(North Carolina) GOP smells victory in 2002

NEW BERN - The Guilford County Republican Party, anticipating a strong showing at the polls in November, already has reserved a room for an election-night victory celebration at the Koury Convention Center.

"I'm excited," said Marcus Kindley, a 47-year old stockbroker who is also the Guilford County GOP chairman. "I can't wait."

The 500 Republicans gathered here for their annual two-day convention were in a giddy mood Saturday, assured that the political stars are in alignment for a robust Republican year.

The latest omen was the decision by Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins of Smithfield on Friday to draw legislative district lines more friendly to GOP candidates.

But the Republicans already believed that events were going their way. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, the former two-time Cabinet secretary and former American Red Cross president, has a commanding lead in the polls in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. President Bush, while not on the ballot, remains extremely popular in North Carolina.

And Republicans believe they have some powerful issues with which to bludgeon Democrats in the fall -- from tax hikes to the budget crisis.

"The low-hanging fruit is heavy on the limbs," said J. B. Coram, a 55-year-old cattle rancher from Scaly Mountain, suggesting that the Democrats were ripe for easy pickings.

In fact, the scenario in June is viewed so favorably by Republicans they are beginning to compare this year with the Republican landslide in 1994, when the Republicans captured the state House and nearly secured the state Senate, and also picked up several congressional seats.

"I look for it to be better than 1994," said state Rep. Frank Mitchell, a chicken farmer from Iredell County.

The political climate did not look nearly as rosy for Republicans last summer. The country was headed into a recession, and historically the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections. The impending retirement of Helms, the founder of the modern Republican Party in North Carolina, created an open seat and an opportunity for Democrats.

But the national political climate has changed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and polling for Republican and Democratic candidates in general has tipped more favorably toward Republicans.

President Bush has already been in North Carolina three times this year, and Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Raleigh and Charlotte later this month.

Although Bush will not be on the ticket this fall, most Republican leaders expect that Elizabeth Dole will. She has such a commanding lead in the polls that some GOP strategists think she will not only have coattails for other GOP candidates, but that her candidacy will draw more voters than usual to the polls.

Dole's candidacy was bolstered further Saturday when her famous husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, spoke to the convention. Other candidates complained bitterly that the party was giving Mrs. Dole an unfair advantage, but their protests were hardly a speed bump for her campaign.

Republicans think they got another break when the May 7 primary was delayed by the court battle over redistricting. While Dole seems to be breezing toward a primary rout against six little-known Republican opponents, the Democrats are engaged in a competitive, scrappy primary. The shortened general election campaign will also provide the Democrats with less time to attack Dole.

"Why am I worried?" laughed Jack Oliver, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the delayed primary. "I've got Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall telling everybody in North Carolina about the weaknesses of each other. Why do we need that to stop? Keep it going. Enjoy." He was referring to the three leading Democratic Senate candidates.

While the Helms seat has drawn most of the attention so far this year, the fight for control of the General Assembly is likely to move to center stage after the court ruling Friday.

The state House, where the Democrats hold a 62-58 majority, was already expected to be a battleground. Now, the new district maps -- assuming they are upheld on appeal -- are expected to put the Senate, where Democrats hold a 35-15 majority, in play.

"This will be a historic election for Republicans in the state of North Carolina," said Nelson Dollar, a GOP political consultant from Cary. "We will have an opportunity to take both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans are poised to take advantage of not only the new maps but also the issues, which are trending strongly toward the Republican Party."

The state budget crisis could also have a trickle-down effect politically, if Democratic county boards of commissioners are forced to raise taxes to make up for revenues withheld by the state.

But GOP leaders, while optimistic, also offer several cautionary notes. The economy remains a volatile X factor in the election. North Carolina, with its hard-hit manufacturing base, is likely to pull out of the recession slower than most of the rest of the country. No one knows who the voters might blame for the hard times.

The possibility of another terrorist attack might also introduce another powerful unknown into the election.

Despite more favorable districts, GOP strategists say privately that winning control of the General Assembly will not be easy. The Democrats have a stable of seasoned candidates and a much larger political war chest, and that will keep them competitive.

"All politics is local," said state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey of Durham County, quoting the old saw coined by former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "You still have to have the right candidate at the right place at the right time at the local level."

Oh, I get it you are telling me that the Founders created a government to be run by amateurs then immediately staffed it with professional politicians and lawyers? Suuure they did.

Not establishing qualifications is not the same thing as ruling out professional politicians. Apparently you don't consider the implications of the things you write. Implications are not equivalent to Straw Men.

Hey, if you admit that the Founders were as professional a group of politicians as ever held office then I agree with you. You have to look to Lincoln for a president who was a non-professional politician (he served only one term in the House) and I know how much you admire him.:^)

Besides having a government of amateur politicians would in actuality mean that it would be a playground for rich men even more than it is. Since only a rich man could serve without a salary poor amateurs could never suceed.

So, how many of your typical telling points do you think you just made? I'll leave to other readers to decide whether you've made a point at all. Of course, your insinuation that Congress and the other two branches of government serve without salaries is pretty lame. You've done a much better job of showing yourself to be an imbecile than I had time to do today.

Thanks so much.

The salary initially paid Congress was trivial and insufficient to live on thus, ruling out most people without slaves, rich farms or legal practices to support them. This is without question.

BTW your last comment was even less meaningful than is your norm which is depressingly low. Must have been the lack of time. "...typical telling points...?" What was lost in the translation that would make the statement that phrase was in meaningful?

Recognition of facts with regard to the class structure does not make one a Marxist anymore than it did Hamilton. Blythe pretense that they did not exist and had no impact on social life in manifold ways is merely dishonest.

Recognition that there are definite classes of people does not render one a Marxist. Hostility to the more successful classes, leading to calls for a class revolution and coerced egalitarian values, makes one either a Marxist or a fellow traveller, sharing basic Marxist values.

I am not sure that you go that far, and do not believe that I ever implied that you did. But you seem preoccupied with the slavery question--137 years after slavery ended. And it is difficult for me to understand why on earth you are, unless you are trying to stir up the Left and divide the Right. Certainly there is no current issue in American politics that makes your view of slavery relevant.

The fact that I did not dignify all of your previous comments by discussing them, did not mean that I was denying all your assumptions of fact. I frankly do not think that some of your assumptions of historic fact are relevant to anything other than historic issues. I do not think that anything you cited discredits in any way the America of the Founding Fathers. If anything, it shows an intolerant, holier than thou, attitude on your part, which you think entitles you to judge the public morals of better men.

Your invective reminds me of some of the hate filled emenations from people like Thaddeus Stevens, after the tragic schism in the 1860s; and most of us, North and South, want no more part of that. Reconstruction, not the War itself, was probably the single ugliest period of American History.

William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site

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