2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)

http://www.polipundit.com/ ^ | 4/17/03 2:00 | polipundit.com

[RightOnGOP]

We are close in our opinions, but I will still argue the NC IS a majority Dem state. My belief is based on results and officeholders. The only office that's been a lock for the GOP is Prez, since 1980. All other levels are pretty much controlled by Dems or have been for the distant and recent past.

NC has AN OPPORTUNITY to be a majority GOP state........I believe (and sense that your claim is based on this as well) that North Carolinians WILL vote GOP when given that chance.

Your guess of 2012 is pretty accurate. It's like a decade project to take over a state......

With all due respect, I make the case strongly that we are behind, BECAUSE I SO DESPERATELY WANT THE GOP TO GET AHEAD!!!!! Let's work hard in every election to get this job done!!

[RJayneJ]

If Jerry Springer runs in Ohio, Voinovich may lose.

I don't think so. If Springer got run out of town on a rail when he tried to become a news reader again (I won't use the word journalist) he sure won't be tolerated as a senator. We still don't know why Voinovich is holding out on the tax cut. Sometimes when a senator holds out on their own party's prez is to get something in return. Remember how many Dems had to be bought off by Clinton on his retroactive tax increase? Voinovich has done that before. It's called 'Let's make a deal.'

[bigfootbob]

"There was a black woman who ran for State party chair - I can't remember her name"

Rose Strong. My county chair interviewed her and told me she's an empty dress.

I hope we see some electable candidates announce this Summer. The state GOP is being tight lipped about candidate recruitment. My county chair is making plans for the '04 cycle like we didn't have a state party. That doesn't sound good does it.

[NYC Republican]

Do you think this was an overly rosey assessment? I think he was being pretty realistic. Overall, I think we can expand our majority by 3-4 seats, but a filibuster-proof majority is very unlikely, IMO>

[Wphile]

Rose Strong. My county chair interviewed her and told me she's an empty dress.

Interesting. I didn't get a chance to meet with her but she was a very dynamic speaker. Her "resume" didn't give me any feel for where she stood on any issues so she was a pretty blank slate when she ran for Chair.

I know they are recruiting pretty hard for a candidate to run for Governor but I think lots of people were hoping that Dunn would try the Senate seat.

What county are you from?

[bigfootbob]

Kitsap

[zebrahead]

Arkansas and Nevada are prime pick-ups in 2004, although they will hardly be pushovers. Blanche Lincoln isn't especially liked or disliked in Arkansas. Her winning vote total in 1998 was not very impressive (386,822) as compared to what Huckabee has done in both 1998 and 2002 (415,931 and 429,450 respectively). Bush got 472,120 votes in 2000 and one could probably assume that a decent amount of extra votes could go the way of whatever Republican nominee runs in 2004. A run by a well-financed Huckabee would probably be enough to knock off Lincoln. Nevada tells a similar story. Republican congressional candidates took over 300,000 votes in 2002 and Governor Kenny Guinn received almost 350,000 votes as well. Jim Gibbons alone received 149,000 votes. John Ensign recieved almost 350,000 votes when he won in 2000. Harry Reid received only 208,000 votes in 1998 and his highest-ever vote total was 253,150 in 1992. Given those numbers, it is really just a matter of getting the Republican votes to the polls on Election Day. Reid cannot win unless he gets a huge voter turnout in the Las Vegas area and that was the area with the lowest voter turnout in 2002. A well-funded run by Gibbons in 2004 will be very tough for Reid to beat.

[Kuksool]

{NC has AN OPPORTUNITY to be a majority GOP state}

Didn't the NC GOP have that opportunity from 1994-1998. The GOP controlled the NC House and had near parity in the NC Senate. However in 1998, the NC GOP fell apart. The RATS captured the NC House, made gains in the NC Senate, and Blinky charmed his way passed Lauch Faircloth. What happened?

[firewalk]

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[votelife]

this is what is at stake in 2004:

"We urge every Senator to treat Miguel Estrada fairly and to vote to confirm." - Hispanic Bar Assn.

"We don't want to be treated as double standards." -Robert de Posada, Latino Coalition

"This is a very serious issue for our community and no politician should take this lightly. We urge the Senate to act responsibly and urge an up or down vote. " - Robert de Posada, Latino Coalition

"It's of grave concern to those of us with family in the military and overseas that Rome is burning while the Senate is fiddling." - Kay Daly, spokesperson for the "Coalition for a Fair Judiciary."

"We rarely have seen, if ever, a record of accomplishment (like) Miguel Estrada." - Juan Carlos Iturregui, Hispanic National Bar Assn.

"We urge Senate to vote on this confirmation NOW. Not next month..." -Juan Carlos Iturregui, Hispanic National Bar Assn.

"We also are concerned that some members of the Senate are trying to impose a higher standard of review that is unprecidented." - Juan Carlos Iturregui, Hispanic National Bar Assn.

[CPT Clay]

Bump to read later.

[firewalk]

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