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2004 Senate Update (Predictions for '04 Senate Races)
http://www.polipundit.com/ ^
| 4/17/03 2:00
| polipundit.com
Posted on 04/17/2003 11:08:07 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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As usual, some excellent political insight from the folks at www.PoliPundit.com
You may also want to check out www.realclearpolitics.com for polling info, analysis/commentary, and a great recap of the day's major stories and viewpoints.
Any thoughts on this analysis?
To: NYC Republican
I'm feeling some stirring of hope we can bump off Boxer. She's never had an approval rating in California higher than 50%, which means she's even too liberal for THIS state.
2
posted on
04/17/2003 11:11:37 AM PDT
by
My2Cents
("Well....there you go again.")
To: NYC Republican
Very interesting analysis..if I may add Louisiana in the mix with Breaux..if Breaux runs for re-election it's his..but if he should retire..which is a terrible secret around here, then the GOP has a chance to win an OPEN seat with Bush at the top of the ticket..a state he carried easily in 2000..note that I say OPEN seat..this state has not voted out an incumbent senator since 1930..and it took HUEY P. LONG to do that..incumbency is a cancer in this state (ala lying landrieu)..
To: My2Cents
The key, IMO, is to get someone who's not too conservative, but supports most of our platform (i.e.- not totally pro-life)... It's certainly not the ideal situation, but, alas, California is like New York- a stong conservative just can't win state-wide. The last person to do that in NY was D'Amato, and he'd have no chance of winning now.
To: NYC Republican
The only real Dem pickup possibility is IL, and if Edgar gets in even that isn't a sure thing. I say the GOP gets GA, and probably SC. Those are the two best chances. Specter will win the primary and the general in PA.
5
posted on
04/17/2003 11:19:52 AM PDT
by
TheBigB
(**FOX NEWS ALERT Saddam Hussein is dead. Unless he's alive. THIS HAS BEEN A FOX NEWS ALERT**)
To: NYC Republican
"8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.",I don't think Nethercutt would make it to the first turn before he'll be many lengths behind. He'll carry Washington East of the Cascades, but doesn't have a chance in the Puget Sound "Crescent".
Osama bin Murray has a load of cash and the state GOP is AWOL. I think I saw GOP Chairman Vance holding a sign on the I-5 freeway ramp the other day, I couldn't quite read the message, something about will work for votes or something.
2004 will be ugly for the GOP here in the Peoples Dominion of Washington.
To: NYC Republican
Very good analysis.
To: NYC Republican
2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seatGiven the death of his daughter the other day, I'd find it hard to imagine him running again.
8
posted on
04/17/2003 11:21:54 AM PDT
by
The G Man
(Hey CNN ... "NO BLOOD FOR RATINGS!!!")
To: ConservativeMan55
If I keep posting their stuff, you'll think I'm on their payroll... It's actually one of the first sites I check out each morning... After FR, of course.
My favorite BLOG site.
To: NYC Republican
What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube?
I want to see Dashle say over and over again some of his most rabid anti-American statements in front of his constituents. Why is this not done more often?
Let's give 'em enough rope.
To: The G Man
While I would definitely not say Hollings would use his daughter's death to his advantage in a Senate race, you can be certain the Phlegmocrats see his daughter's death as a boon to landing a sympathy vote in S.C.
To: My2Cents
More likely, she's too stupid. But this IS California!
12
posted on
04/17/2003 11:25:03 AM PDT
by
norge
To: bigfootbob
That's unfortuanate... Is it a California effect? Bringing Oregon and Wash into the (lib) fold? Just wondering how they've swung so far left over the past several years. Cali you can see, due to their demographics...
To: NYC Republican
I was thinking that D'Amato should try for another run...perhaps NY is just fed up enough with the twosome traitors that they'd remember a good senator and re-elect him!
To: Only1choice____Freedom
"What I would love to see is clips of these Dem's saying rabid things in their own words and actions on TV. It has really made up my mind in the past. How many times did we see Bush Sr. say: "No new taxes" on the glassy tube? "
I've ALWAYS wondered that as well. One great example would be all of the war naysayers, predicting gloom and doom. Even better would be Algore's comments about what a horrible world it would be under Bush.
To: WillVoteForFood
Any sympathy gained would dissipate in a few weeks. It'll never carry over into late 2004.
To: NYC Republican
I think we lose IL and pick up NC, GA, and SC.
Comment #18 Removed by Moderator
To: NYC Republican
Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cyclesOnly among RATs.
In 1981, states that Gore won by >54% had 13 GOP Senators. Now they have two.
In 1981, states that Bush won by >54% had eleven RAT Senators. Now they have-eleven.
All the "ideology" in the Senate races (and the author is right, there has been a marked increase) has been on the other side. We are not even in the fight.
To: princess leah
It'll never happen. As long as a candidate is pro-life, the Dems will lasso it around their necks like a tire necklace. This issue is THAT potent in NY... and N.J. and California.
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