[rohry]

"There are a lot of questions regarding Q4. The Street has already lowered pro forma estimates to 14.9% for the quarter. I say pro forma because the real GAAP numbers, of course, will be much worse. But in this game of earnings that is played each quarter, we now deal with fiction and make believe rather than reality. Estimates should begin dropping each week as we get closer to the end of the quarter."

I guarantee this will happen. It's happened every quarter since 2000...

[rohry]

Market WrapUp is delivered...

[arete]

Estimates should begin dropping each week as we get closer to the end of the quarter.

They got to get them low enough so that the reporting company can -- as Maria says, "Beat the Street!!"

Richard W.

[Fzob]

bump

[Gritty]

BTTT

[grania]

This week, when I was in the stores, I noticed that there was less than usual early hype for Christmas. That's a little surprising, since this is the year when there is a short interval between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which cuts down on the prime spending season. Of course, who knows what the consumers are going to do, since they aren't spending money they've actually earned.

I've noticed something interesting in the stocks which I follow. The ones that have a rational reason to go up in price are beginning to build. Maybe that's a good sign that the market will at least be understandable at some point.

Just my two totally unrelated thoughts.

[El Gato]

Various NGOs are running simulation games on financial collapse

Aren't they always?

[El Gato]

so asymmetric tactics will be used against us

We can do that too. They fly airplanes into buildings full of civilians, or loose poison gas in the subway, we destroy every palace and military installation in their countries. Using everything from small but smart weapons, to the BIG ONE, as required.

[Tauzero]

"As the graph below indicates, the rise in commodity prices and especially oil are closely associated with recessions in the U.S."

I disagree. I count 4 or 5 of ten recessions closer to local peaks than troughs. Well within the realm of chance.