Divided Congress will remain Bush obstacle
Posted on 11/06/2002 4:48:01 AM PST by MeekOneGOP
Divided Congress will remain Bush obstacle
Experts predict partisan bickering to continue despite GOP advances
11/06/2002
WASHINGTON - So much has changed in the last two years, but apparently that doesn't include politics. Despite a string of successes in Tuesday's elections, President Bush will still be wrestling with a closely divided Congress.
Although Republicans kept control of the House and won back the Senate, the Senate's rules would give Democrats many opportunities to frustrate Mr. Bush's plans for judges, tax cuts, prescription drugs and homeland security, analysts said.
"Neither party is going to be able to say they have enough of a mandate to do things," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
Certainly not the Democrats, who were unable to use the slumping economy and corporate scandals to gain ground in the midterm congressional elections, analysts noted. Still, even Mr. Bush's popularity, driven largely by his response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, probably won't enable him to break open the partisan deadlock that defines American politics.
That's because Republican's won't have the 60 votes needed to break Democratic filibusters. And those could be numerous as the opposition party prepares to try to oust Mr. Bush in two years.
"Sometimes it's hard to do things in the first two years," said Thomas Patterson, who teaches at Harvard University. "And it rarely gets any easier."
Early Wednesday morning, White House press secretary Ari Fleischer declared the evening a huge success, noting that the GOP reversed the trend that a president's first midterm election is usually bad for his party.
"President Bush and the Republican Party tonight have made history," Mr. Fleischer said. "By all accounts, the night is going very well."
Still, with his own re-election bid two years away, Mr. Bush figures to face more criticism from his Democratic opponents. That may include increased questions over the war on terrorism, especially if plans to remove Saddam Hussein from Iraq go awry.
Analysts said recession or another terrorist attack could tip the balance, although it would take a massive shift to fundamentally alter the central condition of politics today: the scorpions-in-a-bottle parity between the two parties.
Pausing before the battles ahead, Mr. Bush spent a low-key Election Day in Texas and Washington.
After voting at a firehouse near his ranch in Crawford, Mr. Bush flew back to the White House for a quiet evening, including an early dinner with Republican congressional leaders. Mr. Bush and wife Laura also celebrated their 25th wedding anniversary.
The president also made congratulatory phone calls to several Republican winners, including re-elected Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
Presidential strength
Administration officials said Tuesday's results show that Mr. Bush's popularity is lifting his whole party.
"A very evenly divided country has swung very strongly in terms of giving President Bush a strong, favorable job approval," Mr. Fleischer said. "That's a shift, and that's a swing."
It's also quite a contrast to where Mr. Bush stood when he took the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2001. He became president having lost the popular vote in 2000, securing an Electoral College victory after Florida recounts that led to a still-disputed Supreme Court ruling.
Less than a half-year into his term, Mr. Bush's party lost its advantage in the Senate when James Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party and became an independent. With the economy showing signs of stagnation, Democrats expressed supreme confidence in sweeping the 2002 elections.
Then came Sept. 11, 2001.
Mr. Bush's response to the terrorist attacks, including the war in Afghanistan, boosted his popularity into the stratosphere. Although approval ratings that once exceeded 90 percent have fallen in recent months, Mr. Bush remains solidly in the 60s - popularity he invested heavily in the battle for the Senate, including a record-setting slew of fund-raisers.
Even if Republicans had fallen short in the Senate, administration officials were confident that they can get things done. They noted that Mr. Bush won his major tax cut before Mr. Jeffords defected and secured education reform afterward. Last month, the Democratic-controlled Senate voted to give Mr. Bush authority to use military force against Iraq, as did the House.
But Mr. Bush clearly prefered a Republican Senate, and he hit the campaign trail hard last weekend, stumping for candidates in tight races in several states. If nothing else, GOP control of committees will make it easier for parts of Mr. Bush's agenda to get a vote on the Senate floor and would especially clear the path for his judicial nominees - though not necessarily for any appointments to fill U.S. Supreme Court vacancies.
Some Democrats and analysts also played down the meaning of a strong Republican showing in the midterm elections. They noted that Mr. Bush's election in 2000 brought in few new House members who would be vulnerable this year; they added that congressional redistricting yielded few truly competitive districts.
Democrats had hoped to keep the Senate, although analysts said that could help Mr. Bush down the line as he prepares to seek re-election.
A scapegoat
Republican control might encourage Mr. Bush to play too much to conservatives, alienating the growing number of independents; if Democrats were in control, Mr. Bush would have a scapegoat.
"If he has Democratic obstructionism, then he has an excuse," said political analyst Kathleen Hall Jamieson said. "He's almost better off if the Democrats have control."
Whichever party scrapes together a majority Tuesday, the White House and congressional Democrats figure to spend the next two years trying to break the political stalemate.
But analysts noted that throughout American history, only the Civil War and the Great Depression have sparked such a realignment. In the meantime, Democrats will try to use any economic weakness against Mr. Bush.
"This is an aberrant election - the fact that foreign policy is an issue is unusual," said Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes a nonpartisan political report in Washington, D.C. "If the economy does badly, he [Mr. Bush] better get focused on domestic issues."
E-mail djackson@dallasnews.com
Republican control might encourage Mr. Bush to play too much to conservatives, alienating the growing number of independents; if Democrats were in control, Mr. Bush would have a scapegoat.There they go again - UNDERestimating Bush. Keep it up, biased media....."If he has Democratic obstructionism, then he has an excuse," said political analyst Kathleen Hall Jamieson said. "He's almost better off if the Democrats have control."
They wish. Oh, media! Your bias is showing!
Well, yes, if he wished to govern like Bill Clinton did, bereft of ideas and satisfied with holding office.
This canard about a scapegoat is by far the most ridiculous analysis of the GOP victory, with the importance of a 60 vote threshhold coming in a close second. Bush now has the opportunity to move on a tremendous number of domestic and foreign issues. Do not underestimate the international impact of this election: the UN just witnessed an unabashed affirmation of Bush and his policies. The world will see him as stronger than ever at home, stronger than even Reagan was during the Cold War.
The Dems can't filibuster everything, and those votes on which they choose to do so will provide the battleground for '04. Bush could not have asked for a better night.
My preference would be one of these three: Hutchison, Frist or Nickles.
Except for the 2 weeks before Jim Jeffords traitorous act, the GOP hasn't controlled the House, Senate and White House since 1954... It is the one combination that hasn't been "tried" in the past 50 years. I hope and trust GWB will take advantage of this historic opportunity to move a conservative agenda (hopefully with a Reagonomics economic program to be introduced soon) through Congress. This is a great day.
Amen to ALL that ! :O)
Yes! Lott said a few minutes ago that his wife told him "Ok, big boy, you have been chasing this car a long time, what are you gonna do with it?"
My suggestion:let somebody else drive!
I heard Tim Russert spouting this same line 2 days ago to Tom Brokaw. Funny how the Dems think the Republicans would be better off if they lose. Lose to win. Hmmm. A new slogan. Why didn't we think of that. Guess we'll just have to continue doing it the old-fashioned way, just by winning.
Heheheh what is that tune...
that they is whistling as they pass the Boneyard!
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