2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)

http://www.polipundit.com/ ^ | 4/17/03 2:00 | polipundit.com

[JNB]

The polls I have seen with Springer show him down by 50 points in the senate race. The dems do not want Springer running anywhere near their ticket.

[Orlando]

Sen.Schumer can be beaten IF the GOP play the race card.
The Estrada nomination.
The Anti-God card.
The Estrada nomination.
The Anti-Father, Family card..
Sen. Schumer,Promotes and protects the unjust Family courts system
that uses the corrupt Child Support System to destroy
many good fathers..er
The demoncrats can be beaten in NY,Florida, Ca, Ill,and other states. It's easy,just shine the light on these demons.

[JNB]

Lets see the ACU site. DeWine got a ACU rating of 90 last year, Voinovich got a 95.

[NYC Republican]

No one has the cajunes to shine that light on him. Lazio tried doing that wuth Hitlery, it backfired.

[JohnnyZ]

3. Blanche Lincoln (AR) - Popular governor Mike Huckabee can probably take out lightweight Lincoln. Sources say he's getting ready to run. Popular former congressman and current DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson has been making trips to Arkansas, stroking speculation that he might run for the Senate in 2004. Either of these GOPers would prove a major headache for Lincoln.

4. Harry Reid (NV) - Senate Democratic Whip Harry Reid always wins his seat by tiny margins. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons is gearing up to challenge him in 2004 and he'll probably face another tough re-election fight. Having Bush at the top of the ticket just might be enough to tip the scales against him.

These are the only two I really take issue with. Voters aren't too uncomfortable about Lincoln. The challenger would need to run a very good, positive campaign about himself rather than about her, because she's not offensive enough to drive voter sentiment. They will, however, vote FOR a conservative.

Reid's race should be higher on the list b/c polipundit has ignored the change in Nevada since 1998. 208621 people voted to reelect Reid by 0.1% in 1998. In 2002, 301100 people voted for a GOP congressman, including 149574 for likely challenger Jim Gibbons. Gibbons is favored to win from the outset, though of course a brilliant campaign, new wedge issue, or whatever can always upset apple carts for either party.

[right-sidedNYer]

I'd be shocked in Schumer gets knocked off. Shocked. Even by Giuliani, who I believe won't enter the race.

Completely agree with your assessment. Didn't King just say he wasn't going to run because raising the money he would need would be a 7-day a week job for the next 18 months? Isn't Lazio still in the hole from 2000? The only one who could raise the money necessary to run against Schumer would be Guiliani - and he's not going to go for it. Rudy is not a team player - the senate is not for him. I firmly believe he has his sights on Governor in 2006. Unfortunately - we are stuck with UpChuckie for a while.

[JohnnyZ]

Given the death of his [Hollings'] daughter the other day, I'd find it hard to imagine him running again.

He has, indeed, had a string of unfortunate deaths in his family, with two brothers and now a daughter.

Probably best for everyone if he retires.

[Orlando]

Mel Martinez can help with the latino community, he is truthed in the latino community. If Mr. Mel Martinez goes
on Spanish TV and Radio it will help get the majority of the
Latinos votes. Use 911 event, and point out that the Demoncrats tryed to STOP the homeland security, and tryed
to stop the war on terror. Get out the word that Schumer is
anti-latino...and anti-GOD, and stop and prevents the war on terror. NYC Republican times are different...911 !!!

[JohnnyZ]

NC is still a majority Dem state, which votes GOP in Prez races.

Actually it's a majority Republican-voting state, with redistricting working against us. 2000 was not a good year here. Going forward the major obstacles to Republican dominance are RINOist backstabbers, like the folks who just helped Democrats raise taxes, and overcoming Democrat incumbency, which will take years. It will be 2012 before Republicans can take a firm hold of state government.

[votelife]

In case people don't know why we need to take the senate,
it's the filibuster, stupid!

Freepers, rather than waiting to see what happens with Estrada and Owen, we need to take the lead. That means presuring Senators, special interest groups, media organizations, etc. This thread is meant to be an ongoing effort to get this man confirmed. For too many years liberals have had their way on the courts. Now, President Bush is in a position to move the courts to the right. The election of '02 showed that the country is with the President. I think it's time to let Daschle, Hillary, and Pelosi know this is Bush country. Are you with me! Let's FREEP these people.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/847037/posts

[Stay the course]

The Senate should be rightfully Republican. Bush won 30 states in 2000 and, if each of them elected two GOP senators, Republicans would enjoy a 60-40 advantage in the Senate. ... Out of 19 Democrats, 10 are from states that Bush won in 2000. Out of 15 Republicans, only 3 are from states that Gore won in 2000.

This ignores the fact that some states vote differently for President and Senator. The Dakotas are extreme examples, but in general, you can't extrapolate results from one office to another. They're assuming that the fact that 13 of the 34 Senators up for re-election are from the party that lost their states' Presidential election in 2000 is an anomaly that will be corrected. It may just be the way people normally vote in those states.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

What does it do to WA that Boeing is moving to Chicago?

[LS]

Check these demographics: GOP gov; 2 GOP senators; about a 2/3 majority of House from Ohio is GOP.

I'm not sure, but I think both the state house and state senate are GOP. Bush carried Ohio easily in 00.

Ohio is not a dem state.

[caltrop]

I agree. My guess is Guiliani won't enter the race but even if he does, Schumer beats him. There are plenty of Republicans and Conservatives in NY that don't think there's a dime's worth of difference between them. As a Republican, Guiliani might be able to damage the 2nd Amendment even more than Schumer.

[Amish]

If Kingston isn't going to take the plunge, I wonder why no one is mentioning Newt?

No longer a Georgia resident? Negatives too high state wide? Hard core Christians won't forgive him?

He's definitely the smartest man who could run in Georgia, and what an asset to the President/nation in the Senate brain trust.

Hey Hannity, how about asking him during your next daily War report interview?

[bigfootbob]

"What does it do to WA that Boeing is moving to Chicago?"

Huge Loss. It's cost 35,000 and counting Boeing Company jobs alone. When you consider the direct vendors and factor all those lost jobs, it must be close to 100,000 people.

We expect Boeing to shutter EVERY facility within 5 years. The Renton facility where they manufacture the 737 is being transitioned into an upscale lakeside community.

It's an insult also to Governor Gary Locke, (Rat),if it would have been a Republican Governor you would still be hearing the screams. Unbelievable.

[familyofman]

A very interesting analysis - I would put in in the "best case" scenario column. It would be very interesting to see a "worst case" scenario, although I have no idea where to find one, maybe from the DNC.

[JohnnyZ]

If Kingston isn't going to take the plunge, I wonder why no one is mentioning Newt?

A lot of people haven't announced their candidacies yet, partly because of the war. I still think Kingston will run. "Governor" Mitch Daniels says he'll announce whether he's running by Memorial Day. Rosario Marin and Mel Martinez are also waiting before making/announcing their decisions. Sometime in the next three weeks the floodgates will open as Bush starts driving home the economy/tax cut domestic message. Ballantine will announce for governor of NC at the beginning of May. Candidates want the focus on them and on domestic politics when they announce.

[Wphile]

I was disappointed that Jennifer Dunn decided against running. She had a real shot at Murray. Unfortunately, I don't think Nethercutt could do it. He'd get all of Eastern Washington but would have a really hard time on the West side.

There was a black woman who ran for State party chair - I can't remember her name - so she would be an interesting challenger to Murray. The biggest trouble with Nethercutt is he isn't big on raising money. He knows how to run in a tight race - witness the slaying of the Speaker of the House - but the money part is a problem.

We also have a gubernatorial race in 2004 and hopefully the GOP can come up with a decent candidate to win that. There has been talk about Nethercutt going after that but again, being from the East side makes it tough to win a state wide race.