Quagmire! What? No Quagmire? Part II
'Powerful evidence' emerged Friday, the major media reported, that Saddam not only survived an initial U.S. bombing raid targeting command bunkers the opening night of the war, but that the butcher is alive and well, though it's still not clear the Butcher's alive and well because, um, the much-touted 'powerful evidence' -- a speech by Saddam broadcast on 'Fair 'n Balanced' Iraqi TV -- couldn't be dated with certainty. Other than that, it's still powerful evidence! (See liberal media).* Reference to a downed U.S. chopper in the speech = power evidence Saddam is alive.
* Truckloads of Iraqi gas masks, chemical weapons suits, nerve agent antidotes, how-to manuals for waging chemical warfare = no evidence Saddam possesses WMD.
Comprende now?
Besides, no one could ever concoct a story like that -- a downed helicopter in a war? Too much of a stretch. I mean, it's not like Saddam writes novels or anything, or knew of U.S. Apache helicopters before March 24. On the other hand, the dictator did forget one itsy-bitsy thing in his speech: Iraq TV claimed it was two choppers, not one, that were downed that day. Oh, and that the crew were captured and are held as POWs. Must be all that white powder in his brain.
So, what does the Butcher do these days to stay healthy and fit? According to Arab television -- CNN, for example -- he strolls along the streets of Baghdad, hobnobbing in broad daylight with folks in the city, in easy range of U.S. artillery and in full view of armed drones overhead. Not bloody likely.
The media hailed his public "appearance" as yet more 'proof' Rummy's no match for Saddam, except for one pesky detail: Saddam may be dead. No way to know when the film was filmed, unlike Live Rummy Pentagon briefings.
Meanwhile, divisions in Saddam's Cabinet grew wider Friday. Iraqi propaganda minister Mohamed Said Sahahahaf shrugged off reports that U.S. troops had seized Saddam International Airport in Baghdad, though he threatened U.S. troops with "unconventional" attacks unless they end their seizure of Saddam International Airport in Baghdad -- immediately. Shahahaf denies by "unconventional" he means WMD. No, no, no -- "unconventional" here means suicide bombers busy doing things "unconventional" for suicide bombers, like, um, suicide bombing.
Adding to the confusion, Saddam went on national television, urging Iraqis to drive the Yankee invaders out only a day after his propaganda minister claimed the whole invasion thingy was a Bush 'Wag-the-dog' thingy.
Okay, so it wasn't a ploy, Sahahahaf later confessed. No problemo -- heroic Iraqis took care it, he said, driving them Yankee "mercenaries" into total retreat, high-tailing back to Kuwait, as Iraqi forces inflicted thousands of U.S. casualties and thousands of U.S. Marines surrendered. Iraqi losses? ZERO!
"Strike [the enemy] forcefully," Saddam urged Iraqis in his televised address.
"Strike them by the force of faith whenever they come close to you. Resist them...stick to your principles, your patriotism, the honor of men and women..." Don't flee -- stay and fight!
Reaction from Iraqis? They fled, with thousands bolting the capital "as U.S. forces seized the international airport on the city's western edge and armored convoys pressed in from the south," the AP reports.
Meanwhile, in a further 'setback' to coalition forces, "Marines claimed the surrender of 2,500 troops from the now-shredded Republican Guard," the AP reports, while "Kurdish forces seized a key bridge at Khazer near the major northern city of Mosul on Friday and crossed into the village" as brave Iraqi troops bravely retreated.
Oops -- did I mention how tanks with the U.S. 3rd Division pushed through impregnable Iraqi lines this morning, ending up right in the center of Baghdad? ;) "Reconnaissance probes" is how the AP described it. Regime change is what I call it.
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Quagmire! What? No Quagmire?
The Prediction business, when it comes to war, is tricky stuff. Too many variables, too many unknowables. You can war game and war game, but any General worth his salt expects lots of surprises on the battlefield. That's just the nature of the beast. War plans, the saying goes, are only good until the shooting starts.
Yes, it's early, and, as Gen. Richard Myers is quick to note, plenty of battles lie yet ahead. But we're two weeks into this, lots of things have happened, and there were, as you know, plenty of early arm chair commandos who weren't exactly shy about giving "advice." Especially on TV. Plenty of predictions about the course of the war were laid on the table. How did they fare?
I must say, I'm impressed. Take Johanna McGeary, Senior Foreign Correspondent for TIME magazine, for instance.
"War designed to fit a theory, as the Bush administration learned last week," McGeary wrote, "can falter when key assumptions don't pan out. After months of selling its case, the Administration gave the impression it had devised a Teflon war...War boosters predicted that Iraq's leadership would snap, Iraqi forces would surrender, Iraqi citizens would welcome American soldiers with open arms."
McGeary, as of Sunday, March 30, said nothing remotely like that had happened, nor was likely to happen.
Our war planners are no match for Saddam, you see.
McGeary continues: "Iraqis are resisting vigorously. And they're doing it so in ways that seem to have caught Washington off guard...Saddam has counterattacked...he let allied forces plunge deep inside Iraq, leaving their rear and flanks ill protected so that his forces could harass and ambush them. His aim was shrewd and twofold: to pester and wear down allied forces and lure the U.S. into inflicting politically costly civilian casualties."
"That's not how the theologians predicted the campaign would unfold," added McGeary, giddily. "The theory was that the initial display of military might by U.S. warplanes and ground troops would 'shock and awe' the Iraqi military and high-ranking officials into the conviction that resistance was futile...The despot's regime, Administration officials insisted, was too 'brittle' to survive such an onslaught. Iraqi troops would defect en masse, they suggested. But 'shock and awe' has failed to deliver...punishing strikes damaged trappings of Saddam's power but failed to crack the regime..." Saddam remains firmly "in control. Iraqis have endured bombing intermittently for more than 12 years and have learned resilience."
Here's the heart of "Field Marshal" Saddam's superior war plan, according to McGeary: "...Saddam played to his limited strengths...Saddam carefully chose forces that could handle double duty, tying down coalition troops with stubborn stream of skirmishes while compelling local populations to stay loyal."
The Rummy plan was a failure on every level, in short. Saddam remains in charge, his troops aren't surrendering, the locals aren't welcoming the Yankee invaders.
Well?
An embedded reporter for Sky News assessed the situation Thursday night from Baghdad this way: "I have to say, Simon, the way we rolled through from the Euphrates river yesterday, the number of surrendering Iraqis; the number of discarded uniforms, boots and helmets that we saw; the number of waving Iraqi civilians, giving thumbs-ups and smiles to us, indicates that there is certainly a considerable amount of good will awaiting the Americans."
See? Like I said, I'm impressed. McGeary's track record for superbly erroneous predictions based on brilliantly flawed "analysis" remains unbroken. Way to go, McGeary!
And still no sign of Saddam.
Or take Joseph L. Galloway who last Sunday wrote this for the Mercury News:
"Saddam has managed to preserve many of his best forces by moving, dispersing and sheltering them -- and, some U.S. officials say, by using decoys to deplete American stocks of precision munitions...Iraqi strategy appears to have been leading coalition forces to believe they would not encounter significant opposition until they got to Baghdad..."
Sure, the Yanks and the Brits were able to get close to Baghdad, but allowing his country to be invaded with little resistance was all part of Saddam's wily master plan, you see!
"So it still isn't clear whether the United States will get the Desert Storm-type decisive battle outside Baghdad it wants," Galloway added.
Quagmire! Quagmire!
What? No quagmire?
So what did this "failed military plan" of Rummy's achieve the first two weeks?
Summarizing, 'failed' Allied forces, days into battle, "failed" all the way to the gates of the capital, Baghdad, suffering few combat casualties, compounding the 'failure.' Then, soon after, in operational pause mode, pounded invincible Republican Guard divisions to pulp, pushed through the 'Red line,' grabbed Saddam International Airport (renamed Baghdad International Airport), now poised to take the rest of Baghdad.
But there were other devastating 'failures,' thanks to the Rummy plan. 'Failures' like no Scud attacks on Israel, no humanitarian disaster, no Iraqi refugee flows, no out of control oil fires. And no wave of terrorist attacks here in the U.S.
Okay, okay, so Saddam, the media and the Democrats have had a couple of tough weeks. But hope springs eternal.
After all, "Iraqi state television," Reuters reports Friday, "detailed...President Saddam Hussein's tips to senior officials on how to resist invading forces."
"Victory is certain and it is in our hands," Reuters quotes Saddam as promising.
In other words, don't count the Butcher out.
Wait...where is the Butcher, anyway? Gee, could it be that Rummy's 'failed' plan decapitated the Baghdad regime in the opening strike? ;)
Anyway, that's..
My two cents...
"JohnHuang2"
