Tuesday, 11/26, Market WrapUp (Various NGOs are running simulation games on financial collapse)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 11/26/2002 | James J. Puplava

[raygun]

The Holiday Dysfunction Season has already begun. We have moved into the holiday mode and so there's not much to learned from market current market action. Stocks are not changing their trends; they are merely fluctuating, today from up to down because it had become overbought to some degree.

[eastsider]

But the put/call ratio, advisor/investor sentiment, mutual fund cash levels, VIX and VXN indices, and the relative size and timing of the current rally are all signalling that the time for resumption of the bear's ferocity is at hand.

The VIX has been trending down at a fairly steady rate the last week or two. I don't understand how one can read a one-day uptick in the VIX as signalling a "resumption of the bear's ferocity." Then again, when it comes to reading the VIX, I'm a neophyte.

[sourcery]

The VIX has been trending down at a fairly steady rate the last week or two. I don't understand how one can read a one-day uptick in the VIX as signalling a "resumption of the bear's ferocity." Then again, when it comes to reading the VIX, I'm a neophyte.

My comment on the VIX was referring to it its steady decline towards 25, not its one day uptick (which was to be expected on a down-tick in the market).

The market action so far today is not surprising, given the favorable seasonality, and also given the fact that markets never move in only one direction to wherever they're going.

[eastsider]

My comment on the VIX was referring to it its steady decline towards 25 ...

This is the one-year chart for VIX. At present, it's below the late-August low (slightly above 30), but well above the late May low (around 20). Why do you look at 25 to signal the end of this bear-market rally?

Thanks, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

[sourcery]

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