Posted on 11/26/2002 5:01:55 PM PST by rohry
I guarantee this will happen. It's happened every quarter since 2000...
They got to get them low enough so that the reporting company can -- as Maria says, "Beat the Street!!"
Richard W.
"And the beat goes on..."
Today may well have been the first day of the next major down wave. We should know for sure by the end of next week, although the holiday trading period through next monday may well lack conviction and clear direction. But the put/call ratio, advisor/investor sentiment, mutual fund cash levels, VIX and VXN indices, and the relative size and timing of the current rally are all signalling that the time for resumption of the bear's ferocity is at hand.
Look out below.
That is not the opinion of the oil industry, at least in private.
I've noticed something interesting in the stocks which I follow. The ones that have a rational reason to go up in price are beginning to build. Maybe that's a good sign that the market will at least be understandable at some point.
Just my two totally unrelated thoughts.
Could be but then again who knows. There are very powerful forces that have a huge vested interest in keeping the bubble alive and the mania going. Somehow, everything is now crosswired into Wall Street. SUNW just made some interesting comments. Shows that they still don't have any pricing power. I am skeptical of their forcasts for next year though. It sounds too much like CSCO's repeated, "We're ready to take advantage of the turnaround" talk that they use to sound positive for the usual media hype.
Sun Says Sales Holding Up, but Margins Aren't
Richard W.
Ususally start hearing things about the middle of the last month of a quarter right into earnings reports. Should be mid December but remember, the bar has been lowered to prevent disappointments so fewer companies will have to warn.
If the rules don't work, change the rules.
Richard W.
Aren't they always?
We can do that too. They fly airplanes into buildings full of civilians, or loose poison gas in the subway, we destroy every palace and military installation in their countries. Using everything from small but smart weapons, to the BIG ONE, as required.
You see these commodity prices going up: Oil is maybe in part the result of poitical circumstances; Wheat and the midwest grains are up but clearly the result of a supply threat resulting from weather; natural gas is up on a clear threat to long term supply--it is as low as it is because of presumed storage; because the reserves in the ground are being rapidly depleated and there is no sign of drilling to restore the situation. Issue is are in we a deflation or do the increasing commodity prices reflect inflation.
The inflation deflation issue is a monetary issue--how much money is out there and how fast is it moving as a determinant of price levels (MV=PT). These commodity prices all seem to me to reflect structural supply demand factors and not the money.
There is lots of oil out there--a pipeline from the Caspian Sea would in fact lower energy costs in the US. However an effective cartel and political limitations and war risk are clearly factors holding the price up. However in the best of worlds where the US is able to capture Iraq production intact, either as a result of an abdication or as a result of a favorable war outcome which I view as suspect, it is difficult to see a material impact on prices.
If anything, I think the current market already assumes the most favorable conflict result and there is unpriced risk in the actual situation.
I disagree. I count 4 or 5 of ten recessions closer to local peaks than troughs. Well within the realm of chance.
Never happen. Civilians. It would be like bombing Chicago cause we know that there are terrorists living there.
Richard W.
Yes, but at what price?
ME oil is shallow and cheap to produce, but Iraq's wells have problems and might take years to come back fully on line. There is a school of thought that SA isn't unhappy with Saddam, because he has screwed up production and really is pumping all he can now.
Ten years ago a major told me to get my passport and be ready to go to the Caspian Sea, I am still here. There is still fighting over slicing up that pie.
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