing what he's always done," says Turlington. "He's talking about what he thinks is best for North Carolina and America ... laying out his vision."
Bowles, Blue poised to run
Burr, a member of Congress from Winston-Salem, appears to have clear sailing for the GOP Senate nomination. The White House supports him. So do former Sen. Jesse Helms and most of the state party establishment. Through March he'd raised $2 million, more than any GOP challenger in the country.
His opponent?
"I have to assume today that it's John Edwards," Burr says.
Edwards can legally run for Senate and president at the same time, though few expect him to do so.
If he doesn't, at least two other Democrats are poised to run. One is Bowles, a former Charlotte investment banker. The other is former state Rep. Dan Blue of Raleigh, who lost to Bowles in last year's primary. Bowles could not be reached. Blue says Edwards has the summer to decide if he's in or out.
"At some point, if he's running for re-election, the focus has to return to North Carolina," Blue says, "and his activity has to be geared to North Carolina issues and North Carolina concerns."
Like Edwards, presidential rival Bob Graham of Florida is up for re-election to the Senate in 2004. But Graham has given other Democrats his blessing to organize their own Senate campaigns, even while acknowledging that he may be a candidate himself.
Asked this month whether he would do the same, Edwards told a reporter that "that idea never occurred to me and has not been suggested."
Turlington says Democrats shouldn't worry.
"Of all the Democrats in North Carolina, he understands what it takes to win a Senate seat," Turlington says. "And he will make a decision about the Senate race at a time that will maximize the ability of a Democrat to win, whether that's him or somebody else."
NONE OF THE ABOVE!
I've already made my (small) contribution. Good for him to have lots of small contributors, 'cause you know that when the Rats are outraised they whine about "big money" rich folks.
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