[Nachoman]

I may have to eat these words later, but this guy reminds me of the statisticians of the '70s who thought a barrel of oil would sell for $300 in ten years. These models fail to take into account intervening factors; that is, the fact people tend to respond to bad situations in order to correct them.

[Lucas1]

True but if you read what he says...he does take that into account. He admits that there are factors that can prevent this. For instance...what Canada is doing.

[bert]

These models fail to take into account intervening factors

Like winter is over.

[HardStarboard]

Not sure where I read this - but they found a guy with very severe symptoms (now confirmed) of SARS that had taken 6 or 8 plane flights since he first had the symptoms. He had gone from the far east to africa to three cities in europe and back to the far east.

The only good news was he didn't land in the states.