Has Bush outfoxed bin Laden?

The terrorist atrocities inflicted on the US have give rise to a new rumor mill that grinds out stories that range from the banal to the bizarre. But a story out of the Middle East has more credibility than most, particularly in certain quarters. Some cooler and more intelligent heads in the Arab world have concluded that Bush has outfoxed the fanatical bin Laden.

Like all fanatics bin Laden is narrowly on his mission while being disconnected from the real world. Far from being the educated man he is said to be he, like his suicide-bombers, is remarkable ignorant of the West, specially the US. Although some of his followers have been educated at Western Universities their education has been confined to technical subjects like engineering. Those, for example, who attended US universities learnt nothing of US history or cultural values, confusing topless bars, which some of them enjoyed, with moral decay and lack of will. The sad fact is that what little they knew of US history and policies came entirely from the country’s anti-American left, which has painted a grossly dishonest picture of America that neatly fitted in with these terrorists’ anti-American dogma thus blinding them further to the political and military consequences of their actions.

As our editor pointed out at a recent seminar in Australia, being narrowly focused to the exclusion of all else is part of the terrorists’ Achilles heel. And so it is with bin Laden. Believing himself to be the hand of God and a follower of the one true faith, or his fanatical version of it, means he operates with an open loop. Therefore there is no negative feedback mechanism to correct his distorted picture of the world. There are no advisers to council restraint or retreat because like Hitler, Stalin, Mao, etc., he literally believes himself to be the only one capable of interpreting events and predicting their consequences.

Now we have bin Laden’s fundamental weakness. Being truly ignorant of American history and knowing nothing of the country’s political system he has made the mistake of drawing the wrong lesson from a narrow range of fairly recent events by interpreting it in terms of his world view: the refusal of George Bush senior’s to finish off Saddam Hussein, the hasty retreat from Somalia, the successful bombing of US embassies and military bases in Saudi Arabia, the attack on the Cole and Clinton’s self-serving pinprick responses to terrorism.

In bin Laden’s fantasy America would either respond in a Clintonesque way and so demonstrate to the world its cowardly nature or it would blindly strike out, killing hundreds if not thousands of innocents and so inflame the whole of the Islamic world. (Notice how closely his apocalyptic vision resembles the extreme left’s one of a world-wide revolution against capitalism).

He got neither. Instead of grabbing the initiative he made a terrible blunder. His actions pulled the US together, awakening in it a steely resolve that can have only one outcome. Instead of retreating or immediately striking out, President Bush set about building up a mighty military force not only to destroy bin Laden but to demonstrate to the rest of the world the consequences of attacking America. Afghanistan has been isolated, it’s borders sealed.

Battle lines have been drawn and are being supported with varying degrees of enthusiasm. Russia, Tajikstan. Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, even Iran, Pakistan and China are cooperating. British special forces (SAS) are already operating in the country while American special forces are moving in. A coordinated plan consisting of concentrated air attacks on terrorist camps and Taliban installations, special forces assault teams, and the cooperation of the Northern Alliance is being put into action. None of this, so the story goes, is supposed to be happening.

Moreover, there are rumors that the scale of the forces that bin Laden has unleashed has caused subterranean cracks to appear within the Taliban’s ranks, with some of them wondering why they should have to take the fall for bin Laden. The smarter ones know they are not popular among the mass of Afghans, and that if properly equipped and supported by Western powers the Northern Alliance would drive them back to their mountain villages — that is if the locals don’t hang them from cranes and artillery barrels first.

Afghan refugees are relating tales of an increasing number of Taliban acts of banditry and rape as order collapses in the towns and cities. The wholesale kidnapping of non-Pashtun males aged between 15 and 30 for ‘military’ service smells of panic because the Taliban knows these males belong to hostile ethnic minorities. These are not the actions of men who believe in their own invincibility.

So to some Arab observers Bush has already won. But surely if bin Laden is killed other bin Laden’s will arise. There is only one bin Laden, thank God. This latter-day Mahdi is just another religious millenarian who promises paradise by driving out the infidel, the cause of the faithful’s misery. Such people have been a curse throughout history.

I’m not saying that terrorism will end with bin Laden, only that his head must be the first to roll if victory is to be achieved. Once this is done, the invisible war against terrorism will accelerate, from the freezing of bank accounts to the assassination of terrorist organizers and the smashing of their networks.

The strategy, as explained to me, is basically simple. Make an example of bin Laden, demonstrate overwhelming military power and the will to use it against states that harbor and train terrorists; isolate the terrorists physically and squeeze them psychologically. The ultimate aim is the elimination of state-sponsored terrorism.

Bush is following a masterful strategy. Much of the leverage that is being effectively applied now, could be next to impossible after military action. Plus, we must take the time to position our military forces so their plans can be executed as flawlessly as possible.

Importantly, prudence now is giving us a leg-up on the threat within the States. We must know what we're up against before the blows come.

I agree with you. This administration has made two particularlly brilliant moves since September 11.

The first was the grounding of all flights. I don't think they saw that one coming.

The second, is the coalition. In a sense, they are using the coalition as an interrogation of the governments of other countries in order to get a read on them. This will serve us well in the future...even beyond the terrorist "smoke outs."

I agree with your cautionary note. I applaud the adminstration's foreign policy victories, but I'm concerned their military strikes (having taken so long) may be less than effective. But I'm also not privy to a lot of info, so I'm hopeful they know what they're doing and will seriously attempt to decapitate these terrorist organizations.

I am absolutely amazed at what the President and his team have accomplished without firing a shot to date.

Yep.

What will we have, three, four carrier battle groups in the Indian Ocean? They'll be there awhile.

An added benefit is to show China just how big and bad we are, to say nothing of how ugly we're going to be in three or four years.

If Jackson goes, he will get over there and try his meddling and find out that he does not have the power to tell the U.S. to do anything. Bush has said no negotiations. Why does Jackson think that will change because he is there?

Looks like another Powell rebuke is going to happen. They will let him go, let him try and get America to negotiate and Bush will say "No negotiation". Where does that leave Jackson? The powerless meddler that he is. He will then cower home or they will take him hostage. Another ploy that Jesse would love because he would hope to rally all blacks to an outcry to negotiate to get Jackson back. However, it won't happen because this is war.

In fact, maybe Jackson is one of them - they won't allow any other Americans over there.

I believe there is much truth in this author's opinion. I was just telling my husband last night that I think the same mind set that makes bin Laden so radical also makes him unaware of how some things really work. He lives in an unrealistic world that only knows plotting terror and hiding. He cannot and does not have a grasp on a reality beyond his world. Until now he has gotten away with his acts and undoubtedly thought there was nothing to stop him. While his threat is very real and dangerous, he will be stopped. It will take a long time to rid the world of most terrorists, but I do believe it will be done.

I also think the ridiculousness of the Clinton administration added to a distorted image of America. I suppose bin Laden saw the U.S. very differently than her people actually are. Surprise, surprise. We now have a good president and one that has been able to bring many American people to their senses. I doubt this was ever calculated in the diabolical and sick mind of bin Laden. Indeed, I think he has been outfoxed and his delusion will be the death of him and those that follow him..............Finally !!!!!!!!

In bin Laden’s fantasy America would either respond in a Clintonesque way and so demonstrate to the world its cowardly nature or it would blindly strike out, killing hundreds if not thousands of innocents and so inflame the whole of the Islamic world.

Another Legacy of Bill's.

"but I'm concerned their military strikes (having taken so long) may be less than effective"

Patience, patience: it takes a while to set up something this big 8,000 miles away in a forbidding place with no existing support lines, facing obvious opposition, and with an adversary that moves around a lot. The US has to get everything in place first to do it right. Recall that it took about six months to set up Desert Storm.

The sad fact is that what little they knew of US history and policies came entirely from the country’s anti-American left, which has painted a grossly dishonest picture of America that neatly fitted in with these terrorists’ anti-American dogma thus blinding them further to the political and military consequences of their actions.

The other implication here is the anti-american leftwing media can claim a large portion of the responsibility for the deaths of the 7,000 at the WTC as well as recent airline terrorist bombings & crashes.

The blood of these innocents is on their hands as well as the terrorists.

Considered dangerous, last seen stealing an election in Florida.

And some day, SOME way there'll be a recount that actually PROVES it.

Take your silly fantasy elsewhere.

Right on! Good article. Thanks.

Bin Laden comes from an enormously wealthy family of international businessmen. His family is close to the Royals, which means he's grown up to the intricacies of international high finance. That the terrorists sold short prior to the attack shows he's learned his lessons well.
There are also pictures of him in London in his teens so he has at least some first-hand knowledge of the West.
Yet Naom Chomsky quotes interviewer Robert Fisk as agreeing with the author of this article - that bin Laden doesn't know the West and has no interest in it.
While the author may be right in saying that bin Laden's ideological biases may have blinded him to reality, I find his generalities and conclusions too sweeping for comfort.

I too, have gazed in admiration and appreciation, as the steel back bone, intelligence and sheer guts of our President has changed the face of the world. As he promised, he is using EVERY tool and every resource.

Beware the fury of a patient man. --Dryden

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