Posted on 03/19/2003 5:14:08 PM PST by GeneD
Filed at 7:39 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is intensifying his efforts to hide in Baghdad before the onset of war, U.S. officials said.
Saddam went on television Tuesday, appearing in military fatigues for the first time in years. After that, American officials said, he took steps to lower his profile in the city to an even greater degree than normal.
Saddam, whom officials describe as obsessed with his personal security, keeps a network of bunkers and other hiding places in and around the capital. He moves between them frequently, surrounded by security forces.
Any U.S.-led war on Iraq could come to a fast end should he be killed, officials suggested. But U.S. officials and Iraq experts who have studied Saddam say he still believes he will not only survive but prevail.
As American officials predicted, Saddam has refused President Bush's call to leave the country, even though he is faced by a vastly superior military force that soon may cross Iraq's southern border.
That's Saddam being Saddam, said Jerrold Post, a former CIA profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University. Winning, in Saddam's view, is simply surviving a crisis, which he has done time and time again, Post said.
``Having the courage to stand up to a superior adversary means points in that part of the world,'' said Post, who founded the CIA's Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior. ``This is part of Saddam's psychology.''
Saddam's behavior and statements as well as intelligence information all suggest he is expecting to remain in power, American officials say.
In the past, Saddam has survived his major mistakes, including his invasion of Iran and then Kuwait. U.S. officials believe this has led him to think he can survive this latest crisis.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts, who receives secret briefings from CIA officials, said he saw little chance of Saddam leaving the presidency.
``I suppose hope springs eternal, but I've said before the chances are pretty slim and none -- and slim left home,'' said Roberts, R-Kan.
Post suggested Saddam will try to create a Vietnam-like quagmire for U.S. forces, trying to turn American voters against Bush.
Iraq's preparations for war have been complete for some time. Defense officials, citing intelligence reports, say Iraqi troops are now dug in, hoping to protect themselves from air strikes, and are not moving much.
An exception came a few weeks ago, when elements of a Republican Guard division in Iraq's northern reaches shifted south to Tikrit, Saddam's hometown that is just north of Baghdad.
Because Iraq's conventional forces cannot hope to match American and British firepower, defense and intelligence officials have predicted Saddam would try some unconventional tactics.
U.S. intelligence has some information that Iraqi forces have wired some of the country's oilfields with explosives. While detonating them would create an environmental and economic disaster, officials stopped short of saying the information was certain.
Officials said he also could try to draw two groups into the fight: his own people and Israel. Attempting to stage atrocities and then blaming them on U.S. bombing might fire up Iraqi civilians, creating a nightmare for advancing U.S. troops.
Lobbing a VX-filled Scud missile at Tel Aviv could incite an Israeli military response, in turn pushing several nearby Muslim countries toward Saddam's camp, officials said.
Saddam could try to use his chemical or biological stockpile on U.S. troops. His Republican Guard divisions, most of which are guarding the approaches to Baghdad, are thought to have chemical weapons and possibly orders to use them.
Bush, in his national address Monday, tried to dissuade Iraqis from following any such orders.
``Do not destroy oil wells, a source of wealth that belongs to the Iraqi people,'' Bush said. ``Do not obey any command to use weapons of mass destruction against anyone, including the Iraqi people.''
Any country that would blame Israel for responding to a chemical attack is no better than Saddam IMHO. Sharon will unleash a response that will be severe, as he has every right to do.
I KNOW Mr. Sharon is itching to demonstrate that Israel will respond. I think many in Israel consider their failure to respond in Gulf War I a major factor in increased terror attacks.
That's the idea I had on Monday:
GW announces 48 hours.
Tuesday he announces only 36 hours left.
Wednesday he announces only 24 hours left.
Thursday he announces only 18 hours left.
Friday he announces only 12 hours left.
Saturday he announces only 6 hours left.
Nobody's home by Sunday. Keep 'em guessing!
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