AR POLL: US Senate (Tim Hutchinson (R) 43% v Mark Pryor 51% )

katv.com ^ | 11/02/2002 | Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group

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	US Senate

 

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If the election for the US Senate were held today, would you vote for...

Tim Hutchinson (R)	Mark Pryor (D)	Undecided
43 %	51 %	6 %

This is the fourth survey conducted by ORA on this race since August. The three previous surveys were conducted for the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group:

	August	September	October 1
Hutchinson (R)	41 %	40 %	43 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	50 %	48 %
Undecided	8 %	10 %	9 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in name recognition. Pryor's favorable rating is higher than Hutchinson's and Pryor also has a lower unfavorable rating than Hutchison:

	Favorable	Mixed	Unfavorable	Don't recognize or can't rate	Total Name Recognition
Hutchinson (R)	52 %	4 %	35 %	9 %	91 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	4 %	29 %	7 %	93 %

Pryor leads Hutchinson in the First, Second and Fourth Congressional Districts, while Hutchinson leads Pryor in the Third District:

	First District	Second District	Third District	Fourth District
Hutchinson (R)	36 %	37 %	58 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	57 %	57 %	36 %	54 %
Undecided	7 %	6 %	6 %	3 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in the support they receive from their respective parties. Hutchinson furthermore leads among Independents:

	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Hutchinson (R)	8 %	51 %	85 %
Pryor (D)	86 %	44 %	9 %
Undecided	6 %	6 %	5 %

Pryor leads among voters with a high school education or less while the two are virtually tied among voters with some college education. Hutchinson leads among college graduates:

	Some HS	HS Grad	Some College	College Graduate
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	34 %	48 %	52 %
Pryor (D)	63 %	58 %	47 %	44 %
Undecided	4 %	8 %	6 %	4 %

Pryor leads among voters 35 and older while Hutchinson leads among younger voters:

	18-35	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Hutchinson (R)	61 %	38 %	44 %	47 %	37 %
Pryor (D)	34 %	56 %	50 %	52 %	55 %
Undecided	5 %	6 %	7 %	1 %	8 %

Pryor leads among retirees and white collar workers, while Hutchinson leads among white collar voters:

	White Collar	Blue Collar	Retired
Hutchinson (R)	51 %	43 %	39 %
Pryor (D)	45 %	53 %	54 %
Undecided	4 %	4 %	7 %

Pryor leads among voters whose yearly incomes fall below $50,000 per year and Hutchinson leads among voters with incomes $75,000 or more. The two are virtually tied among the $50,000-$75,000 per year income group:

	<$20K	$20-30K	$30-40K	$40-50K	$50-75K	>$75K
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	41 %	44 %	47 %	48 %	56 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	52 %	50 %	51 %	49 %	39 %
Undecided	6 %	8 %	6 %	2 %	3 %	5 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied among whites while Pryor holds a substantial lead among African-Americans:

	White	African American
Hutchinson (R)	47 %	15 %
Pryor (D)	48 %	75 %
Undecided	5 %	9 %

Pryor leads among both men and women:

	Male	Female
Hutchinson (R)	44 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	51 %
Undecided	5 %	7 %

Methodology
Opinion Research Associates, Inc., of Little Rock, interviewed 500 randomly selected registered voters in Arkansas who said they were planning to vote in the November General Election.
Interviews were conducted by telephone during the evenings of October 23-25, and on Saturday October 26, 2002.
Interviews were conducted statewide and divided equally among the state's four congressional districts, with 125 interviews completed in each district.
The margin of error for a random sample of 500 registered voters = ±4.5 percentage points, at the 95% level of confidence. This means that the 95% of all random samples of this size will produce percentages that can be expected to vary, as a result of random variation, by no more than 4.5 percentage points from the true population parameters.
Percentages calculated on smaller subsamples will have a somewhat larger margin of error depending upon the size of the subsample. For example, the margin of error for each of the congressional districts is approximately ±9 percentage points.
Occasionally percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding error.

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[Brimack34]

Is there time too dump this wife and go back to the original?

[Lando Lincoln]

You are dead nuts on target. I have been searching the threads and the wires to learn about this heinous act that Hutchinson is guilty of. Someone help me. While I believe marriage is sacred, and separation is not for me, all I see is he left his wife and is now with another. By no means do I wish to minimize that, but if that is our criteria, then we will abandon many friends, family, leaders, etc. What IS the deal here? Was he boppin' in his office while his wife was unaware?

[Luke21]

I remember the way the Atlanta Journal/Constitution covered the Newt Gingrich divorce and you'd have thought Newt was murdering children with axes.

I am asking a question. I don't know the answer. What is Tim Hutchinson accused of doing that has him behind in this race?

[pgkdan]

Why is it the electorate finds morality when it is a Republican who screws up??

Come on...I want a GOP Senate as much as anyone else, but Hutchinson's problems in AR are all his own doing. When you run as a Christian Conservative Family Values ordained minister and then get to Wasgington DC and divorce your wife of 39 years and marry some hotty from your office you have to expect that some of the folks back home are going to be a little miffed. Don't put the choir robes on if you can't sing the song.

[KingKongCobra]

I think churchillbuff has issues.

Yes, he does. I just looked at over 500 of his previos posts. Here's a synopsys: He cut and paste the same responses over and over and over and over into multiple threads spanning several days. He's never had a good word to say for any republican candidate and he can't stand any of them. I had made a mental list of those he attacks but I got tired after a dozen. Aslo, the war on Iraq is wrong, we should remove troops from Saudi (and then everywhere else), Racicot must go, Pitt must go, we should all write in for Boob Smith, Bush ignored the economy. What a jewel he is. Where have I heard this stuff before? Go pat Go maybe?

[Lando Lincoln]

In a way, I hope all that is true so that all the voter indignation is justified. After all, character does matter. However, I have been unable to shake-out the circumstantial facts. I don't know the issues involving his split with his wife (honestly, I don't know if she dumped him!), nor do I know that his new one is a "hotty"; or if the "hotty" was the cause of the break-up. I have asked for help - certainly such a matter must have a well documented chronology.

I still come back to - what is the greater good for the electorate and the country? Maybe the answer lies above. Maybe not.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

That's right. It's the hypocrisy, not the divorce itself, that is killing Hutchinson, IMO.

[Lando Lincoln]

"That's right. It's the hypocrisy, not the divorce itself, that is killing Hutchinson, IMO."

Beautifully simple remark. This says it better than anyone else has. I'm slow when I am tired. I understand the voter response. Whether it is the best for country may be another matter.

[sweetliberty]

The troll jumped threads.

TROLLER

Troller is looking for a response...ANY response, and he will chum the waters with complaints, insults, compliments, and inflammatory tidbits hoping that someone...ANYONE, will take the bait. Generally quite harmless - practices a form of catch and release. Nonetheless, he can upset the delicate ecology of a discussion forum. Once a forum becomes aware of his presence, however, all feeding activity ceases and Troller must move on to more promising waters.

[TheLion]

The word is out.

[sweetliberty]

"Just remember what the LA Slimes did to Simon. They skewed their poll to show Davis ahead by 8 points. The RNC was so surprised, they investigated and discovered the LA Slimes had used 51% dems and 36% repubs for their poll, giving Davis the edge."

They pulled a similar stunt in Minnesota. I think we should take a page from their playbook and sue them for trying to intimidate black white voters.

[kcvl]

No, it's not anything that Hutchinson did or did not do. It's the slime bucket, butt-kissing, Gene Lyons who got all of this started via Hillary Clinton and her TRASH AT ANY COST crowd. Everyone just keeps falling for the dirty tricks these people throw around.

Does anyone remember before the Impeachment of X42 when all of a sudden Bob Barr, Bob Livingstone, Newt Gingrich, David Schippers and anyone who DARED to think about voting to IMPEACH the CREEP had their PRIVATE lives investigated? This is just another in a LONG line of PAYBACKS from HILLARY CLINTON!

Go ahead and help get the *itch elected as President!!! She is counting on "your outrage".

[sweetliberty]

"How do you know that he left her, not her leaving him or that it was a mutual divorce."

You're wasting your effort. He has been trolling all these threads on Hutchinson and he doesn't answer questions; he just gets on his moral high horse and judges everybody else.

[sweetliberty]

"So many threads---so little time"

LOL!

[sweetliberty]

"I just peaked at the weather forecast for Arkansas and I noted with a certain amount of glee that "rain and storms"are forecasted for Tuesday!"

Well, while I don't relish the idea of FReeping in the rain, if it keeps the Rat hordes at home resulting in a pathetic turnout for the dirtbag, I'll deal with it.

[kcvl]

When I hear people blame everyone in Arkansas for NOT telling them about the Clintons I have to ALMOST laugh. I tried to tell EVERYONE that I EVER met about them. They IGNORED me.

I am now trying to tell them that this is JUST ANOTHER DIRTY TRICK by HILLARY CLINTON and her butt- kissing crowd of worshippers.

When she is elected President of the United States I DON'T want to hear ONE WORD about trying to tell them about her. NOT ONE!!!

[Arkinsaw]

It took a 150 years to get a Republican Senator in Arkansas. I guess its worth another 150 year wait in order to punish Mr. Hutchinson for getting a divorce. After all, its just six years of a liberal Mark Pryor and at least two with Daschle in control of the agenda in Washington. A small price to pay for Mr. Hutchinson to get his comeuppance.

[kcvl]

It is people like you who helped elect the Clintons each and every time! I don't want to hear about it ever again if Hillary Clinton is elected President. I will be in your face at every chance I get to remind you that your "morals" helped put her in office.

Please tell me what you have gained for punishing Hutchinson for getting a DIVORCE that was UNCONTESTED by his ex-wife?! His son supports him and I think he knows a lot more about the situation than any of us do!

I don't want to marry the guy just have him elected as senator instead of MARK PRYOR supported by HILLARY CLINTON'S HILLPAC...

She will need MARK PRYOR when she runs for President! Believe me he will be there for her!!! GAG!