Has S.D. 2004 Senate Campaign Already Begun?

Press & Dakotan ^ | 4/28/03 | CHET BROKAW

[LdSentinal]

PIERRE -- South Dakota apparently will get a shorter break than most people wanted between the 2002 and 2004 U.S. Senate campaigns.

"I think everybody has to take a deep breath because I think we were looking for a longer break than we're going to get," said Judy Olson, chair of the South Dakota Democratic Party.

"I think we're immersed in a campaign as I speak," Olson said.

Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D., is the only candidate who has publicly said he will run. He has said he will seek a fourth Senate term, and he already has a campaign office started in Sioux Falls.

Daschle's campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, has said he expects third parties to begin running ads on issues within the next month. Such ads could be run by groups opposed to Daschle on issues.

Depending on who becomes the Republican candidate, the 2004 race could be even more intense and expensive than last year's race between Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson and Republican Rep. John Thune.

Johnson spent $6.8 million to win by 524 votes over Thune, who spent $5.9 million. The Republican and Democratic state parties also each spent about $6 million last year, much of it focused on the Senate race or get-out-the-vote efforts. And outside groups also spent money on ads intended to influence the Senate race.

Daschle's campaign committee plans to raise $10 million for his re-election bid.

South Dakota Republican Party Chairman Randy Fredericks said he is worried that outside groups could wind up wielding too much power in the Senate race and other contests.

"I believe you could see a situation where the individual candidates have less control over their own destiny, so to speak, because of special interests coming in and running ads," Frederick said.

Frederick said a group might someday surreptitiously try to hurt a candidate by pretending to support that candidate but running offensive ads that alienate voters. "hat's almost cloak and dagger."

Frederick said he does not yet know who will become the Republican Party's challenger to Daschle.

But Olson said Democrats are already wondering who the GOP candidate will be. "We talk about that all the time. We're always speculating."

Thune is most frequently mentioned as the Republican challenger.

Former Gov. Bill Janklow, who is now South Dakota's lone member of the U.S. House, is also mentioned, but most political observers doubt Janklow will run against Daschle. Janklow and Daschle have become friends, and a head-to-head matchup would be awkward for both.

Olson said Democrats would prefer to see Janklow and Thune square off in a primary that divides the Republican Party so the eventual winner enters the general election in a weakened condition.

"I think that would be the Democrats' dream election," she said.

Olson believes Daschle is in good shape to win re-election.

But Frederick said more and more Republicans are expressing an interest in running because they believe Daschle is vulnerable.

[dwswager]

Seems to me that Daschle won a relatively close election last time out and SD voters are not enamored with him. The biggest difference between Dashle's last election and the Johnson-Thune election and the upcoming election is that Daschle is not Majority Leader. That always swings votes, especially in a small state. Even if you disagree with the candidate's position, having the Senate leadership as a member of your delegate carries big clout. It will be interesting to say the least! I prefer Thune over Janklow.

[SoDak]

For those of you overly interested in SD politics, check out this blogspot, HERE
It's a fine site with all the latest political developments in this race.

[SoDak]

The GOP ran a very poor candidate against Daschle in 1998 also. Daschle's stock has dropped considerably since then, and his responsibility to head up opposition to all things GOP is an advantage we have now, that we didn't against Johnson. Johnson has a much more moderate voting record and ran to the middle throughout last year's campaign.

[GOPrincess]

Excellent find on this blog. Reminds me of how informative the Powerline blog was during the Minnesota Senate race. Have bookmarked! Going to send a donation to Thune soon :).

[SoDak]

Also, this blog is ran by a college student, who probably doesn't have a whole lot for resources, so I assume he'd welcome small donations from regular visitors too. I gave a token amount last week.

[Digger]

Ever wonder why the excuses the day after the defeat of a pubbie is that they ran a weak candidate? Ever realize when the pubbie candidate is staunch conservative that the pubbie party finds a way to get that person out of the race? Then a moderate runs & gets their butts beat. Ever wonder why?? Because this "Two-Party Cartel" & its money people (elites) do not want a conservative Congress. NO conservativism will emerge as long as the RINOs are there & this group & future groups will do NOTHING to oust them, hence THE LIBERALS WIN EVERY TIME OUT. Wake up, gang.

[SoDak]

For the most part, I agree with you. Reagan never ran as anything but a hardcore conservative and won easily. Like the old saying goes, those running down the middle are eventually roadkill. When I speak of Schmidt as a weak candidate, I mean that he was not an effective speaker, looked much older than he was, and was given half-hearted support by the national GOP because of the perception that Daschle was then unbeatable.

[OldFriend]

In other words, the dems are already busy loading the voting machines with dem votes and making sure the machines in republican districts are inoperable.

[Cicero]

Johnson beat Thune a) by cheating, and b) by arguing that his victory was needed to keep the gravy flowing by keeping Daschle as Majority Leader in the Senate.

Obviously neither of these arguments are going to help Daschle much in the next election. South Dakotans must soon have realized that they bought a pig in a poke. Daschole still lost his leadership position, and they are stuck with no leverage with the party in power.

Plus the Indian reservation business must have left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths.

[MainstreamConservative]

A pity that Minority Leader Daschle (are those not the three sweetest words you've ever heard?) is not running for President, as it would have been fun to watch him lose to Bush. Regarding the senate race, I think we are looking at another tossup, down to the wire race. Daschle is not like McGovern, who was so liberal that he lost by TWENTY POINTS to Jim Abdnor, who Daschle in turn beat six years later. Thune will get all of the money and support he needs to win, and his razor thin "loss" to Tim Johnson will have provided him with valuable experience in winning an election against a well liked and well funded politician. With luck, we will be saying "former Senator Tom Daschle" in 2005.

[Uncle Fud]

The Democrats will steal the election, and the Republicans will get whiplash from looking the other way. So what else is new.

[jmaroneps37]

Here's why tinny tommy will lose:
A) the rats had to cheat ( 1500 bogus Indian votes) to beat Thune the last time.
B) tiny's numbers are way down.
C) the Ashcroft effect will work in Thune's favor.
D) tiny's problems with Catholic Church may be more important in South Dakota than meets the eye. S.D. is more Catholic than most other states.
E) At least enough Republicans who admitted voting for johnson to save tiny's leader job, have said they will NOT make that mistake again.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Just remember that Daschle would never have beaten Jim Abdnor had it not been for that jerk Janklow who sabotaged Abdnor in the '86 GOP primary. Without him, Abdnor would've beaten Daschle by a 5-10% margin.

[MainstreamConservative]

As I recall, it was an incredibly divisive primary. Janklow seems to always want to cause trouble. If he really wanted to be a senator he would have run against Daschle in 1992, when he was then an inconsequential freshman. The only reason he is in the right house now is so that he could block his old nemesis Larry Pressler from makeing a comeback. I hope that he dosen't screw things up and run against Thune in the primary. We needed a united party fully behind Thune if we have any hope of beating Daschle. But knowing Janklow, he may decide to destroy our hope of winning to help his "good friend."

[fieldmarshaldj]

Indeed, I have never understood why someone so desperate to hold office chose to not bother to run when he was needed. Why, for example, did he ignore the open Congressional seat back in '86 ? Instead of destroying Abdnor's chances for a 2nd term, he could've beaten Tim Johnson for Daschle's vacated House seat in a cakewalk, and we would've had an all-GOP delegation from that state. As it stands, we haven't had an all-Republican delegation from there since 1961 (!) A state as Republican as that not ACTING as such in 42 years is simply inexcusable, and it has repercussions far beyond the state boundaries.

[nospinzone]

I imagine Daschle couldn't have run very liberal to beat Abdnor. How did he do it?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Daschle scarcely ran much differently than now (but I doubt any of the Dakota 'Rats have ever run using the "L" word). Abdnor was considered personally popular but Janklow and pundits thought him vulnerable, but they were wrong (Abdnor beat him by 10%). The problem was the divide. Abdnor had been the Congressman in the Western part of the state, and his popularity never abated there (and where his margin of victory was in the primary). Janklow carried the East, where Daschle had been the Congressman of prior to the state going to 1 Rep. (and then he narrowly won when the 2 seats merged). Many of the Janklow voters went to Daschle, as Abdnor repeated his win of the West, but loss of the East. Another issue, of course, was farming (in a slump during that time in the '80s) and that narrowly benefitted Daschle. But, again, if Janklow had opted for the House seat instead and campaigned hard WITH Abdnor instead of against him, we would've captured all 3 seats, instead of dropping to just 1 (with Sen. Larry Pressler). All of this was on Janklow's head.

[HitmanLV]

I think everybody has to take a deep breath...

Is this on some recent democRAT talking points memo of late? I have heard so many talking leftist heads saying that, especially in the last 3 or 4 weeks or so. Weird.

[votelife]

Many people did not pay attention to the Senate in Feb. Esp with war stuff going on. Frist, Hatch and even Bush have already spent capital on Estrada and more will definitely be coming. I have been writing/calling. The Dems are practicing a scorched earth policy, and we need to call them on it.

Freepers, rather than waiting to see what happens with Estrada and Owen, we need to take the lead. That means presuring Senators, special interest groups, media organizations, etc. This thread is meant to be an ongoing effort to get this man confirmed. For too many years liberals have had their way on the courts. Now, President Bush is in a position to move the courts to the right. The election of '02 showed that the country is with the President. Without the Senate we wouldn't be able to even discuss these nominees in the whole Senate. I think it's time to let Daschle, Hillary, and Pelosi know this is Bush country. Are you with me! Let's FREEP these people.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/847037/posts