Posted on 07/19/2026 8:56:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
If this is HAARP send it to Canada & put out the fires.
That becomes the area that had rivers 32 feet higher than normal.
Our lakes are filling/filled up, from last weeks rains, thankfully!!
We are still somewhat in a drought … hopefully, the aquifers are nicely filling up, as well.
Maybe we’ll be designated as out of drought, soon.
Right where more rain is not needed at all.
Thanks for the post NN. I’m no longer in Louisville. We moved to the north side of Tampa. So, back in the danger zone.
This little ‘area of concern’ closed a circulation loop yesterday morning…. And the upper level sheer winds have died down. It was primed to develop.
We’re getting plenty of much needed rain here now. Glad to see it predicted to move away.
I’m still hopeful for golf tomorrow morning !😆
I feel for y’all. I lived in hurricane country for 62 of my 74 years. Now retired to Wisconsin where I don’t fret the season any longer. Stay safe.
Hurricane Debbie traveled through Florida, up the east coast through New Hampshire and Vermont before reaching Ottawa and Montreal...
This thing looks like it could get big, what do you think?
Does this thing look pretty big or have the potential to be or is it me?
This system is big. It has been providing us 3+ days of much needed rain bands/squalls along the Peninsula Gulf Coast. Don’t know whether it will tighten up upon strengthening, likely tomorrow. Forecast has Tampa Bay continuing to receive outer bands through tomorrow.
Thanks, NN, checking in from beautiful Assumption Parish, LA!
Tropical Storm conditions possible in the FL Panhandle by late Monday...
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
I am El Nino. all other tropical storms must bow before El Nino yos soy El Nino”.
Tropical Depression Two, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico off Florida's west coast on Sunday, July 19, is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Bertha by Sunday night or Monday. The system is currently moving slowly north-northwest at 2 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, and forecasters warn that it will likely crawl along the northern Gulf Coast for several days.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida coast from the Ochlockonee River westward to the Alabama border, indicating that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of at least 39 mph) are possible within 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches may be issued for parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana as the system develops.
The primary threat to the region is heavy rainfall, with 2 to 4 inches expected and isolated amounts reaching up to 8 inches through Thursday. This moisture poses a significant risk for flash flooding, particularly in low-lying urban areas and along the eastern and central Gulf Coast. While wind speeds are not forecast to reach hurricane status due to dry air and wind shear, storm surges of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the Big Bend region of Florida.
Copy As of Monday, July 20, 2026, the system previously known as Tropical Depression Two has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha. The storm remains a slow-moving threat, crawling along the northern Gulf Coast with a forecast track that keeps it near or over the water for the next several days.
Current Status and Track
Bertha is currently located approximately 155 miles south of Panama City, Florida, moving north-northwest at a sluggish 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 30–40 mph, with forecasts suggesting the storm could reach winds of up to 60 mph by Wednesday morning as it turns westward. The slow motion is due to the storm being trapped between two high-pressure systems, causing it to meander rather than move quickly inland.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Florida coast from the Ochlockonee River westward to the Alabama border. This indicates that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Forecasters warn that additional watches may be issued for parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana as the system's path becomes clearer.
Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: The most significant threat is persistent heavy rain. Forecasts predict 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region, with isolated totals reaching 8 inches through Thursday.
The ground, currently hardened by drought conditions, may struggle to absorb the water, increasing the risk of flash flooding in urban areas and low-lying zones. Storm Surge:
A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is possible along the coast from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka. The risk is highest if the surge coincides with high tide.
Dangerous Surf:
Swells generated by Bertha are causing life-threatening surf conditions and strong rip currents along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Wave heights are forecast to reach 4 to 8 feet through Tuesday, making beach activities extremely dangerous.
Tropical Storm Bertha rainfall forecast Florida View all Outlook While dry air and wind shear are expected to prevent Bertha from becoming a hurricane, its slow movement prolongs the exposure to rain and wind for the Gulf Coast.
Residents and travelers from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are advised to monitor local forecasts closely, as the storm's westward turn later in the week could bring impacts further down the coast.
............................................
If you look a the overall system it's actually controlling what looks like light showers some 50-75 miles offshore of the east coast of Florida. To me that's a giant storm! I couldn't even estimate the length of it's circulation but its big.
AI once again proves it is not ready for primetime. TD2 has not yet been upgraded to TS Bertha per the NHC. Expected later today.
TD2 creeping NW at 3mph...
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Is the tracking good enough to know whether or not the center will stay over water and for how long?
Current forecast has the storm creeping over water until Wednesday. Then it picks up the pace, moving westward across southern Louisiana from stem to stern, and on into the NE TX Gulf coast.
"I have no changes from what I tweeted early this am, and NHC agrees this is a TS by tom pm. Where we differ is on intensity further west, as it's my belief that the 4-analog path (which is what the NHC track looks like) would mean this is a hurricane by the time it's near Louisiana, and, if it follows that path, a stronger one when it reaches Texas.
So the blend of the track and intensities is the current call. The further south this can go, the stronger it will be as the track bends to the west and then WSW.
[Analog storms] Anita went to a 5 ( furthest south) Alicia a 3, the other 2 TS, so I guess the blend on our power and impact scale would be about a 2.5 if it gets back to Texas south of Galveston."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.