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Posted on 09/12/2002 10:59:25 PM PDT by CyberCowboy777
ZARELLI MUST DO MORE THAN JUST WIN
Wednesday, September 11, 2002
By JEFFREY MIZE, Columbian staff writer For a candidate unopposed for the GOP's congressional nomination, state Sen. Joe Zarelli has everything to lose in next week's primary.
Zarelli, R-Ridgefield, is assured of advancing to the Nov. 5 election and going head to head with U.S. Rep. Brian Baird, D-Vancouver.
Zarelli, however, must make a strong showing in Tuesday's "beauty contest" primary to attract campaign contributions and media attention needed to mount a legitimate challenge.
"The reality is that everyone wants to see a number," he said. "If I do well in the primary, everyone will want to be my friend."
The reverse also is true. If Zarelli doesn't show he is within striking distance, don't expect Republican power brokers in Washington, D.C., to send a truckload of money west.
Zarelli, 40, needs all the help he can get as he tries to unseat Baird, a two-term incumbent who is close to becoming entrenched in the 3rd Congressional District.
Next week's primary should offer the first evidence of whether Zarelli is a contender or pretender. Based on the last three congressional primary elections, Zarelli needs to win at least 45 percent of the vote to be considered a viable candidate for the general election. Without that minimum level of support, he faces the real possibility his campaign will wither.
Zarelli said he believes there was a 3 percent to 4 percent spread separating the candidates when he entered the race in May. He is looking to snag at least 47 percent of the vote next week.
Chris Woodfin, Zarelli's campaign manager, said his campaign has not done any polling, nor has it seen results from polls commissioned by others.
"We have known from the start that we were going to have to have a good showing in the primary," Woodfin said.
Brent Bader, a GOP consultant not affiliated with the Zarelli campaign, disputed any suggestion that money flowing to Zarelli after the primary would be too late.
"Not in a year like this," he said. "Most folks haven't even begun to think about politics. They're thinking about their 401(k)s and Iraq."
Bader, however, conceded that Zarelli faces a difficult battle with Baird, a well-known, well-financed incumbent.
"This is the kind of year that would tend to favor incumbents," he said. "Voter attitudes are showing us that there really isn't a 'throw the bums' out attitude.
"The conventional wisdom is our congressional delegation will be unchanged at the end of this election cycle."
Big cash advantage
Baird, 46, has whipped his last two Republican opponents, state Sen. Don Benton, R-Pleasant Valley, and building industry analyst Trent Matson, carrying every part of the district except for Lewis County, a Republican stronghold.
Baird is following the classic incumbent's strategy, doing his best to look and act congressional, largely ignoring his opponent and preserving his formidable cash reserves for later in the campaign.
As of Aug. 28, Baird had $682,800 in his campaign account, compared with Zarelli's $14,600. It's a staggering advantage, one Baird's strategists could unleash any time.
So far, Baird said he hasn't dipped into his sizeable campaign chest to pay for mailers or advertisements.
Baird said that doesn't mean he believes his job is safe for another two years.
"Not at all," he said. "It means I'm saving my resources. … One has to be always aware that a large independent expenditure could come in at the end of the race."
In 1998, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent a bundle in the 3rd Congressional District, but a cascade of negative television ads didn't prevent Baird from cruising to an easy victory over Benton. Since then, the national GOP has spent its dollars elsewhere.
Zarelli, however, maintains he can succeed where other Republicans have failed.
Benton wasn't well-known in Cowlitz County and other parts of the congressional district in 1998, Zarelli said. Plus Benton had to defeat three other Republicans in the primary before he could focus on Baird.
"The outcome of that primary destroyed the opportunity to win a general election or to make it very close," Zarelli said.
Matson, a political newcomer, had a different problem in 2000.
"I think it's very easy to understand why Matson had trouble," Zarelli said. "No one knew who he was."
Media coverage
Zarelli has won three elections in the 18th Legislative District, which, until recently, included sections of Clark, Cowlitz and Lewis counties.
Zarelli might have better name recognition than Matson, but his current campaign hasn't generated much press attention. So far, one of the few stories to receive significant play is Baird's comment that he could see smoke rising after a hijacked jetliner slammed into the Pentagon last September.
Kevin Carns, Zarelli's political director, questioned if Baird could even see the Pentagon from his Capitol Hill office. Baird responded with a press release demanding an apology and retraction for "such a blatantly provocative and misleading statement about a matter as so tragic as Sept. 11th."
The economy
Zarelli has downplayed the dispute over what his aide and Baird did or did not say.
"The real question down here is the economy and jobs," he said. "On his watch, unemployment has continued to go up every year."
Zarelli described Baird is a "Seattle-like liberal" effective in public relations but whose voting record reveals the Sierra Club's agenda. A "2002 Business Voter Guide" distributed by Zarelli's campaign chides Baird for votes on ergonomic standards, tax relief and other issues.
Zarelli said Baird isn't responsible for Southwest Washington's economic problems, but he hasn't provided leadership to help the region recover. Zarelli pointed to his own role this year in securing $17.7 million in state funds needed for Columbia River channel deepening.
"It's one thing to be working," he said. "But it's another thing to stand behind your work."
Baird defended his efforts to help business in Southwest Washington, such as testifying before the U.S. International Trade Commission that subsequently placed a 6.3 percent tariff on Chilean raspberries.
"The raspberry growers might be all out of business right now if it weren't for my efforts," he said.
Baird said the economic plan Zarelli released last week is "embarrassingly lacking in substance." He repeatedly mentioned the plan's brief section on education and training that includes a vague promise to "provide retraining dollars to communities with businesses committed to long-term investments."
"Anyone who thinks Joe Zarelli has ideas that are sufficient and real solutions for the economy should read his platform on education," Baird said. "They will see there is nothing there."
Negative campaigning
Baird also blasted Zarelli for running a negative campaign "filled with deliberate falsehoods, deliberate deceptions."
Zarelli supporters have passed out anti-Baird literature when he's spoken before Rotary Clubs or appeared in community parades, he said.
Baird said one flier includes a photograph of him taken in 1983. (Woodfin, Zarelli's campaign manager, said he wasn't aware of any such flier.)
Baird warned that Zarelli should be careful about bringing up issues from the past.
Zarelli cannot pretend "like he doesn't have a past himself," he said. "And there's that phrase about people who live in glass houses he might do well to recall."
Baird refused to say what might be revealed about Zarelli's past.
"It's not a threat," he said. "I'll just say it this way. To my knowledge, being in the Sierra Club was never a felony."
That last comment is a clear reference to Zarelli's drug use some 20 years ago.
The Daily News of Longview reported in June 1996 that a small amount of cocaine was found on Zarelli after he was arrested in 1983 in Edmonds. Zarelli denied the report, but he admitted he had used drugs as a teen-ager and young adult.
Woodfin said he isn't surprised to see Baird bringing up Zarelli's past.
"If he chooses to go negative, that will be his choice," he said. "All we have done is bring up voting records. I don't see how you can describe voting records as being negative."
Baird and his handlers won't make any decisions until after Tuesday's primary. If Zarelli comes anywhere close to Baird, look for the congressman to quickly dip into his campaign account.
Regardless, it will be Zarelli's responsibility to take the campaign to Baird, not the other way around.
"Voters need a reason to fire the incumbent," GOP strategist Bader said. "The campaign needs to be about Brian Baird and why he is wrong for the district.
"You don't get there by being polite. You have to give people a reason to vote against Brian Baird that matters to them."
Jeffrey Mize covers the 3rd Congressional District for The Columbian. Reach him at 360-759-8006, or by e-mail at jeff.mize@columbian.com.
BRIAN BAIRD'S VOTE TALLIES
1996 49.82% (3rd Congressional District)
1998 54.66% (3rd Congressional District)
2000 56.40% (3rd Congressional District)
JOSEPH ZARELLI'S VOTE TALLIES
1994 48.49% (House, 18th Legislative District)
1995 53.27% (Senate, 18th Legislative District)
1996 53.80% (Senate, 18th Legislative District)
2000 58.56% (Senate, 18th Legislative District)
This is all known Washington Freepers
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Check out the other Zarelli thread: Here
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Legislative Voting Record 2002
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Legislative Voting Record 2002
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