Deloping SARS Pandemic?

April 2003 | Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

[Lucas1]

This guy has been sending out email updates...since this started. Thought this was interesting...with the numbers.

Have no opininon one way or another as to whether SARS is going to become a pandemic or not...but the article is worth reading.

Letter...

Hi, Jeff... I'm writing to give your audience some sense of what they might expect relative to the SARS crisis as it is unfolding. I've supplied immediately below some dates and numbers infected that summarize a rather involved mathematical model in a few words.

1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th. 2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th. 3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th. 4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd. 5. To surpass 7,000 between April 21st to April 25th. 6. To surpass 8,000 beween April 23rd to April 27th. 7. To surpass 9,000 between April 25th to April 29th. 8. To surpass 10,000 between April 26th to April 30th.

The above data are generated employing a mathematical model. The model is exponential using an exponent of 1.12 and establishing 99% confidence intervals around the projected number of worldwide infected.

I have no idea if these numbers will actually pan-out to be the reality of the situation. Let's hope not. However, so to alert you and your audience, I wanted you to have these data. Should these numbers be close to accurate, I would expect that SARS will become more of a news item than the Iraq War toward the end of this month.

Should these numbers be right, indicating that the model is a useful predictor of future number infected, it would be reasonable to expect that:

1. Between May 6th to May 10th, there could be 20,000 cases worldwide. 2. Between May 16th and May 20th there could be 40,000 cases worldwide. 3. By the end of May, it would be reasonable to expect over 100,000 cases of SARS worldwide.

The month of May would be a very frightening time for the world relative to a developing SARS pandemic. There would be substantial impact by May, given the above scenario, on travel, commerce, and national securities of various nation-states. By May, if it is going to be serious, it WILL be serious by then.

Reports from various sources suggest a pandemic is unfolding. For example, "Unfortunately, it's an epidemic now that will become a pandemic," predicted Donald Low, chief microbiologist at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital." Source: http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/5552879.htm

However, another source opines: "It's too soon to tell whether a deadly new respiratory illness will become a global pandemic, but it would take extreme luck for it to be contained now, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, according the Associated Press today. "In an executive order signed Friday, Bush added SARS to the list of diseases for which health authorities have authority to involuntarily quarantine Americans. It's the first time a new disease has been added to the list in two decades. "If spread in the population," the order says, SARS "would have severe public health consequences."

Source: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/4/4/174732.shtml

Again, I provide these data to you, Jeff, so that you and your readers can effective guage the information presented by WHO and CDC, e.g., http://www.cdc.gov , and compare the developing real numbers from those organizations to the above model so to be able to anticipate a pandemic. If by April 22nd, we are seeing more than 6,000 people infected with SARS worldwide, it would be highly likely that we are headed into a pandemic. On the other hand, if by April 22nd, we are seeing the number of infected individuals worldwide hovering around 4,000 or less, we can all breath a sigh of relief as it would appear from that observation that efforts to control SARS are being successful and a pandemic has been averted. While there would still be regional epidemics, a global pandemic would not easily happen.

Thanks, Jeff, for your services to all of us.

Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

[Lucas1]

This guy has been sending out email updates...since this started. Thought this was interesting...with the numbers.

Have no opinion one way or another as to whether SARS is going to become a pandemic or not...but the article is worth reading.

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[sphinx]

I'm not sure his parents did this guy a favor when they named him. Unless he's a direct descendant, of course.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

NEVER FORGET


SARS is coming from Seats of EVIL:

HO CHI MINH's Hanoi...

..-&-..

MAO TSE TUNG's China Province Birth Place.

NEVER FORGET

[Nachoman]

I may have to eat these words later, but this guy reminds me of the statisticians of the '70s who thought a barrel of oil would sell for $300 in ten years. These models fail to take into account intervening factors; that is, the fact people tend to respond to bad situations in order to correct them.

[Lucas1]

True but if you read what he says...he does take that into account. He admits that there are factors that can prevent this. For instance...what Canada is doing.

[VoteHarryBrowne2000]

As of today the WHO has 2781 cases of SARS listed on their web site. The USA is leading the non-Asian countries.

[Lucas1]

1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th.

2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th.

3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th.

4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd.

5. To surpass 7,000 between April 21st to April 25th.

6. To surpass 8,000 beween April 23rd to April 27th.

7. To surpass 9,000 between April 25th to April 29th.

8. To surpass 10,000 between April 26th to April 30th.

[Myrddin]

Is a Licensed Clinic Social Worker a good source for information that should be coming from an epidemiologist?

[Myrddin]

Clinic == Clinical

[aruanan]

Oh no! Not a deloping pandemic! Those are the worst kind.

[verity]

Achoooooo! Oh, damn!

[Prince Charles]

My sentiments exactly!

[WhiskeyPapa]

I've heard that even if one survives SARS there is scarring of the lungs. Can anyone confirm that?

Walt

[Amalie]

interesting post...

[mabelkitty]

No, I believe Canada is leading the non-Asian countries.

[SHKMAN1212]

One of the problems with this model is that it is not taking into account a few variables. First of all, he (nor any other source) are backing out the recovery cases. Secondly, they're not factoring in the incubation period for the disease to get an accurate reading of the actual mortality rate (you cannot simply take total deaths and divide by the total cases if it takes 7-10 days from the date of diagnosis to death). Lastly, he isn't explaining how this reaches a pandemic without a geometric increase in the number of cases. To achieve a more accurate reading on the growth of infections you MUST back out the Chinese numbers since they are neither accurate nor updated on a regular basis.

The good news is that there isn't a geometric increase in the number of cases. The bad news is that the mortality rate is closer to 7% instead of the 4% that they're stating.

[Lucas1]

A mod could correct my error in the headline...

[TBall]

"I've heard that even if one survives SARS there is scarring of the lungs." I don't know what the number is, but a certain percentage is probably left with scarred lungs. The thing that gets me is that experts fear that SARS will be reoccurring in patients. Imagine a few months from now recovered patients break out with SARS and are contagious. I pray that reoccurrence is not the case.