Skip to comments.
Thursday, 10/10, Market WrapUp (Recession Part 2?)
Financial Sense Online ^
| 10/10/2002
| Scott Middleton
Posted on 10/10/2002 3:35:13 PM PDT by rohry
|
Weekday Commentary from Scott Middleton
 Home
Market WrapUp for the Week
Monday l Tuesday l Wednesday l Thursday l Friday  The Week in Graphs  Storm Watch  Geopolitical News  Energy Resource Page  Precious Metals  Raw Materials
Thursday, October 10, 2002 Bear Market’s Rally
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 247.68 points, or 3.4% to 7,533, the Nasdaq Composite soared 49 points, or 4.4% to 1,163.44, and the Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 42 points, or 5.24% to 849. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index spiked 27.18 points, or 3.5% higher while the Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks ascended 2.79%. All nice rebounds considering where the recent sell offs have taken us. One thing I noticed that was different about today’s rally in comparison to those of past days was that the various news outlets stayed away from the “it’s the bottom” trumpet this time around. While I’m sure some made their trumpets sing the same old tune, many did not. In other news today, S&P’s Investment Policy Committee pointed out that October is labeled the “bottoming month” for good reason; since 1946, eight of the 24 market declines of 10% or more for the S&P 500 ended in October. Does that mean we’ll see the bottom before this month is over? I wouldn’t bet on it, but maybe just a short-term bottom will be reached. Another steep leg down in this market is in the cards. Could it start tomorrow? On tap tomorrow will be some much anticipated economic releases as the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and the Consumer Sentiment figures will be released. Expectations of a weakening consumer could be either verified or nullified with tomorrow’s data. The Consumer Sentiment indicator as conducted by the University of Michigan is expected to fall to 85.5 from a level of 86.1 in September. Confirmation of these figures will come from the measure of retail sales, which are expected to decrease 0.9% in September, reversing last month’s 0.8% gain. Auto sales were weak in September and will certainly dampen total sales. Llisten carefully to the way the news is reported as many outlets will report the figures with Auto Sales stripped out. Volume was heavier-than-usual at 2.03 billion on the NYSE and 1.81 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Market breadth was marginally positive, with winners beating losers by 20 to 12 on the NYSE and by 21 to 13 on the Nasdaq. Overseas Markets
European stocks gained, led by Royal Philips Electronics NV and Siemens AG, as U.S. earnings reports raised expectations for higher profit at companies that do business in the world's largest economy. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 2.8% to 2341.03, snapping a five-session, 7.4% losing streak. All eight major European Markets were up during today’s trading. Asian stocks fell, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average on course for its worst week in almost two years. Exporters such as Fanuc Ltd. and Samsung Electronics Co. slid after a U.S. share tumble increased concern demand will wane. The Nikkei lost 1.2% to 8439.62. The average lost 6.5% so far this week, its biggest decline since the five days ended Dec. 22, 2000. Bond Market
Government bonds finished with substantial losses as equities firmed. The 10-year Treasury note tumbled 23/32 to yield 3.655% while the 30-year government bond slid 31/32 to yield 4.715%. © Copyright Scott Middleton, October 10, 2002 |
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS: economics; investing; stockmarket
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-45 next last
Scott's back...
1
posted on
10/10/2002 3:35:13 PM PDT
by
rohry
To: sinkspur; bvw; Tauzero; robnoel; kezekiel; ChadGore; Harley - Mississippi; Dukie; Matchett-PI; ...
Market WrapUp is delivered...
3
posted on
10/10/2002 3:37:08 PM PDT
by
rohry
To: rohry
Looks like the market is up, right? Our economic doom has been delayed. Plus, we are closer to a resolution of the Iraq mess. One way or the other.
To: rohry
I think Bush and company jumped the gun (pun intended) on the Iraq issue. Now that it is off the table the press will go after the economy and drive the market under just before the election. Metals are on a hiatus???
To: RightWhale
A one day up market does not a bull make. Remember that some of the strongest up moves are during a bear market. They happen because legions of short players all rush to cover their positions at once.
I'm afraid this bear has a while yet to run its course.
To: tubebender
"I think Bush and company jumped the gun (pun intended) on the Iraq issue."
No, the Iraq issue will be in the forefront for several weeks. Debate in the UN, stories about troop build-up and (the Ace in the hole) stories dribbling out from our "intelligence community" about links between Iraq and terrorism...
"Metals are on a hiatus???"
I am in it for the long run. Precious metals are my back-up position (insurance). If it skyrockets then I sell. If not, who cares, I'll leave it to my kids...
7
posted on
10/10/2002 4:06:25 PM PDT
by
rohry
To: tubebender
Agreed.
To: Billy_bob_bob
Agreed.
To: tubebender
I think Bush and company jumped the gun (pun intended) on the Iraq issue. That's one way of looking at it. On the flipside, maybe they got what they needed on Iraq with just enough time left over to hammer away at their economic agenda, not just to show that they "feel our pain", but also to advance further market based stimuli, such as more tax cuts, raised caps on IRAs, and making permanent the existing tax cuts.
Further, it will highlight the fact that the Democrats don't have a positive agenda on foreign policy OR the economy. They made all this noise about Iraq, to what end? Nothing. All they did was delay the process. And on the economy, what is on their agenda, other than raising taxes?
What I would love more than anything would be for the President to address the American people in prime time, from the Oval Office, ala Ronald Reagan. He would outline his economic agenda, he would ask Americans to call their Congressmen and Senators and urge them to support the agenda. He would remind Americans that we have been through tough times before, but that we will come out stronger than ever. And then he should go and pray.
That's my free advice to the leader of the free world.
10
posted on
10/10/2002 4:10:33 PM PDT
by
Huck
To: rohry
No, the Iraq issue will be in the forefront for several weeks.I guess you could be right with 60s crowd coming out of the gutters to tell us how to run our country...
To: Huck
will highlight the fact that the Democrats don't have a positive agenda on foreign policyI am not looking at this as R's vs D's. The opposition is really the press in my experience.
To: tubebender
I guess you could be right with 60s crowd coming out of the gutters to tell us how to run our country...When you refer to the "60s crowd" do you mean (1) people who protested the VietNam War in the 1960's and are just itching to get out the sandals and signs and sing folk songs or (2) people who are in their 60s?
I don't know many people in either group who are in gutters. But I know plenty who are opinionated and wouldn't might some nostalgia!
<^..^>
Peace and Love,
Grania
13
posted on
10/10/2002 4:31:23 PM PDT
by
grania
To: Huck
He would remind Americans that we have been through tough times before, but that we will come out stronger than ever. And then he should go and pray. It would be a waste of time at that this point. People are still refinancing their homes and taking 0% auto loans.
My credit union is offering refinancing on the zero interest car loans. There are people that can't meet the conditions of the loans from the car companies, but thought they could when they got the loan..
14
posted on
10/10/2002 4:50:19 PM PDT
by
EVO X
To: grania
When you refer to the "60s crowd" do you mean (1) people who protested the VietNam War in the 1960'I guess I should have said the socialist mentality of the 1960's. It's like watching the flying termites coming out just before a storm...
To: rohry
I'm a bit disappointed that Scott didn't detail the obvious points of intervention in today's trading by the Rise Protection Team...
To: Interesting Times
"I'm a bit disappointed that Scott didn't detail the obvious points of intervention in today's trading by the Rise Protection Team..."
What is the "Rise Protection Team?"
Scott misses alot of things that Jim picks up on (not that I could do better)...
17
posted on
10/10/2002 5:28:30 PM PDT
by
rohry
To: Interesting Times
Rise Protection Team LOL.
The cabal that protects the interests of the nation's short sellers.
RPT, why have you foresaken me?
To: Black Birch
Please expand a bit on the refinancing.
To: rohry; Wyatt's Torch; arete; meyer; DarkWaters; STONEWALLS; TigerLikesRooster; Ken H; MrNatural; ...
JPM's derivatives Mar 1999 thru Jun 2002.
http://www.occ.ustreas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq199.pdf
(In Millions of Dollars)
March 1999
Company
Assets---Derivatives
CHASE MANHATTAN CORP NY--- $361,258 $10,547,024
JP MORGAN & CO NY
$269,070 $8,434,865
CITIGROUP INC NY
$690,649 $7,472,675
http://www.occ.ustreas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq202.pdf
June 2002
Company
Assets---Derivatives
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NY----- 581,407 25,910,300
BANK OF AMERICA NA NC------ 562,116 10,248,597
CITIBANK NATIONAL ASSN NY-- 487,074 7,397,644
items of interest:
(1) JP & Chase were worth 630,000 million in March of 1999 as separate companies. Now that they are merged, they are worth $581,407 million three years later.
(2) JP & Chase had $19,000,000 million ($19 trillion) in derivatives in March of 1999 as separate companies. Together, the current notional value is $26,000,000 million ($26 trillion).
(3) The two companies have current assets worth $49 billion less now that they are combined into one. But yet, their total derivatives package is approx $7 trillion more.
(4) Bank of American overtook Citigroup as #2 derivative problem with $10,248,597 million ($10 Trillion). In 1999 they had a mere $4,279,830 million ($4 trillion) in derivatives.
(5) Citigroup's derivatives book has actually gone down by $75,000 million ($75 Billion) between March of 1999 to June of 2002.
(6) Citi assets are listed as being $200,000 million less in June 2002 compared with march 1999.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-45 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson
0.58