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3. Blanche Lincoln (AR) - Popular governor Mike Huckabee can probably take out lightweight Lincoln. Sources say he's getting ready to run. Popular former congressman and current DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson has been making trips to Arkansas, stroking speculation that he might run for the Senate in 2004. Either of these GOPers would prove a major headache for Lincoln.

4. Harry Reid (NV) - Senate Democratic Whip Harry Reid always wins his seat by tiny margins. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons is gearing up to challenge him in 2004 and he'll probably face another tough re-election fight. Having Bush at the top of the ticket just might be enough to tip the scales against him.

These are the only two I really take issue with. Voters aren't too uncomfortable about Lincoln. The challenger would need to run a very good, positive campaign about himself rather than about her, because she's not offensive enough to drive voter sentiment. They will, however, vote FOR a conservative.

Reid's race should be higher on the list b/c polipundit has ignored the change in Nevada since 1998. 208621 people voted to reelect Reid by 0.1% in 1998. In 2002, 301100 people voted for a GOP congressman, including 149574 for likely challenger Jim Gibbons. Gibbons is favored to win from the outset, though of course a brilliant campaign, new wedge issue, or whatever can always upset apple carts for either party.

Arkansas and Nevada are prime pick-ups in 2004, although they will hardly be pushovers. Blanche Lincoln isn't especially liked or disliked in Arkansas. Her winning vote total in 1998 was not very impressive (386,822) as compared to what Huckabee has done in both 1998 and 2002 (415,931 and 429,450 respectively). Bush got 472,120 votes in 2000 and one could probably assume that a decent amount of extra votes could go the way of whatever Republican nominee runs in 2004. A run by a well-financed Huckabee would probably be enough to knock off Lincoln. Nevada tells a similar story. Republican congressional candidates took over 300,000 votes in 2002 and Governor Kenny Guinn received almost 350,000 votes as well. Jim Gibbons alone received 149,000 votes. John Ensign recieved almost 350,000 votes when he won in 2000. Harry Reid received only 208,000 votes in 1998 and his highest-ever vote total was 253,150 in 1992. Given those numbers, it is really just a matter of getting the Republican votes to the polls on Election Day. Reid cannot win unless he gets a huge voter turnout in the Las Vegas area and that was the area with the lowest voter turnout in 2002. A well-funded run by Gibbons in 2004 will be very tough for Reid to beat.