Posted on 06/02/2002 6:56:14 AM PDT by jern
GOP smells victory in 2002
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
NEW BERN - The Guilford County Republican Party, anticipating a strong showing at the polls in November, already has reserved a room for an election-night victory celebration at the Koury Convention Center.
"I'm excited," said Marcus Kindley, a 47-year old stockbroker who is also the Guilford County GOP chairman. "I can't wait."
The 500 Republicans gathered here for their annual two-day convention were in a giddy mood Saturday, assured that the political stars are in alignment for a robust Republican year.
The latest omen was the decision by Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins of Smithfield on Friday to draw legislative district lines more friendly to GOP candidates.
But the Republicans already believed that events were going their way. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, the former two-time Cabinet secretary and former American Red Cross president, has a commanding lead in the polls in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. President Bush, while not on the ballot, remains extremely popular in North Carolina.
And Republicans believe they have some powerful issues with which to bludgeon Democrats in the fall -- from tax hikes to the budget crisis.
"The low-hanging fruit is heavy on the limbs," said J. B. Coram, a 55-year-old cattle rancher from Scaly Mountain, suggesting that the Democrats were ripe for easy pickings.
In fact, the scenario in June is viewed so favorably by Republicans they are beginning to compare this year with the Republican landslide in 1994, when the Republicans captured the state House and nearly secured the state Senate, and also picked up several congressional seats.
"I look for it to be better than 1994," said state Rep. Frank Mitchell, a chicken farmer from Iredell County.
The political climate did not look nearly as rosy for Republicans last summer. The country was headed into a recession, and historically the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections. The impending retirement of Helms, the founder of the modern Republican Party in North Carolina, created an open seat and an opportunity for Democrats.
But the national political climate has changed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and polling for Republican and Democratic candidates in general has tipped more favorably toward Republicans.
President Bush has already been in North Carolina three times this year, and Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Raleigh and Charlotte later this month.
Although Bush will not be on the ticket this fall, most Republican leaders expect that Elizabeth Dole will. She has such a commanding lead in the polls that some GOP strategists think she will not only have coattails for other GOP candidates, but that her candidacy will draw more voters than usual to the polls.
Dole's candidacy was bolstered further Saturday when her famous husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, spoke to the convention. Other candidates complained bitterly that the party was giving Mrs. Dole an unfair advantage, but their protests were hardly a speed bump for her campaign.
Republicans think they got another break when the May 7 primary was delayed by the court battle over redistricting. While Dole seems to be breezing toward a primary rout against six little-known Republican opponents, the Democrats are engaged in a competitive, scrappy primary. The shortened general election campaign will also provide the Democrats with less time to attack Dole.
"Why am I worried?" laughed Jack Oliver, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the delayed primary. "I've got Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall telling everybody in North Carolina about the weaknesses of each other. Why do we need that to stop? Keep it going. Enjoy." He was referring to the three leading Democratic Senate candidates.
While the Helms seat has drawn most of the attention so far this year, the fight for control of the General Assembly is likely to move to center stage after the court ruling Friday.
The state House, where the Democrats hold a 62-58 majority, was already expected to be a battleground. Now, the new district maps -- assuming they are upheld on appeal -- are expected to put the Senate, where Democrats hold a 35-15 majority, in play.
"This will be a historic election for Republicans in the state of North Carolina," said Nelson Dollar, a GOP political consultant from Cary. "We will have an opportunity to take both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans are poised to take advantage of not only the new maps but also the issues, which are trending strongly toward the Republican Party."
The state budget crisis could also have a trickle-down effect politically, if Democratic county boards of commissioners are forced to raise taxes to make up for revenues withheld by the state.
But GOP leaders, while optimistic, also offer several cautionary notes. The economy remains a volatile X factor in the election. North Carolina, with its hard-hit manufacturing base, is likely to pull out of the recession slower than most of the rest of the country. No one knows who the voters might blame for the hard times.
The possibility of another terrorist attack might also introduce another powerful unknown into the election.
Despite more favorable districts, GOP strategists say privately that winning control of the General Assembly will not be easy. The Democrats have a stable of seasoned candidates and a much larger political war chest, and that will keep them competitive.
"All politics is local," said state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey of Durham County, quoting the old saw coined by former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "You still have to have the right candidate at the right place at the right time at the local level."
Staff writer Rob Christensen can be reached at 829-4532 or robc@newsobserver.com.
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I'm a heathen, but I pretty much gotta agree with you here...
Still waiting for the scripture.
You DO realize I'm being sarcastic here? Don't you?
My point is that I work with a lot of highly educated, highly successful blacks, and MOST of them think something along these lines. Even the least militant blacks often have a paranoid streak you wouldn't guess was there until you really get to know them.
November is gonna be real interesting...
Then they must not be using the education they got.
Most of the Senate Republicans are not RINO's. Even most RINO's will not vote to reject one of Bush's nominees. Bush's court nominees have been conservative as proven by the fact that Leahy is keeping virtually all of them bottled up in committee and Thomas Pickering was shot down after a huge smear campaign. Do you know who Thomas Pickering is? I find that people like you usually have no idea what Bush's court nominees are. You just speak in ignorant generalities.
It's not just a smart/dumb thing - although that's part of the equation. It's a completely different world view. Just like a scientist can look at a bird's feather and see the wonders of evolution while a creationist can see the divine hand of God.
I live in a largely black neighborhood in a mostly black city, and work with a lot of well educated blacks. At the risk of stereotyping, they tend to see conspiracies everywhere. For example, bank doesn't get my mortgage check and I blame the Post Office for losing my letter. A black friend says, don't I know banks "lose" a certain number of payments each month so they can boost their profits with late charges? He wants to know if I'm really THAT naive.
In my personal experience, most blacks are CONVINCED that their candidate was elected president but that "The Man" stole the election. Hence, their votes didn't count. Hence they were "disenfranchised" - a big word they like to toss around.
I suppose you misunderstood. Bush's agenda is bad for America. It's indistinguishable from the democrat agenda.
Bush got his unconstitutional "Patriot Act" passed without any need for control of the Senate or House. He got the totally bogus farm welfare bill passed and it didn't require a majority. He got the Education bill passed without any problem. He is a socialist and it doesn't make any difference which party is in charge. The GOP were willing accomplices in passing the crap he's been willing to sign or asked for (including the blatantly unconstitutional CFR).
The GOP is too ridiculous to be believed. They'll merge with the democrats as soon as we all get together and form a conservative party. We might as well get to it, because they're becoming indistinguishable from their intended partners as we speak.
I think that has already been done, and you have several to choose from. It is a veritable embarrassement of riches for you. Of course, you probably vote for one of them in any event, so I don't think you are going anywhere.
It's a damn dog and pony show with a dead dog and a cardboard cutout of a pony. The GOP is seeing to it that the choice will be between a liberal republican and a liberal democrat. What a reeking pile.
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