[NYC Republican]

As usual, some excellent political insight from the folks at www.PoliPundit.com

You may also want to check out www.realclearpolitics.com for polling info, analysis/commentary, and a great recap of the day's major stories and viewpoints.

Any thoughts on this analysis?

[My2Cents]

I'm feeling some stirring of hope we can bump off Boxer. She's never had an approval rating in California higher than 50%, which means she's even too liberal for THIS state.

[BerniesFriend]

Very interesting analysis..if I may add Louisiana in the mix with Breaux..if Breaux runs for re-election it's his..but if he should retire..which is a terrible secret around here, then the GOP has a chance to win an OPEN seat with Bush at the top of the ticket..a state he carried easily in 2000..note that I say OPEN seat..this state has not voted out an incumbent senator since 1930..and it took HUEY P. LONG to do that..incumbency is a cancer in this state (ala lying landrieu)..

[TheBigB]

The only real Dem pickup possibility is IL, and if Edgar gets in even that isn't a sure thing. I say the GOP gets GA, and probably SC. Those are the two best chances. Specter will win the primary and the general in PA.

[bigfootbob]

"8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.",

I don't think Nethercutt would make it to the first turn before he'll be many lengths behind. He'll carry Washington East of the Cascades, but doesn't have a chance in the Puget Sound "Crescent".

Osama bin Murray has a load of cash and the state GOP is AWOL. I think I saw GOP Chairman Vance holding a sign on the I-5 freeway ramp the other day, I couldn't quite read the message, something about will work for votes or something.

2004 will be ugly for the GOP here in the Peoples Dominion of Washington.

[ConservativeMan55]

Very good analysis.

[The G Man]

2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seat

Given the death of his daughter the other day, I'd find it hard to imagine him running again.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube?

I want to see Dashle say over and over again some of his most rabid anti-American statements in front of his constituents. Why is this not done more often?

Let's give 'em enough rope.

[afuturegovernor]

I think we lose IL and pick up NC, GA, and SC.

[Jim Noble]

Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cycles

Only among RATs.

In 1981, states that Gore won by >54% had 13 GOP Senators. Now they have two.

In 1981, states that Bush won by >54% had eleven RAT Senators. Now they have-eleven.

All the "ideology" in the Senate races (and the author is right, there has been a marked increase) has been on the other side. We are not even in the fight.

[mabelkitty]

Hollings will definately retire. He isn't raising cash.

Daschle's Catholic problem may have repercussions for the whole party.

Edwards is in deep trouble. There are Dems in the state attempting to get a "same day registration/same day vote" law passed. This usually means Dems need fraud.

Asa Hutchinson is hot.

[madprof98]

Republicans will likely pick up this seat; it's just a question of which candidate will be nominated. I'd prefer a genuine conservative like Congressman Jack Kingston to a mushy moderate like Congressman Johnny Isaakson.

It's not just a matter of taste. Johnny Isakson is a Congressman right now only because Newt Gingrich "willed" him his old seat. On a statewide level, Isakson is a two-time loser whose ill-fated 1996 Senate campaign was based largely on his pro-abortion position. Unfortunately, he has already gathered in a tremendous amount of cash and the endorsement of allegedly conservative (but out-of-state corporate-owned) media outlets. If this Rockefeller RINO also gets the White House nod and takes the primary, social conservatives will sit out the race, and whatever Dem claims to be the New Zell will win.

[Califelephant]

Rosario Marin sounds good to beat Boxer in CA (Republican vote + Hispanic vote is a pretty good one-two punch), but hopefully she is a tough cookie, because Boxer can be brutal in the final days of a campaign.

[LS]

I heard Rush talk about a new poll showing "Puff" trailing Thune in a hypothetical vote by 4 points. More important, the "Puffster" is way below 50% in re-elect, which is usually a death sentence on an incumbent.

[eureka!]

bump for later...

[RightOnGOP]

My thoughts are.......Pat Toomey has jumped too soon. He should have waited a bit longer. Challenging Specter might not work out to our benefit. Now, Arlen could be more conservative but he's in an important seat (PA). We do not need to cannabilize our own.

And the big picture is always.......what kind of working margin does President Bush have in the Senate/House? We cannot cede any ground to those traitorous, self-interested, obstructionist Democrats.

This website's analysis makes it sound like Travelin' Johnny Edwards is wildly unpopular in NC, which is not true. Voters are just apathetic at this point, and things will be much closer than it appears, as we near Election Day 2004. NC is still a majority Dem state, which votes GOP in Prez races. It is still an uphill battle for other GOPers, both statewide and local. Edwards is too slick and too much of a liar to be underestimated, so let's don't.

[Always Right]

The only thing playing against Republicans is that moderates are uneasy having either party in complete power and will split their vote based on that. Republicans should pick up some seats, but it will be limited by moderate voters who will not vote a straight ticket.

[JohnnyZ]

but Kingston and other conservatives are, surprisingly, yet to throw their hats into the ring.

I like his unconventional use of "are yet", though he split it up and ruined the effect. (Folks nowadays use "have yet".)

[JohnnyZ]

3. Blanche Lincoln (AR) - Popular governor Mike Huckabee can probably take out lightweight Lincoln. Sources say he's getting ready to run. Popular former congressman and current DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson has been making trips to Arkansas, stroking speculation that he might run for the Senate in 2004. Either of these GOPers would prove a major headache for Lincoln.

4. Harry Reid (NV) - Senate Democratic Whip Harry Reid always wins his seat by tiny margins. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons is gearing up to challenge him in 2004 and he'll probably face another tough re-election fight. Having Bush at the top of the ticket just might be enough to tip the scales against him.

These are the only two I really take issue with. Voters aren't too uncomfortable about Lincoln. The challenger would need to run a very good, positive campaign about himself rather than about her, because she's not offensive enough to drive voter sentiment. They will, however, vote FOR a conservative.

Reid's race should be higher on the list b/c polipundit has ignored the change in Nevada since 1998. 208621 people voted to reelect Reid by 0.1% in 1998. In 2002, 301100 people voted for a GOP congressman, including 149574 for likely challenger Jim Gibbons. Gibbons is favored to win from the outset, though of course a brilliant campaign, new wedge issue, or whatever can always upset apple carts for either party.

[Stay the course]

The Senate should be rightfully Republican. Bush won 30 states in 2000 and, if each of them elected two GOP senators, Republicans would enjoy a 60-40 advantage in the Senate. ... Out of 19 Democrats, 10 are from states that Bush won in 2000. Out of 15 Republicans, only 3 are from states that Gore won in 2000.

This ignores the fact that some states vote differently for President and Senator. The Dakotas are extreme examples, but in general, you can't extrapolate results from one office to another. They're assuming that the fact that 13 of the 34 Senators up for re-election are from the party that lost their states' Presidential election in 2000 is an anomaly that will be corrected. It may just be the way people normally vote in those states.

[familyofman]

A very interesting analysis - I would put in in the "best case" scenario column. It would be very interesting to see a "worst case" scenario, although I have no idea where to find one, maybe from the DNC.