If Maryland turnout mirrors 1998 and 2000, Ehrlich will lose

MSNBC 2000 Exit polls ^ | 11/1/02

[winin2000]

Pardon the vanity, folks, but the race I'm following the closest is the Maryland Governor's race (I don't live there, I just like Ehrlich and loathe Townsend!)

Here's the math. The latest poll, Mason Dixon, has an Ehrlich lead of 47-46%. The internals have the demographic breakdown:

White voters

Ehrlich, 58 percent
Townsend, 34 percent

African-American voters

Townsend, 86 percent
Ehrlich, 9 percent

Now assuming turnout is a repeat of 2000:

73% white
22% African American
5% Hispanic/Asian/Others

Let's further assume the 8% of undecided whites split evenly, with the two picking up 4 points apiece: Ehrlich carries whites 62-38%. If Townsend simply carries blacks at Gore's 2000 level, 92-8%, and Hispanic/Asian/Others break down 2 to 1 Democrat, as they generally have done in recent years, Townsend wins 51.81% of the vote.

The GOP's last near-miss in Maryland with Glendening/Sauerbrey in 1994, saw black turnout at 12%, with Sauerbrey's finishing support among whites around the 58% Ehrlich has locked up in this poll. A photo finish, with a little walking-around money carrying Glendening to victory.

So, what does all this mean? Ehrlich must do one of two things: bring his base vote out to levels that check the black vote at no more than 20%, or carry whites with a minimum of 64%! Doable, but outside my native South, quite a tall order!

Given the RATS uncannily effective turnout machines in black areas, and Gore's pathetic whipping-up of Floridaphobia again yesterday, I suddenly don't feel as euphoric about this one as I did a couple of days ago.

[Keith]

it's a off year election...the voting demographics are often different. It will be interesting to see what the final breakdown is.

[ForOurFuture]

[Russell Scott]

If my fellow Christians would get their heads out of the rapture clouds for a second, and go to the polls, and vote for the candidate that most closely reflects Biblical principles (hint: don't believe: in killing the innocent unborn, that there is anything "gay" about homosexuality, in stealing large portions of your pay check, that nature should be worshiped, voter fraud, terrorist can be negotiated with), the party of evil would get crushed in the election. Its sad we even have to talk about a close race, but the church too often hides under their pews, and doesn't even have the sense to vote. Mind boggling!

[winin2000]

ping

[Dems_R_Losers]

The polls are showing a significant break of undecideds for Ehrlich. I believe in 1994 the undecideds broke for Glendening due to his last-minute barrage of negative ads.

This race just "feels different" to me. Parris Glendening actually did have a pretty big group of real supporters in 1994, especially in his home district of PG County. Ellen Sauerbrey ran as a conservative and paid a price for it in the end. Ehrlich has run a far better campaign this time, a lot more Marylanders are truly turned off by KKT than turned on by her, and Glendening is really unpopular, unlike Schaefer in 1994. I know atmospherics do not put people in the voting booth, but it sure feels like a GOP victory to me. In 1994 I was really surprised at how close Sauerbrey came to winning. I'm not surprised that Ehrlich is close this time.

[aristeides]

I think you're wrong to assume Ehrlich will only get half of the undecided white votes. It's much more reasonable to suppose that he will get the same share that he gets of the decided white votes. 58 percent out of 92 percent is 63 percent of the decided votes. If the undecideds break the same way, the percentages stay the same, and Ehrlich ends up getting 63 percent of the white vote.

This all spells a very close election.

[TheLion]

The Saurbray/Glendening election was decided by the 5,000 or so illegal absentee ballots the Saurbrays people traced back to non-existent people. If I remember correctly, the total vote in the state was less than this amount. They couldn't get anywhere legally in the liberal state on Maryland.

[sinkspur]

If my fellow Christians would get their heads out of the rapture clouds for a second

Thank you.

Unless somebody's running on abortion, or prayer in schools, or vouchers, the Christian Right tends to stay home.

This is a naive and selfish attitude and, ultimately, self-deafeating.

[boomop1]

Fraud will do in Ehrlich I remember Saurbrey and the fraud that did her in and Bentley's sabotage made me ill.

[winin2000]

Point well taken. Hope you're right!

[KQQL]

WOW,,,,,aren't a postive person......

[winin2000]

C'mon, KQQL, if nothing else it made you think, didn't it?

[aristeides]

They couldn't get anywhere legally in the liberal state on Maryland.

In '94, the U.S. Attorney for MD was a Clinton appointee, Lynne Battaglia, I believe. The U.S. Attorney for MD now is the Bush appointee DiBiagio, who has already been squabbling with Dems like Doug Gansler. He's also shaken up the FBI office in Baltimore.

New cop on the beat.

[Torie]

Subsets don't always support the bottom line number because they have a higher margin of error. I really can't see why the black turnout won't be down relatively speaking vis a vis 2000.

[KQQL]

I doubt the African-American Turnout will match 2000 levels...

P>S remember GOP has LT.GOV running who is an African American...........
So what has KKT done lately for the African Americans ?

[jackbill]

Ehrlich is going to win this one. Black turnout is going to be down big-time, because the bitch picked a rich, white Republican as her running mate.

I don't know if you've noticed, when KKT brings the Clintons and Gore into the state, they still stay in PG and Montgomery counties, or Baltimore City. Everywhere else, Ehrlich wins. KKT is still trying to rally her "base" - read blacks. And, it ain't working.

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

I'm a bit more optimistic. The latest Sun poll has it at 48-44, giving Ehrlich a lead just outside the MOE.

A serious development of the last few days is the invalidation of 10,000 Republican absentee ballot applications. I hope the Ehrlich people are working feverishly to resolve this problem.

[TheLion]

"New cop on the beat"....that's some great news! Without fraud, we might actually have a chance.

[DarthRaven]

Well, let's pray to whatever God or Gods we pray to that Erlich wins. I can't bear the thought that the "Crime Czar, Kathleen the not-so-Great, Spawn of the Kennedy Klan" lies/steals/cheats her way to becoming the next "Great Leader" (dictator) of the "Democratic Socialist" State of Maryland. It makes a freedom loving Marylander want to move to PA, VA, or WVA!