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Posted on 11/04/2026 8:37:04 AM PST by hcmama
@JDVance
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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And that’s the end of JD Vance’s career because those who dragged us into that war will make sure he’s going nowhere.
Three of those I agree with. But we don’t abandon Israel.
PDJT said yesterday that Israel doe NOT need more foreign aid. Israel is prosperous on it’s own already. That $4 Billion yearly aid ends in 2026.
and the economy and Trump’s inability to resist putting every thought in his head on social media. I’ll add in Trump’s grandiose imperialistic plans such as the arch.
It was reported that regime change in Iran was not a realistic goal according to Vance and Ratcliffe. Multiple news outlets reported it at the time.
You notice when Republicans get destroyed in an election, there is calmness from the GOP members. No riots in the streets and burning down buildings the way that democrats do when they lose an election.
I think you can stick a fork in the arch. It’s done.
They will cling to their profits at our costs.
“And that’s the end of JD Vance’s career because those who dragged us into that war will make sure he’s going nowhere.”
and Trump would have not won in 2024 unless he had made a deal to invade.
Vance nails it in this piece.
It was definitely the war. Lots of dem-lites and indys voted for Trump this time around because he got through his whole last term without starting a war. They didn’t come out for him this time. Simple as that.
The Hispanic vote shift was huge, and I believe that’s because the anchor babies are pissed their illegal families and friends are being shown the door. Immigration enforcement changed lots of vote’s IMO.
Amen
Vance just supercharged the Media narrative. It is not the war. It is the gas prices caused by the war. Voters get stung every time the fill up. All you are going to hear is the rats won because of Trumps war when it is gas prices that did this. I had doubts about Vance, not anymore. He is not ready and many never be.
By your opinion everyone in Trump admin is done. Vance was the only top level person in admin who was not enthusiastic about starting endless foreign wars.
I am betting on either Vance or Rubio wining nomination in 2028.
Good. Trump and those who supported it never understood that to a lot of people it was not a symbol of the U.S. triumphs but of Trump’s indifference to the daily struggles of both Liberal and Conservative voters. It was Trump’s fiddle.
GAS. Sky high gas is why they lost. It’s that simple. Trump said he’d lower the price of gas and it didn’t come down. So the republicans lost their asses last night. Now for the consequences………..
Globalist are going to push amnesty and anti tariff propaganda to get the next Republican to be more Bush-Like
It’s obviously the war was the main issue (and more non whites in America who will always vote for Dems).
They need to stop all immigration for a few decades really
Vance is only stating the obvious. And the ones who dragged us into that war are named Donald and Bibi.
Vance's career is fine. He'll take subtle and necessary steps in the next 2 years to disassociate himself from Trump and a will be a formidable candidate in 28.
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