2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)

http://www.polipundit.com/ ^ | 4/17/03 2:00 | polipundit.com

[NYC Republican]

As usual, some excellent political insight from the folks at www.PoliPundit.com

You may also want to check out www.realclearpolitics.com for polling info, analysis/commentary, and a great recap of the day's major stories and viewpoints.

Any thoughts on this analysis?

[My2Cents]

I'm feeling some stirring of hope we can bump off Boxer. She's never had an approval rating in California higher than 50%, which means she's even too liberal for THIS state.

[BerniesFriend]

Very interesting analysis..if I may add Louisiana in the mix with Breaux..if Breaux runs for re-election it's his..but if he should retire..which is a terrible secret around here, then the GOP has a chance to win an OPEN seat with Bush at the top of the ticket..a state he carried easily in 2000..note that I say OPEN seat..this state has not voted out an incumbent senator since 1930..and it took HUEY P. LONG to do that..incumbency is a cancer in this state (ala lying landrieu)..

[NYC Republican]

The key, IMO, is to get someone who's not too conservative, but supports most of our platform (i.e.- not totally pro-life)... It's certainly not the ideal situation, but, alas, California is like New York- a stong conservative just can't win state-wide. The last person to do that in NY was D'Amato, and he'd have no chance of winning now.

[TheBigB]

The only real Dem pickup possibility is IL, and if Edgar gets in even that isn't a sure thing. I say the GOP gets GA, and probably SC. Those are the two best chances. Specter will win the primary and the general in PA.

[bigfootbob]

"8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.",

I don't think Nethercutt would make it to the first turn before he'll be many lengths behind. He'll carry Washington East of the Cascades, but doesn't have a chance in the Puget Sound "Crescent".

Osama bin Murray has a load of cash and the state GOP is AWOL. I think I saw GOP Chairman Vance holding a sign on the I-5 freeway ramp the other day, I couldn't quite read the message, something about will work for votes or something.

2004 will be ugly for the GOP here in the Peoples Dominion of Washington.

[ConservativeMan55]

Very good analysis.

[The G Man]

2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seat

Given the death of his daughter the other day, I'd find it hard to imagine him running again.

[NYC Republican]

If I keep posting their stuff, you'll think I'm on their payroll... It's actually one of the first sites I check out each morning... After FR, of course.

My favorite BLOG site.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube?

I want to see Dashle say over and over again some of his most rabid anti-American statements in front of his constituents. Why is this not done more often?

Let's give 'em enough rope.

[WillVoteForFood]

While I would definitely not say Hollings would use his daughter's death to his advantage in a Senate race, you can be certain the Phlegmocrats see his daughter's death as a boon to landing a sympathy vote in S.C.

[norge]

More likely, she's too stupid. But this IS California!

[NYC Republican]

That's unfortuanate... Is it a California effect? Bringing Oregon and Wash into the (lib) fold? Just wondering how they've swung so far left over the past several years. Cali you can see, due to their demographics...

[princess leah]

I was thinking that D'Amato should try for another run...perhaps NY is just fed up enough with the twosome traitors that they'd remember a good senator and re-elect him!

[NYC Republican]

"What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube? "

I've ALWAYS wondered that as well. One great example would be all of the war naysayers, predicting gloom and doom. Even better would be Algore's comments about what a horrible world it would be under Bush.

[NYC Republican]

Any sympathy gained would dissipate in a few weeks. It'll never carry over into late 2004.

[afuturegovernor]

I think we lose IL and pick up NC, GA, and SC.

[Jim Noble]

Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cycles

Only among RATs.

In 1981, states that Gore won by >54% had 13 GOP Senators. Now they have two.

In 1981, states that Bush won by >54% had eleven RAT Senators. Now they have-eleven.

All the "ideology" in the Senate races (and the author is right, there has been a marked increase) has been on the other side. We are not even in the fight.

[NYC Republican]

It'll never happen. As long as a candidate is pro-life, the Dems will lasso it around their necks like a tire necklace. This issue is THAT potent in NY... and N.J. and California.