New Computer Model Promises Detailed Picture of Worldwide Climate

SpaceDaily ^ | 07/04/2002 | David Hosansky

[cogitator]

New Computer Model Promises Detailed Picture of Worldwide Climate

Capping two years of research, a nationwide group of over 100 scientists has created a powerful new computer model of the Earth's climate. The model surpasses previous efforts by successfully incorporating the impact of such variables as ocean currents and changes in land-surface temperatures.

Researchers will use the model, called CCSM-2 (Community Climate System Model, version 2) to probe how our climate works and to experiment with "what-if" scenarios to predict what our climate may be like in the future. The model will also look at past climate.

For example, researchers plan to perform an extended, multicentury simulation of past shifts in the climate's equilibrium.

The model's increased capabilities will permit new types of studies, such as the "Flying Leap Experiment," which will track fossil fuel carbon emissions as they are dissolved in the oceans and subsequently released back into the atmosphere.

Jeffrey Kiehl, a key leader in development of the model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, expects the CCSM-2 to play an integral role in the next climate assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the international organization that issues periodic assessments of global climate change.

Based at NCAR, the model is funded by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.

"The model is better [than its earlier version] at simulating phenomena with worldwide climate implications, such as El Nino," says Kiehl. "The new version has higher spatial resolution in both oceans and sea ice, and the atmosphere is represented by a larger number of vertical layers."

To achieve the extensive modifications in the latest version, which was released last month, scientists applied the model to specific problems. For example, they weighed the climatic impacts of past volcanic eruptions, fluctuations in ocean salinity, changes in land vegetation, and the thickness of sea ice. The resulting model has far more data than the earlier version, allowing scientists to make more detailed climate projections.

"A coordinated community activity on this scale is rare in the climate sciences," says Kiehl. The contributors worked in groups on land, ocean, sea ice, and other components of the model toward the single, common goal of capturing the Earth's climate system. It was truly a collaborative effort."

Since 1983, NCAR scientists have been refining global climate models that are freely available to researchers worldwide. CCSM-2, which supercedes the first CCSM created in 1998, will be used to produce improved simulations of average climate and climate variability.

Richard Anthes, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (which manages and operates NCAR) says: "The CCSM effort is a great example of the trend towards increasing collaboration among research institutions on complex and important scientific problems."

[cogitator]

OK, so the model is great. When do we see RESULTS?

[dirtboy]

The model's increased capabilities will permit new types of studies, such as the "Flying Leap Experiment," which will track fossil fuel carbon emissions as they are dissolved in the oceans and subsequently released back into the atmosphere.

I can't think of a better name for a global warming model...

[robertpaulsen]

But will it rain this weekend?

[Hunble]

I love these computer models. Each year, as they improve the models, the predicted temperature goes down.

Just out of fun back in 1998, I plotted the predicted 50 year temperature increases, as published or the previous 10 years.

Fitting a curve to those computer model results from the previous 10 years, that curve anticipated that they would eventually return a result of zero temperature gain by the year 2003.

Such a simple analysis, but it has been remarkably accurate.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The should call it the "Global Warming Demogoguery Model," since that's the only thing they intend to use it for.

[Let's Roll]

Ok, land mass, sea, ice - but will it include solar activity? If not, just another expensive paper weight.

[monkey]

CCSM-2 (Community Climate System Model, version 2)

"Previous models of the M-5 were not entirely successful."

[pabianice]

Wait, wait, don't tell me! The model will show that the Earth is heading towards a horrible death by over-heating,
and the causes are Capitalism, conservative politics, and Israel...

[dtel]

This sounds more like, we were lying last time but we're really, really telling the truth this time.
Whatever, wake me when it's over, tell me whether I need a parka or a bathing suit.

[Mr. K]

And as a programme I can tell you, if they want there to be global warming there will be global warming in this 'model'.

[balrog666]

Last model had no ocean currents: terrible.
Last model had no volcano models: terrible.
Last model had no surface temperature: terrible.
Do they even model the solar fluctuations?

No wonder they call the newer model better. Still, why don't they program in the data from the 70's and 80's and see what is "predicted" for the 90's, then tell us if it's better than the last model.

[Cacique]

More junk science from the usual suspects. Garbage in, garbage out. Isn't that the old rule? Have they taken into account things like solar flares? The flapping wings of a butterfly in Mexico? The changing temperature of subteranean pacific ocean currents? The CO2 output of flying pigs?

Give me a break. I suppose it will also predict when the next Martian invasion is going to happen. How about the next volcano erruption or asteroid hit? That's what I really want to know.

[Cacique]

Musta been reading my mind. beat me to it by 60 seconds, I'll type faster next time.

[The_Victor]

You've hit upon a standard engineering practice (assuming you are not an engineer, already aware of the practice) of model convergence, usually applied to finite elements stress analysis. You run the structural model at increasing complexities, and observe the change in the stresses. When the stresses cease changing, you know the model has converged.

Amazing that it's converging at no temperature change. (or perhaps not amazing)

[RightWhale]

The new model tracks how often you change your dog's brand of dogfood, which can cause increased canine flatulence. The data is available from your scanned purchases at the supermarket, unless you feed the dog fish you catch yourself provided you qualify for subsistence fishing [the new federally-funded model has the power to calculate vastly more detailed spurious results.] Animal emissions are a known factor in global climate.

[ReadMyMind]

Are you perceiving no temperature increases where you live? I live in Minnesota. I have for about 20 years. I don't know crap about climate modeling. I don't really care about it. I live in the city. I have a small garden. I grow vegetables, some herbs, and some berries.

When I moved to Minnesota, the city was solidly zone 3 gardening. Any perenials that were zone 4 were likely to die over the winter, any that were zone 5 were sure to die. In the last 10 years, I've been planting more and more zone 4 plants. They've been routinely surviving. This year I'm leaving the rosemary (a zone 5 plant) in the ground over the winter. It would have survived last winter and it's only a $2 bet.

This is over a short time, 20 years, and only my own perceptions and observations, but it sure seems my small part of the globe is warmer. And, being in Minnesota, that's not so bad. If the rosemary makes it through 3 winters, maybe I can plant a peach tree.

So, if capitalism or cars or whatever promote global warming, keep it up for a while yet.

[RJL]

Wait, wait, don't tell me! The model will show that the Earth is heading towards a horrible death by over-heating, and the causes are Capitalism, conservative politics, and Israel...

Ding..Ding..Ding..We have a winner!

I'll bet you didn't need "two years of research, a nationwide group of over 100 scientists" to determine this certain outcome.

[ClearCase_guy]

New Computer Model Promises Detailed Picture of Worldwide Climate

Yes, I'm sure it promises to show evidence of Global Warming. It's probably spelled out in the proposal: "This model shall show evidence of global warming. Failure to do so will result in financial penalty."

[The_Victor]

I live in Houston. It's always damned hot here, so who cares about a fraction of a degree more (or less for that matter).

[Always Right]

OK, so the model is great. When do we see RESULTS?

As soon as they figure out how to rig it to get the desired results