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It looks like SARS should go to zero by the end of the month.
1 posted on 06/15/2003 6:48:38 AM PDT by StACase
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To: StACase
Unless another batch is released from a Peking Bio-weapons laboratory.
2 posted on 06/15/2003 6:51:37 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets ("ALL THE NEWS THAT FITS, WE PRINT")
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To: StACase; All
-Strange new disease outbreaks--
3 posted on 06/15/2003 6:56:01 AM PDT by backhoe (Just an old keyboard cowboy, ridin' the trackball into the sunset...)
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To: StACase
SARS DIARY - A Study In Panic

6 posted on 06/15/2003 7:09:13 AM PDT by _Jim
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To: StACase
... and when summer ends, it will pop right back up again.
7 posted on 06/15/2003 7:09:43 AM PDT by KellyAdmirer
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To: StACase
Great! Just in time for West-Nile virus to flare back up!
11 posted on 06/15/2003 7:19:54 AM PDT by Orangedog (Soccer-Moms are the biggest threat to your freedoms and the republic !)
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To: StACase
It was pretty clear that when SARS was first ID'd in Hanoi, and successfully contained with zero new cases (in one of the world's poorest countries), that it was not going to be a long-lived phenomena.
13 posted on 06/15/2003 7:25:36 AM PDT by angkor
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To: StACase
First US Sars Death?. Dr. Henry Niman of Harvard thinks the man who died in NC will turn out to have been a superspreader of SARS.
15 posted on 06/15/2003 7:25:44 AM PDT by aristeides
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To: StACase
It looks like SARS should go to zero by the end of the month.

This is going to upset a few of the professional worriers around here.

The SARS scare reminds me of the Planet X silliness, we're always being told, "next month things are REALLY going to get bad."

22 posted on 06/15/2003 7:46:49 AM PDT by TomB
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To: StACase
In a few years SARS will be remembered as "the disease that never was" because of the hysterical response to an outbreak in a few locales that on further examination will likely be concluded to be simple but significant failures in prophylaxis.

Nothing else explains the fact that the overwhelming majority of area hospitals were unaffected.

However, every new strain of a known or suspected infectious pathogen deserves study and I am sure this one will be scrutinized quite carefully.

31 posted on 06/15/2003 9:26:31 AM PDT by Old Professer
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To: StACase
Except Canada is still having new cases
50 posted on 06/15/2003 12:57:57 PM PDT by RnMomof7
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To: StACase
So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

On the 30th of June will you post again, letting us know whether or not your prediction of no active cases is accurate?

56 posted on 06/15/2003 3:38:57 PM PDT by per loin
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To: StACase; per loin; Betty Jo; TaxRelief; pram; Lonesome in Massachussets; KellyAdmirer; Orangedog; ..
StACase, I'm sure your intentions are good, but the only thing you are doing is amplifying what the Chinese WANT us to hear.

The Chinese economy was being trashed by SARS and especially by the travel restrictions. They desperately wanted those lifted, and consulted with the WHO in May, and even got them to visit one province Hebei. The WHO showed them exactly which numbers would be 'tracked' to determine their containment. Instantly, China started reporting 'perfect containment' in virtually EVERY province other than Beijing.

Many provinces which HAD been seeing their case counts double every six days, abruptly flat-lined with NO NEW CASES from May 10th, or May 14th, until now.

Here is just one example, Inner Mongolia...

[abrupt change occurred May 10]
Inner Mongolia's TOTAL 'probable' case count
was doubling every 6 days, then abruptly flat-lined

A similar pattern was observable in Taiwan, where they obviously were reporting just their CRITICAL cases as 'probable' SARS. The death rate within this group was exceeding 90%. Meanwhile, they were also collecting hundreds, and then over 1000 'suspected' cases. [But the world pays no attention to 'suspected' cases and they knew that].

To this day, they still hold WAY back on the numbers they report as 'probable', and maintain a HUGE backlog of hospitalized 'suspected' cases. But something caused them to change gears about May 28th, and completely STOP reporting ANY DEATHS from this 'probable' group. Most likely it had to do with lobbying the WHO to remove their travel restrictions.

Anyway, the same familiar bogus curve appeared in Taiwan's death counts...

Their reported deaths HAD been doubling every six days, but then abruptly flat-lined.

A few days ago, a government watchdog group in Taiwan reported that the government has cremated 363 SARS patients, but Taiwan had only reported 81 having died. I extrapolated out conservativly if they really COULD have had 363 SARS deaths based on where the trend HAD been heading before it flatlined. I found that the numbers could easily have exceeded 363 dead, so the watchdog group sounds very believable.

Taiwan's SARS deaths were DOUBLING every SIX DAYS. I conservatively spotted them one extra days, and doubled their deaths every SEVEN days starting from where the curve turned 'truth-challenged'...

DATE__ - _REPORTED
May 01 -  3 deaths     3 deaths
May 06 - 10 deaths    10 deaths
May 12 - 20 deaths    20 deaths
May 18 - 40 deaths    40 deaths
. . .
May 10 - 81 deaths   356 deaths
May 11 - 81 deaths   393 deaths
May 12 - 81 deaths   434 deaths
May 13 - 81 deaths   480 deaths

We have even less ability to scrutinize mainland China's numbers, since it is illegal to phone, fax, or use the internet to communicate out in any way regarding SARS. Their numbers are even more likely to be fabricated than Taiwan's.

It is VERY unfortunate that the WHO LIFTED the travel restrictions to many Chinese regions including Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, Guangdong, and Tianjin.

I can only conclude the WHO decision makers displayed either Hillary-like gullibility, OR, Bubba-like greed for Chinese currency.

Time will tell what happens, and it will be interesting to watch, but your headline would be more accurate if it read...

SARS will LOOK like it has gone to ZERO by month's end.

Keep up the good work on presenting professional looking charts, but please be careful what you conclude, because China and Taiwan's number are VERY much bogus.

[ And to all the newcomer's here... Please try NOT to argue with our persistent SARS disruptor _Jim.
He destroys nearly every thread he ever visits with childish arguments and naysaying, and eventually off-topic and rude attacks]

63 posted on 06/16/2003 1:24:02 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Freedom_Loving_Engineer)
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To: StACase
Well, there goes at least a thousand budding scientific careers -- at a savings of billions for the US taxpayer....
84 posted on 06/16/2003 2:46:20 PM PDT by tracer (/b>)
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To: StACase
SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

Good research. I thought it would be early fall before SARS killed everyone on the planet.

102 posted on 06/16/2003 7:09:42 PM PDT by DPB101 (The first lawyer elected Speaker of the House of Representatives was arrested for treason)
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To: FL_engineer; aristeides; blam; per loin; TaxRelief
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/detail.asp?ID=38546&GRP=B

"Gov't to clairify true causes of SARS deaths"
103 posted on 06/16/2003 8:52:07 PM PDT by Betty Jo
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To: StACase
I'm telling ya... This summer's blockbuster news story will be Monkeypox, not SARS. It's this year's "shark bite". Now if we could only get poxed monkeys to bite tourists on the beach...
110 posted on 06/17/2003 12:03:04 AM PDT by Redcloak (All work and no FReep makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no FReep make s Jack a dul boy. Allwork an)
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To: StACase
Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

So then it's OK to order the Sweet-N-Sour Civet Cat again?

123 posted on 06/17/2003 6:37:01 AM PDT by PBRSTREETGANG
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To: StACase
I wonder how long WHO will continue to post data?
Here's an updated chart, active cases are well under 200:

World Health Orgainzation

206 posted on 07/13/2003 2:49:20 AM PDT by StACase
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