Posted on 01/06/2002 7:20:43 PM PST by blam
Monday, 7 January, 2002, 02:24 GMT
Space rock to hurtle past Earth
Multiple images of Asteroid 2001 YB5 show rapid motion
By BBC News Online science editor Dr David Whitehouse An asteroid discovered just a month ago is making a close approach to the Earth.
Although there is no danger of collision with it, astronomers say that its proximity reminds us just how many objects there are in space that could strike our planet with devastating consequences.
It will pass less than twice the Moon's distance from us as the rocky body moves closer to the Sun.
It is thought to be 300 metres in size - large enough to wipe out an entire country if it struck the Earth.
'Potentially hazardous'
2001 YB5 was discovered in early December by the Neat (Near Earth Asteroid Tracking) survey telescope observing from Mount Palomar in California.
Astronomers call it an Apollo object because it has a highly elliptical orbit that crosses the orbits of Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury. It circles the Sun every 1,321 days.
Astronomers also add that it is "potentially hazardous", meaning there is a slim chance that it may strike the Earth sometime in the future.
In the meantime, it will come very close to us. At 0737 GMT on 7 January it will pass just 370,000 miles away from the Earth - close in cosmic terms.
As it approached, the Earth it was observed by the Klet Observatory in the Czech Republic by astronomers Jana Ticha and Milos Tichy who tracked it on 5 January.
Such a "close encounter" is rare but not unprecedented. However, the only other known object that will come closer to the Earth is an asteroid called 1999 AN10 that will pass a shade closer on 7 August 2027.
Widespread devastation
2001 YB5's brightness suggests it is a rocky body about 300 metres across.
If it struck the Earth a 300 metre object would not be a global killer: to wipe all life off the face of our planet an object would have to be about 1 km is size. But 300 metres is more than enough to cause widespread devastation.
If it struck land it would wipe out an entire country. If the impact point were London then scientists estimate there would be total devastation for 150 kilometres and severe destruction for a further 800 kilometres, meaning that not only would the UK be destroyed but France and the Low Countries as well.
If it struck the ocean the destruction would be more widespread. It would trigger Tsunamis that would devastate most coastal cities.
Little warning
According to experts, the recent discovery and close approach of 2001 YB5 suggests that something nasty could creep up on us at any time.
Dr Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University told BBC News Online: "The fact that this object was discovered less than a month ago leads to the question of if we would have had enough time to do anything about it had it been on a collision course with us.
"Of course the answer is no, there is nothing we could have done about it."
Astronomers and archaeologists suspect that our planet is struck by a 300 metre object like 2001 YB5 about every 5,000 years or so, but this is an estimate based on a hunch rather than on any definite evidence.
"It is a reminder of the objects that are out there. It is a reminder of what is going to happen unless we track them more efficiently than we do and make better preparations to defend our planet," says Dr Peiser.
SURFS UP!
Gravametrics from planets viewed as the source for elliptical decay.
Encke is considered by some to have been a super comet..that spiralled in and was shorn in pieces.Our Earth History a testimony to Encke's power.
Dr's Victor Klube and Napier submit that we will be hit again while transiting accross the Taurid meteor stream. The Stream is likend unto crushed gravel that is delivered for drive ways..lots of consistantly small uniform sizes... with a varied amount of larger rock included. It is the larger pieces of Encke's train that fail to burn up in our atmosphere that have been doing the damage... Tunguska events to Barringer.
An interesting side note...there are positional horizon markings at Stonehenge..some feel this was also part of the design..a way of monitoring the seasons..and the Taurid meteor stream .. that the ancients feared greatly.
I'm not sure what that's supposed to mean. My post wasn't alarmist -- these space rocks are interesting. A small number of them have significantly affected life on Earth, but these are very rare.
By the way, it's the rarity of these large impacts that is the reason to sleep soundly. (I think you're underestimating the harm that would ensue if we got unlucky and a large asteroid did hit.)
Hurtling is now an Olympic event.
The recent dates are aslo facinating. Evidence for the Bibical Deluge of Noah perhaps.
I see speeds of 60,000-120,000 MPH often quoted.
January 07 2002 at 02:50PM
Paris - An asteroid big enough to wipe out a major country gave the Earth a close shave on Monday, passing less than twice the distance of the Moon from our planet, astronomers reported.
The space rock, designated 2001 YB5, measures between 220 and 490 metres and at its closest point, at 0737 GMT, was about 600 000km from the Earth, according to varying estimates on US and European specialist websites.
2001 YB5 was spotted in early December by a Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (Neat) survey telescope on Mount Palomar in California, Nasa said on its Near-Earth Object (NEO) Programme website.
Although there was no danger of collision from the asteroid, experts said the distance was a whisker in cosmic terms.
'Potentially hazardous'
"Such an object would literally wipe out a medium-sized country and lead to a global economic meltdown, unless we were extremely fortunate and it hit somewhere remote," Benny Peiser, an asteroid expert at Liverpool John Moores University, told AFP by phone.
Only one other identified asteroid, a rock called 1999 AN10, will come closer, making a flyby on August 7 2027.
An object 220 to 490m across would release energy equivalent to hundreds of atomic bombs if it whacked into the Earth.
A large object, believed to be up to 10km long, smashed into Mexico's Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago, triggering a firestorm and a dust cloud that wiped out the dinosaurs, scientists believe.
In 1908, an asteroid or comet about 60m long exploded over Siberia with the force of 600 times the Hiroshima bomb, reducing a 40km wide patch of forest to matchwood.
2001 YB5 has been categorised by Neat as a "potentially hazardous" asteroid.
Although it poses no danger at all to the Earth at the moment, that could theoretically change in the future if its orbit around the Sun is deflected by the gravitational pull of a nearby planet.
Its trajectory crosses the orbits of Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, NEAT said. - Sapa-AFP
Fascinating reading!
I put one of your references on the GGG list and guess this should go there also since it ties in earlier events .
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It's hard to believe they made such a mistake...According to the team from Sussex University, however, these calculations missed out a crucial effect: the loss of mass by the ageing Sun as it expands and its gravity weakens.
What a bunch of dummies. I've been sweating over this ever since I learned the Earth would be swallowed up by the sun. Now it's not true. This is outrageous. I'm outraged! Puff.
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