AR POLL: US Senate (Tim Hutchinson (R) 43% v Mark Pryor 51% )

katv.com ^ | 11/02/2002 | Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group

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	US Senate

 

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If the election for the US Senate were held today, would you vote for...

Tim Hutchinson (R)	Mark Pryor (D)	Undecided
43 %	51 %	6 %

This is the fourth survey conducted by ORA on this race since August. The three previous surveys were conducted for the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group:

	August	September	October 1
Hutchinson (R)	41 %	40 %	43 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	50 %	48 %
Undecided	8 %	10 %	9 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in name recognition. Pryor's favorable rating is higher than Hutchinson's and Pryor also has a lower unfavorable rating than Hutchison:

	Favorable	Mixed	Unfavorable	Don't recognize or can't rate	Total Name Recognition
Hutchinson (R)	52 %	4 %	35 %	9 %	91 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	4 %	29 %	7 %	93 %

Pryor leads Hutchinson in the First, Second and Fourth Congressional Districts, while Hutchinson leads Pryor in the Third District:

	First District	Second District	Third District	Fourth District
Hutchinson (R)	36 %	37 %	58 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	57 %	57 %	36 %	54 %
Undecided	7 %	6 %	6 %	3 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in the support they receive from their respective parties. Hutchinson furthermore leads among Independents:

	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Hutchinson (R)	8 %	51 %	85 %
Pryor (D)	86 %	44 %	9 %
Undecided	6 %	6 %	5 %

Pryor leads among voters with a high school education or less while the two are virtually tied among voters with some college education. Hutchinson leads among college graduates:

	Some HS	HS Grad	Some College	College Graduate
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	34 %	48 %	52 %
Pryor (D)	63 %	58 %	47 %	44 %
Undecided	4 %	8 %	6 %	4 %

Pryor leads among voters 35 and older while Hutchinson leads among younger voters:

	18-35	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Hutchinson (R)	61 %	38 %	44 %	47 %	37 %
Pryor (D)	34 %	56 %	50 %	52 %	55 %
Undecided	5 %	6 %	7 %	1 %	8 %

Pryor leads among retirees and white collar workers, while Hutchinson leads among white collar voters:

	White Collar	Blue Collar	Retired
Hutchinson (R)	51 %	43 %	39 %
Pryor (D)	45 %	53 %	54 %
Undecided	4 %	4 %	7 %

Pryor leads among voters whose yearly incomes fall below $50,000 per year and Hutchinson leads among voters with incomes $75,000 or more. The two are virtually tied among the $50,000-$75,000 per year income group:

	<$20K	$20-30K	$30-40K	$40-50K	$50-75K	>$75K
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	41 %	44 %	47 %	48 %	56 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	52 %	50 %	51 %	49 %	39 %
Undecided	6 %	8 %	6 %	2 %	3 %	5 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied among whites while Pryor holds a substantial lead among African-Americans:

	White	African American
Hutchinson (R)	47 %	15 %
Pryor (D)	48 %	75 %
Undecided	5 %	9 %

Pryor leads among both men and women:

	Male	Female
Hutchinson (R)	44 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	51 %
Undecided	5 %	7 %

Methodology
Opinion Research Associates, Inc., of Little Rock, interviewed 500 randomly selected registered voters in Arkansas who said they were planning to vote in the November General Election.
Interviews were conducted by telephone during the evenings of October 23-25, and on Saturday October 26, 2002.
Interviews were conducted statewide and divided equally among the state's four congressional districts, with 125 interviews completed in each district.
The margin of error for a random sample of 500 registered voters = ±4.5 percentage points, at the 95% level of confidence. This means that the 95% of all random samples of this size will produce percentages that can be expected to vary, as a result of random variation, by no more than 4.5 percentage points from the true population parameters.
Percentages calculated on smaller subsamples will have a somewhat larger margin of error depending upon the size of the subsample. For example, the margin of error for each of the congressional districts is approximately ±9 percentage points.
Occasionally percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding error.

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[ambrose]

DUMP YOUR WIFE, LOSE AN ELECTION.

Hutchinson should have done what has worked for Clinton... have a sham marriage and screw the cute little honey on the side. Arkansans seemed to like that arrangement...

[BlackRazor]

Is this normal?

Yes. The margin of error is a function of sample size. The smaller the sample size, the larger the margin of error.

[CyberAnt]

Just remember what the LA Slimes did to Simon. They skewed their poll to show Davis ahead by 8 points. The RNC was so surprised, they investigated and discovered the LA Slimes had used 51% dems and 36% repubs for their poll, giving Davis the edge.

When the RNC redid the poll, they came out with only a 2% lead for Davis.

I have a feeling this is what's going on with all the "too close to call races". If the actual numbers were known, it wouldn't be so close. The dems are hoping the repubs will think "we're already behind, we're going to lose - why bother voting".

We must get people out to vote. I'm going to be precinct walking again tomorrow. Talk to everyone you know!

[luv2ndamend]

So the margin of error would be higher in each district because of the small sampling.

[rwfromkansas]

Folks.......The unfavorabe/favorable ratings are virtually the same despite Hutchinson's actions. How on Earth can he be down so much??? I am thinking voters may be rejecting him for another reason besides his moral lacking.

[conservative_2001]

Why couldn't Hutchinson keep his pants on?!?

Could you sound more stupid if you tried? They got divorced. That's it. If you have evidence of adultery, I'd sure like to see it, since nobody else does.

[jmstein7]

I agree. Don't put any stock in this poll, and do not be discouraged; that's what the dims and the media want. Get out the vote; get out the vote; get out the vote!!! Rigged polls like this should make you want to fight back HARDER on election day.

[rwfromkansas]

Unless you are a Democrat, of course. Then somehow your poll numbers go higher.

[conservative_2001]

DUMP YOUR WIFE, LOSE AN ELECTION.

Do you have evidence that he "dumped" her, as opposed to her dumping him or the two of them mutually divorcing? If not, STFU.

[comebacknewt]

I said it, not him.

If you think the man who was not honorable enough to stay with his wife was honorable enough not to sleep with his new one before the divorce, then I have to wonder who the stupid one is.

[conservative_2001]

Let's see what ZOGBy comes with in AR poll

I agree. This Arkansas News Bureau is constantly showing Hutchinson down by far more than anyone else believes, or other polling confirms.

[Deport Billary]

If we win Arkansas it would be a HUGE night for us. Not gonna happen though...

[HoundsTooth_BP]

DUMP YOUR WIFE, LOSE AN ELECTION

Only if you are a Republican. It is your personal business if you are a Dem.

[PhiKapMom]

I don't believe it either. Here in Oklahoma we had two TV stations (both NBC affiliates I believe) give similar poll results on Steve Largent. They said the RAT had pulled ahead.

Then the Sooner Survey poll came out which has been right in every one of the races they have done here in Oklahoma in past years and Largent was ahead by 10.

What I gleaned from that is not to trust who TV stations hire to do their polls. Believe it was the same group BTW.

[Alberta's Child]

Good point. There was a very interesting report on a radio station in New York tonight -- apparently Max Cleland is in big trouble in Georgia. The story I heard was that there are many black voters in Georgia who are so p!ssed off at how McKinney was defeated in her primary that they are going to stay home on Election Day.

[Leto]

I don't have an opinion about Hutchinson, I live in NJ and don't follow AR politics closely.

I know the Stephens famile are allies of the Clinton's. ANYONE who associates with the Clinton's is generally a liar and a cheat. That doesn't mean this poll isn't accurate. Hence the question about whether their polls are reliable.

In the Metro NY area the local polls (espically, Quinnipiac, Marist and Eagleton) are very unreliable. They had Whitman behind 11% and she won by 2%, Pataki behind Cuomo by 10%+ and Pataki won, Franks 18% behind Corzine, he lost by 2%. This makes me question the track record of any pollster.

[Lando Lincoln]

Why is it the electorate finds morality when it is a Republican who screws up??

[conservative_2001]

I said it, not him.

Actually, he also made these accusations. I just didn't respond to you at the time.

If you think the man who was not honorable enough to stay with his wife was honorable enough not to sleep with his new one before the divorce, then I have to wonder who the stupid one is.

Where is your evidence? How do you know that he left her, not her leaving him or that it was a mutual divorce. All indications are it was the latter. Show me the evidence.