Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

World Health Organization ^ | June 15, 2003 | StACase

[StACase]

The important statistic with regard to diseases such as SARS is, in my opinion, the number of active cases. WHO and News organizations don't report this stat. However, WHO since April 10th has reported total number of cases, deaths and recoveries from which the number active cases can easily be derived. So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

[Betty Jo]

Why oh why are they going to do this?

Why drag this man to a county court house, where hundreds of people go?

Why not a closed circuit TV setup from the hospital?

This is goofy!

[dc-zoo]

This makes no sense. To bring a man who may be sick with sars to a courtroom in one of our largest cities. Lookout for a full blown epidemic if this kind of insanity continues. And why would this patient want to subject everyone around him including his own family to a potential deadly outbreak?

[Logical Extinction]

This might be what you are looking for:

Math

[Betty Jo]

I cant figure it out.

Where in Toronto was he?

Is he an American citizen,or an illegal Mexican?

Hoes does this mesh with Bushs presidential order to include SARS in the list of quarantinable diseases?

Wouldnt this case ,now tht I think about it, have to be in Federal Court?

What are Tommy Thompson and Tom Ridge going to do?

This will set some parameters that we may horrribly regret.

I think I'll go google the fed aspect.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Sars/0,6119,2-101488_1374362,00.html

"Nobel Prize For SARS Hero?"

Dr. Carlo Urbani

[Calpernia]

Legal input ping!

[aristeides]

Experts: SARS Likely Here to Stay.

[Betty Jo]

http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/global/hiv/03040401.htm

Read the actual Execituve Order

aristeides,does the hearing in Dallas on this man have to involve the feds?

Can Dallas,Texas and/or it's county do what it wants,not what the feds want?

[Betty Jo]

Re # 167

Endless quarantines?

Eights years in prison for the Taiwanese?

What will China dole out to it's guilty?

[Calpernia]

Frithguild may have some knowledge on that Betty Jo. Wait until he gets to the thread.

[TaxRelief]

Voice of America Update:

"Gro Harlem Bruntland, the head of World Health Organization says Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome will continue to challenge global health care if its source is not identified and eliminated. But scientists at a conference in Kuala Lumpur say the disease is not likely to be eradicated.

The World Health Organization's director general says Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is similar to AIDS in that it will continue to pose new challenges if its source is not eradicated.

"We are up for new challenges, even in the future, and therefore the capacity to identify and react and respond is so important," commented Gro Harlem Bruntland at the end of a two-day WHO conference in Kuala Lumpur.

The source of SARS is still unknown, but there is evidence the virus may have come from wild animals, including the civet, a mammal sold as a culinary delicacy in southern China.

Some researchers think civets could be the source of future SARS outbreaks. They say the virus likely jumped from its host animal to a human preparing the civet for eating.

Veterinary epidemiologists, who are scientists who trace infectious disease in animal populations, say SARS eradication is unlikely.

"The question of can SARS be eradicated, and we concluded that it was to early to say, but certainly all the indications so far is that … such eradication would be extremely difficult," Dr. Hume Field of the Animal Research Institute of Australia.

Other scientists at the SARS conference had different conclusions.

One doctor says the threat of SARS reemerging could be greatly reduced if transmission between people and animals could be permanently cut.

The executive director of the WHO, David Heymann, indicated the U.N. agency is still optimistic the new disease can be eliminated.

SARS, which causes a serious pneumonia, first emerged in China late last year. Since then it has infected almost 8,500 people, killing more than 800."

From Katherine Maria, Kuala Lumpur,18 Jun 2003, 14:04 UTC Voice of America:

[Betty Jo]

Kill them little critters!

[EternalHope]

Thanks for the link and info. TaxRelief has an interest in the mathematics of epidemics, as do I. Obviously, you do as well.

My earlier comment regarded establishing a new time zero for mathematical models showing the total number of infections. Since the "official" number of active cases may drop to zero sometime this summer, this step would be appropriate.

Although my previous post was clearly and perfectly incomprehensible, I'll try to make up for it with long-winded obscurity.

Since the transmissibility of SARS may vary seasonally, a mathematical model appropriate for the summer may not be the right model for the winter. Generally speaking, the underlying causes for seasonality are not fully known, but "p", at least, may be less during the summer.

Likewise, the effectiveness of human intervention (isolation, quarantine, travel restrictions, etc.) will vary depending on the resources and determination of the people involved. This will also affect the rate of growth in cases (a lower "n").

A huge and little understood variable involves the number of "seeded" cases we may have in the general population (as pointed out by Dr. Niman). If these cases become active this fall at the start of the cold/flu season, then "N" will start at a much higher number than we had this spring.

And lastly, of course, any model we build based on publicly available information will be dependent on the accuracy of the data. A government that lies as a matter of national policy, such as China, is useless as a source of information (garbage in, garbage out).

[Betty Jo]

I love your sense of humor.

Your post made perfect sense to me.

Have you thought at all about how many people will have to die in order to not have any cases by the end of this month?

I'm hoping that someone who is not as lazy as I am will post the figure.

[EternalHope]

Thanks. I obviously have too much time on my hands today.

As far as when the case count will go to zero, are you asking about the official numbers, or the actual numbers?

I 'spect it'll be purty easy for the official numbers to go down, 'specially in China and Taiwan. Prob'ly in Canada, too.

If SARS is as seasonal as its coronavirus cousins, then I would expect to see the actual number of cases go down during the summer as well.

[Domestic Church]

So Influenza A could be a convenient cover for SARS. Of course it could also just be the flu which is nasty alone and I'm sure deadly in someone just surviving SARS.

[Truth29]

Re #167 - I wonder how much covering up is going on in Toronto?

[Betty Jo]

Well, I'm just asking that because the name of this thread is...."go to zero....."

The point I am trying to make/and/or get answered is there are (?) so many victims in the hospital who are on ventilators who will not (?) get beter when taken off the ventilator(will die),how can anyone say the number of SARS is going to zero in a few weeks?

Also:

http://www.canada.com/national/features/sars

go to right,click on "Toronto man 67,latest SARS casualty"

In that article read about the female teacher," ill since May 31, she tested positive for SARS today."

[EternalHope]

Hope I didn't seem to be minimizing your question. I understand your question, and agree: There is no way the official number of cases will go to zero by the end of the month. Too many people are on ventilators right now for that to happen, even if no new cases are reported.

BTW: The U.S. has a lot of probable SARS cases on ventilators, too. We seem to be doing a good job keeping them alive, but that does not mean they are all getting better.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.canada.com/national/features/sars

click on right for"Outbreak may force extreme measures"

(virus watchdogs stationed in hospitals)

SARS COPS!!!!!!

and what if those SARS cops were hired by my favorite staff provider in Canada,Med-Emerge International,Inc which at one time had substantial ownership by Camille Chebeir,the front and investment manager for Mahfouz, the Bin Laden funder?