Bush Edges Clinton, Tops All Comers In New York, But Most Voters Say She Should Stay In The Senate

Quinnipiac ^ | 4/24/03

[areafiftyone]

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton challenged President George W. Bush in 2004, the not-so-native daughter would be on the short side of a 47 -- 44 percent split among New York voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Clinton has a 52 -- 36 percent approval rating and New York voters say 59 -- 37 percent that she should not run for President next year.

President Bush has a 58 -- 37 percent approval in New York, up from 50 -- 44 percent in a February 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

"That a president fresh off a wartime win would poll higher than most wannabes isn't surprising. What will surprise many is that President Bush does so well against Sen. Clinton," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In 2000, Bush was so far behind in New York, he didn't even bother to campaign here.

"Meanwhile, New Yorkers want Hillary to stay home. They'd rather have her call Chappaqua home than to try going back to Pennsylvania Avenue."

Bush is ahead of other leaders in the Democratic Presidential pack:

• 50 -- 38 percent over Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman;
• 50 -- 38 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry;
• 49 -- 38 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt.

As a result of the war in Iraq, 31 percent of New York State voters say they are more likely to vote for Bush for reelection, with 28 percent saying they are less likely and 38 percent saying their position hasn't changed.

New York's senior Senator, Charles Schumer, has a 59 -- 22 percent approval rating, including 54 -- 31 percent among Republicans.

From April 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 885 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Approve	59	54	66	57	58	60	64
Disapprove	22	31	16	23	26	18	25
DK/NA	19	15	17	20	16	21	11
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Approve	51	58	56	63	59
Disapprove	27	20	21	22	23
DK/NA	22	23	22	15	17
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Approve	52	31	72	46	50	54	53
Disapprove	36	61	18	42	41	32	35
DK/NA	12	8	11	12	9	14	12
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Approve	42	49	48	59	48
Disapprove	47	40	42	28	40
DK/NA	11	10	10	13	11
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.Bush is handling his job as President?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Approve	58	91	38	56	60	57	59
Disapprove	37	7	56	40	35	39	38
DK/NA	4	1	5	4	4	4	3
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Approve	68	65	66	46	66
Disapprove	27	32	31	50	29
DK/NA	5	3	3	5	5
9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Clinton	44	7	72	39	37	50	47
Bush	47	90	16	49	52	42	44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	2	-	3	3	3	2	2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	2	-	2	3	2	1	2
DK/NA	5	3	6	6	6	5	6
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Clinton	26	34	33	61	35
Bush	63	55	57	29	58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	4	2	2	2	1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	1	1	1	2	1
DK/NA	5	7	7	5	4
10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W.Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Lieberman	38	6	66	34	34	41	45
Bush	50	88	23	47	54	46	43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	2	-	2	5	4	1	2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	2	1	3	3	2	2	4
DK/NA	8	5	5	11	6	10	6
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Lieberman	21	28	26	54	33
Bush	68	56	59	35	57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	3	3	3	2	1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	-	2	1	3	3
DK/NA	8	12	11	6	6
11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Kerry	38	4	65	35	36	40	42
Bush	50	92	21	49	53	46	43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	1	-	1	2	2	1	2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	1	1	1	2	2	1	1
DK/NA	10	3	12	12	8	13	12
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Kerry	22	28	27	55	30
Bush	65	59	60	32	60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	2	1	2	1	1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	-	-	-	1	3
DK/NA	10	11	11	11	8
12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Gephardt	38	5	67	33	37	39	42
Bush	49	90	20	48	52	46	45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	2	1	1	3	2	2	2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	2	-	2	4	2	2	2
DK/NA	9	3	10	11	7	11	10
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Gephardt	23	27	26	53	34
Bush	64	58	60	32	57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	3	3	3	2	1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)	2	2	2	2	2
DK/NA	8	10	10	11	6
13. As a result of the war with Iraq, are you now more likely to support George W. Bush for a second term as President, less likely to support him for a second term, or hasn't the war changed your feeling on that?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
More likely	31	54	14	30	35	26	27
Less likely	28	7	40	32	25	30	33
Hasn't changed	38	37	39	37	34	40	40
DK/NA	4	2	7	1	5	3	1
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
More likely	27	35	33	21	42
Less likely	20	25	24	38	18
Hasn't changed	49	35	38	37	38
DK/NA	4	5	5	4	2
14. Would you like to see Hillary Rodham Clinton run for President in 2004 or not?
							Union
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	HsHolds
Yes	37	11	55	32	29	43	38
No	59	85	40	62	65	54	59
DK/NA	4	4	5	5	5	3	3
	UpState.............		UpState
	Urban	Othr	Total	NYC	Sub
Yes	23	29	27	51	30
No	74	67	69	44	66
DK/NA	3	4	4	5	5

[bigj00]

I Agree BUSH LANDSLIDE!!! But, it won't be Bush/Chaney it should be Bush/J.C. Watts. Setting up a Watts/Rice run in 2008. After Condywins in California.

[stands2reason]

7% of the people who claim to be Republicans are actually Democrats.

[stands2reason]

I think that due to 9/11, I believe we have gained a good 5% of Gore voters who've "seen the light" that will not vote for any Democrat in 2004. It will all depend on turnout and fraud, though I believe despite how the economy plays out, we have a net advantage now.

[lilylangtree]

The New Yorkers that favor Hitlery didn't learn a thing from 911. Sad!

[stands2reason]

crusty will be gonje

Oooooh. Sounds nast-ay.

[proud American in Canada]

"Okay! Should everything go well, and should Democrats nominate Howard Dean, it will be 50 states for the President!"

Howard Dean... aka "snowball's chance." ;)

[miss marmelstein]

It's simply power for power's sake - to contradict myself, NYers consider power sexy. Sucking up to the the Clintons also gets you a good seat at Elaine's. The people I'm talking about wouldn't know a federal program if they tripped over it.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

all very interesting but bush's re-election is in the bag hillary is afraid to run in 04 and the clinton machine would never allow a dem victory which would make a hillary 2008 run impossible.

[concerned about politics]

I'd like to have Rudy run against her come the next senate race. Take her out, and she'll have to carpetbag somewhere else, if anyone would take her.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Keep in mind that if New York goes for Bush, then so will Connecticut and New Jersey. I still have hope for Massachusetts and Rhode Island, being that Bush lost those states by the same margin and is now leading in one of them by 12 points."

---

Suburban New Jersey and Connecticut vote pretty much the same as the New York suburbs, and while Upstate NY is more Republican than any large area in NJ or CT, the urban vote in those states is a much smaller percentage than in New York, so if Bush keeps it close in NY he will almost certainly carry NJ and CT. I still think it's uphill for Bush in NY, but he can get the 47% his daddy got in 1988 by getting around 60% in Upstate and the NYC suburbs and around 30% in NYC.

As for RI and MA, which of them had a poll where Bush is up 12%, RI? I still don't think he can carry it in 2004, but the fact we're even talking about it means we're poised for an '80s-style landslide in 2004.

But let's not pop the champagne yet, there's 19 and a half months left before the election and the RATs are going to sling mud like never before. And if Dick Gephardt wins the RAT nomination, we won't be able to take the Midwest for granted.

[Prov3456]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is AWB?

[Augie]

Hitlery should stay in the Senate?

I don't think so.

That b!tch belongs in prison.

[foreshadowed at waco]

I also live in NYC...I agree with what you said about the freedom to express yourself openly in cities with no fear of criticism...I also like to live surrounded by people and yet exist in relative solitude when I choose...

I think that city people often vote for Democrats because large numbers of urban people/voters staff the schools, hospitals, prisons, motor vehicles bureaus, etc...Democrats and the unions tend to run urban centers.

[areafiftyone]

What is going on with J.C. We hardly hear about him. I always liked J.C.

[ladyinred]

Way to go New York!
What counts though, are the ratings in 2004!

[Cacique]

ping

[Mr. K]

who in the HELL are these people polling? NO ONE I KNOW in New York State wants this witch around- an no one belives she won the election here- because no one voted for her.

Seriously- I cannot find one single person who voted for her

[areafiftyone]

Ya think they could be polling people in Harlem? I wouldn't be surprised. After all that's Clinton territory!

[Marysecretary]

That was really unforgettable. He looked so normal with his briefcase and leather jacket until I saw the slip. So weird.

[Marysecretary]

I wish she had Jesus in her heart, then she could be dangerous for HIM. It's not impossible.