[NautiNurse]

Current forecast has the storm creeping over water until Wednesday. Then it picks up the pace, moving westward across southern Louisiana from stem to stern, and on into the NE TX Gulf coast.

[alancarp]

Joe Bastardi's take, from last night, emphasis added:

"I have no changes from what I tweeted early this am, and NHC agrees this is a TS by tom pm. Where we differ is on intensity further west, as it's my belief that the 4-analog path (which is what the NHC track looks like) would mean this is a hurricane by the time it's near Louisiana, and, if it follows that path, a stronger one when it reaches Texas.

So the blend of the track and intensities is the current call. The further south this can go, the stronger it will be as the track bends to the west and then WSW.

[Analog storms] Anita went to a 5 ( furthest south) Alicia a 3, the other 2 TS, so I guess the blend on our power and impact scale would be about a 2.5 if it gets back to Texas south of Galveston."

[alancarp]

Obviously, Joe's take brings this storm over water -- not the coastline -- right now, the NHC is going with the costal path. A few miles will make a big difference, though:

[rodguy911]

I wonder how good the tracking is since just a few miles can Make the difference between the cetner over water or over land. That's not important:

IT'S EVERYTHING!