Davis, Simon heartily disliked-Voter disenchantment has soared to unprecedented level, poll says

SF Chronicle ^ | 9-5-02 | Carla Marinucci

[Oldeconomybuyer]

The candidates of both major parties in the California governor's race are growing even more unpopular with voters as the campaign progresses, a new survey has found.

The Field Poll released today found that half the likely voters are holding their noses for both Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and his Republican challenger, Bill Simon.

[Coop]

Chicken, meet egg. :-)

Whether it was the long-term exposure to news about Chang or simply Torricelli's crooked reputation (or perhaps a combination thereof) that caused his numbers to dive matters little, IMHO. His re-elect numbers were weak well before he was admonished. Yet I was still hearing from "everyone" how Torch couldn't be beaten. The official reprimand simply sped Forrester into a lead more quickly than I would have anticipated. (I figured the Inouye and the Dems would stall that until after the election.)

[frmrda]

Inouye was too cute by half on that one. He didn't exonerate him, but he didn't slam him either. That allowed Torch to hang himself with his non-confession confession.

I recently saw Torch's latest attack ad against Forrester. He's painting him as an "extremist" on gun laws, prescription drugs, etc. One scene in it has Torch talking to police while the narrator talks about gun laws. Whoever made that commercial should be fired. Given Torch's problems, what do you think most voters think of when they see Torch talking to cops.

I'm actually starting to think "Bobbie Walnuts" might lose, but don't underestimate him, he's a vicious campaigner and will pull no punches. This one's going to be close, real close. I really think if Forrester wins it may have something to do with the "conservitazitation" of North Jersey voters after 9/11

[Coop]

President Bush is scheduled to visit NJ to raise funds for Forrester later this month. I wouldn't be surprised to see Giuliani later on. The GOP realizes this is a golden opportunity.

I agree about Torricelli's campaigning style/experience, not to mention he's still got a lot of money (though he blew a bunch - $1-2 mil - trying to apologize to NJ). But to me his most powerful issue was Forrester's connection to the pharmaceutical industry. I saw today that some of Torricelli's biggest donors were those same companies he's now trying to savage via Forrester. (or vice versa?) IMHO Torch's best line of attack is now seriously weakened.

Just saw on the Political Oddsmaker, Torch has been downgraded yet again. He had a tough August.

Sen. Bob Torricelli (D) and Douglas Forrester (R), even (Torricelli's chances downgraded from 50.4% on 8/31/02, from 51.7% chance on 8/26/02; on 8/13/02 from 52.9% and on 8/4/02 from 55.6%)

[eureka!]

"And it's a Field Poll at that"

Yep. Not bad considering. I do hope Simon has a huge GOTV machine underway as you know Davis does--it's his only chance...

[thescourged1]

Keep in mind though, if the voters are truly this apathetic/disgruntled, the usual Demo voter-fraud will be highly effective.

[heleny]

guy who will pull the RINO's and other "moderates" in large numbers

What good are those if one can attract neither liberals nor conservatives? Riordan held extreme views on abortion, homosexuality, gun confiscation, taxation, socialism, etc. which would alienate conservatives and hurt the rest of the Republican candidates for other offices. Liberals will still line up behind Davis.

Riordan would have blown Davis out of the water

That may be false. He could not even get 1/3 of the Republican plus most of the decline-to-state voters in March, and at the time polled about the same against Davis as Simon vs. Davis. Riordan ruined his own campaign months ago, would not have been able to run a competent campaign to recover, and would be unable to differentiate himself from Davis.

Why don't you support Simon, the real candidate in the upcoming election? The point of having a primary election is to consolidate support behind one candidate from each party. Simon won by a landslide, and Riordan graciously declared his support for Simon.

Simon has the right views on most issues, including education, taxes and the economy, and quality of life, and basic rights. Can you agree with at least one of those issues?

[Bernard Marx]

Yes, I think Simon will keep it close, which makes me even more angry because Riordan would have blown Davis out of the water. The fact that a conservative like Simon can keep it close in CA is proof of how weak Davis is.

Your analysis may be right. But as a California conservative I had this problem with Riordan: I couldn't find any significant differences between him and a liberal Democrat. What advantage is gained by electing a liberal Rat who calls himself a 'Republican?'

Riordan could probably have won because (like all RINOs) he's run the cynical numbers: Davis is unpopular among liberals and Riordan could have played into that discontent because he's liberal himself. He would also have run well with the Great Mushy Middle (mostly liberal at heart even though they may call themselves Republicans) as well as the gays, the unions, etc. As Mayor of L.A., Riordan never met a liberal cause he didn't like, support, and whose parade he didn't march in.

Simon on the other hand is green, naive, not a natural politician. He lacks the cynicism of and contempt for average voters -- qualities that make liberals and RINOs such successful politicians.

Liberals don't think of voters as real people but as issues to be pandered to. It's easier to promise to give away triple-decker ice cream cones than to caution people that eating them may lead to obesity, diabetes, etc. That's the classic liberal vs. conservative dilemma, not just in CA but nationwide. The liberals dish out their triple-deckers in however many multicultural colors and flavors it takes to win. Conservatives, being realists, merely sputter and tut-tut and say maybe that's not such a good idea.

I will continue to support Simon financially and otherwise. But I do so with the knowledge that Davis's never-ending filth machine coupled with corrupt media and corrupt greedy voters will probably grind him into the dirt. When that depresses me I ask whether Riordan would have been a better choice. That depresses me too.

The only silver lining I can find in any of this is that maybe, somehow, after a second disastrous Davis term the idiot voters may figure out cause-effect. But I doubt it. If they can't figure it out after his first term they probably never will. And we'll all be speaking Spanish by that time anyhow.

[section9]

I hope you are right.

If Simon can get in gear, and get his supporters energized, then we have a chance.

Our saving grace right now is that there is absolutely no enthusiasm in Davis' base vote for his candidacy. Indeed, talk of Davis as the 2004 presidential nominee is greeted with derision in national Democratic circles. It is possible, at long last, for Simon to get the base happy and start working on enough swing voters to surpass Davis, sometime in October, and create a sense of momentum for his candidacy.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Coop]

Our saving grace right now is that there is absolutely no enthusiasm in Davis' base vote for his candidacy. Indeed, talk of Davis as the 2004 presidential nominee is greeted with derision in national Democratic circles. It is possible, at long last, for Simon to get the base happy and start working on enough swing voters to surpass Davis, sometime in October, and create a sense of momentum for his candidacy.

Exactly. There has never been enthusiasm for Davis, and there never will be. Simon was pummeled for months via attack ads because he didn't have the funds to fight back, and of course he's made some mistakes. So the media and the Davis campaign keep playing it up like Simon has no chance. Yet an objective look at the numbers makes one realize that Davis is the one who's really hurting, not Simon.

I'm not guaranteeing Simon will win - not at all. But he's got a real chance via advertising and maybe even another Presidential visit (pure speculation here) to raise his profile and make his supporters really believe he can win. You know enough about politics to know about perception and momentum. Two examples: Bill McBride and John McCain.

I just keep hoping that more here on FR will look at the real numbers and the big picture, instead of arguing over tax returns, mysterious questionnaires, etc. There is no question that Simon's campaign has struggled. My answer to that is "So what?" I'd rather have a decent guy and his staff learn on the job than an incompetent crook get re-elected.

[Saundra Duffy]

Here's what "Gay" Davis is up to:

SPECIAL LEGISLATIVE ALERT
Davis to sign three abortion bills tomorrow in San Francisco.

SB 1301 - Abortion made easier
AB 2194 - Forced abortion training for gynecologists/obstetricians
AB 1860 - Emergency contraception

The first message below is from our friends at Women's Resource Network, following that is an alert sent by CARAL (California Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League), a pro-abortion organization.

FROM WOMEN'S RESOURCE NETWORK:
Dear Friends of Women's Resource Network, California,
CARAL sent this out today. It saddens my heart that California has come to a level of complete disrespect for women by not only passing these bills, but now on the verge of Davis signing them into law and the general public seems to support this man! Please call, write or fax Gov. Davis's office and tell him we respect Life and the women of California and to please veto SB 1301 which lowers the standard of medical care for women making it easier for abortion providers to turn a profit at the expense of women and their health.

If you live in the San Francisco area please attend this bill signing ceremony with signs that say "Women Deserve Better than Abortion" and show your support For-Women, not abortion providers and so called pro-"Choice" abortion pushers.

Dana Serrano
Executive Director
Women's Resource Network, California

By the way, Simon received an "A" rating from the NRA and Simon is pro life! DUMP DAVIS!! GO, SIMON!!!

[NEWwoman]

The poll shows Davis favored by 38 percent and Simon by 31 percent,

A few weeks ago, wasn't Davis leading by 11 points, then it was 9 points. Now, it's 7 points.

Good trend.

[heleny]

Good trend.

I agree. I heard the Giuliani radio ad for Simon on the radio finally (on KOGO in San Diego). It sounded great! It was great timing, too, just before the Rush show began, and the Simon ads will help his poll numbers.

[NEWwoman]

This may sound morbid, but I hope all the attention on 9-11 plus Giuliani's endorsement will put Simon over the top.
I'm so pessimestic about Califonia's future if Davis gets any four years to rape it and run it into the ground.

[Coop]

and the Simon ads will help his poll numbers.

...and positive polling numbers will help Simon's fundraising, media coverage and - most importantly - help alter the flawed perception that he can't beat Davis.

[onedoug]

...and the former Los Angeles mayor even finished ahead of Simon as a write-in candidate in a hypothetical three-way race....

If he really had any character, Simon would lead this write-in campaign for Riordan.
I think this is my vote.