To: EternalHope
This might be what you are looking for:
Math
163 posted on
06/18/2003 7:56:05 AM PDT by
Logical Extinction
(Reality is often much more frightening than fiction...)
To: Logical Extinction; TaxRelief
Thanks for the link and info. TaxRelief has an interest in the mathematics of epidemics, as do I. Obviously, you do as well.
My earlier comment regarded establishing a new time zero for mathematical models showing the total number of infections. Since the "official" number of active cases may drop to zero sometime this summer, this step would be appropriate.
Although my previous post was clearly and perfectly incomprehensible, I'll try to make up for it with long-winded obscurity.
Since the transmissibility of SARS may vary seasonally, a mathematical model appropriate for the summer may not be the right model for the winter. Generally speaking, the underlying causes for seasonality are not fully known, but "p", at least, may be less during the summer.
Likewise, the effectiveness of human intervention (isolation, quarantine, travel restrictions, etc.) will vary depending on the resources and determination of the people involved. This will also affect the rate of growth in cases (a lower "n").
A huge and little understood variable involves the number of "seeded" cases we may have in the general population (as pointed out by Dr. Niman). If these cases become active this fall at the start of the cold/flu season, then "N" will start at a much higher number than we had this spring.
And lastly, of course, any model we build based on publicly available information will be dependent on the accuracy of the data. A government that lies as a matter of national policy, such as China, is useless as a source of information (garbage in, garbage out).
173 posted on
06/18/2003 9:22:40 AM PDT by
EternalHope
(My sense of humor today is obviously out of kilter. As is my use of time..)
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