Russia's oil and gas revenue rises 32% y/y to $9.26 billion in May, data shows

Russia's oil and gas tax revenue, which accounts for around a fifth of total budget income, increased by 32.4% year-on-year in May to 678.9 billion roubles ($9.3 billion), Finance Ministry data showed ⁠on Wednesday, thanks to a global oil price rally fuelled by the Middle East war.

Revenue declined by 20.7% from April, when the budget received additional payments from profit-based tax, paid cyclically.

Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer and exporter after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, has been one of the main beneficiaries of the rise in oil prices after the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran began at the end of February.

Oil and ‌gas ⁠revenue is the main source of income for the Kremlin, whose finances have been strained by heavy defence and security spending since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.

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Here is a precise rebuttal to the Reuters report on Russia’s May oil and gas revenue because it lacks context :

That piece highlights a 32% year-on-year jump in oil and gas tax revenue to $9.3 billion in May 2026. But this is just a temporary blip caused by higher global oil prices from the Iran conflict—not any real improvement in Russia’s economy or sanctions situation. Cumulative revenue for January-May 2026 is still down about 30% from last year, and 2025 was already the lowest since 2020. It’s not resilience; it’s dependence on outside events while the war keeps draining the country.

The truth is, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is taking a very heavy toll on its economy and its people. Here’s why:

The budget is in serious trouble. Military and security spending now eats up about 40% of the federal budget and 6.3-7.5% of GDP—more than double pre-war levels. The deficit has already blown past the full-year target: it hit 4.6 trillion rubles by the end of Q1 (exceeding the planned 3.8 trillion for the whole year) and reached 5.88 trillion by April. Even Kremlin officials are warning Putin that defense spending is unsustainable.

The economy is overheating and heading for stagnation. War spending creates short-term “growth” in defense factories, but the rest of the economy faces labor shortages, falling investment, and bottlenecks. The government has cut its 2026 growth forecast, and independent data shows the real economy has been shrinking. High interest rates (15-21%) are now choking normal business activity.

Inflation is squeezing people’s wallets. Official figures say 5.6% in April, but real estimates put it closer to 15%. Prices for food, medicine, and basics are rising fast, eroding real incomes even as some defense wages go up.

Poverty and daily hardship for ordinary Russians. At least 13.5 million people are below the poverty line. The war’s human cost—over a million casualties, and mobilization—has tightened the labor market and left families struggling with clear uncertainty, lost breadwinners, and high living costs.

And taxes are up to help financing the war...

Long-term damage is building up. Sanctions block access to technology and markets, forcing expensive workarounds like shadow fleets and discounted oil sales. Reserves are shrinking, debt is rising, and the economy is becoming more militarized and cut off from the world. Forecasts point to stagnation ahead once the war-fueled spending slows.

Bottom line: that May revenue spike is a one-off windfall from an unrelated conflict. It doesn’t fix the massive deficits, inflation, or structural problems the war has created. Russia is paying a steep price—economically and for its people—with no sustainable path forward. The invasion isn’t strengthening the country; it’s slowly destroying it from within like a cancer.

The world is divided and American sanctions have stopped causing disruptions in Russia, who has reoriented the economy away from both the EU snd US. The ideavwas to show Russia unable to contine producing missiles and aircraft.

Since the end if WWII the US has sanctions on Russia and each new round from Brussels and Washington today have the net effect of forced western isolation and disrngagement from Brics.

Remembering Obama Shovel ready jobs campaign was replaced by a country rumored to fightveith onky shovels and steal washing machine chips... both were myths of competing political narratives since proven BS. Today Russia uilds their own chips, and are building airliners, which China ditched Trump’s Boeing gamble for integration of Sino-Russo airlines production.

Brics ascendance is absorbing Russian products. Even if the EU wanted to contine beyond 2927 their energy imports from Russia, that oil and LNG has already been allicated to more reliable partners and contracts. Just as with Chinese rare earths the US has literally lost trade with China and Russia.

If one actually wanted to see year over year global energy production, there are oil and gas industry sources free from the propoganda spread in western MSM.

France has seen her overseas Franc empire halved by dissension, and political realignments, cutting off necessary resources taken for a fraction of market prices costing France actual prices at today’s price. Without cheap mining from former African hostage economies, France is suffering a double whammy of higher LNG prices and uranium which is crushing all EU economies.

For all the talk about who is suffering from higher oil or energy, it is certainly not Russia.

While te EU and US use Ukraine to attack Russian energy, were Russia to see the conflict expand into EUrope they could bring a swift end to EU economies and strave support of Ukraine by simply recopilación of attacking EU energy import Terminals, which today is their primary source of reciept of energy, which comes now mainly from the US

Ukraine wants to drag NATO into the conflict but given NATOs yearsbof already directing attacks on Russian energy, the west should understand how venerable their economies are to being targeted by Russia.

The srones from the EU will be the only other tagets necessary for Russia to destroy production sites, and of couse the LNG Terminals.

It is going to be funny watching the EU redirect itself from having its war with Russia. and the pivot to just trying to keep their population and economy from drying. This will be a first in modern warfare when one sides population being kept alive is the economic breaking point for the governments.

Trump now understands that he was never going to defeat Russia thru Ukraine when he expanded to his global war on energy... sanctions, interdiction of shipping, attacking Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, and when the MSM ran their stories about how it was also to cut Chinese energy off, Trump is scrambling to avoid a global recession because of his militay actions and the failures of his plan in the Gulf.

When everyone cheers and jeers Russian energy as some proof, the global nature of energy interdependence starts to maje itself known as oil supplies are drawn down heading into summer. Most modern economies by July will be tight and there may be rationing. Trump’s attack on Iran was a strategic failure and the energy backlash now coming will really be felt when selling below market Strategic Reserves end.

By July or August, if you revisit your beliefs that Russian energy is harming Russia your mind will see that Russian energy and their military are two strengths as the MSM narrative Ukraine is winning will be exposed as coping and fraud, or propaganda. Denial of the obvious consequences of the summer offensive in Donbas and Zaporosia, not including the possible increased missile campaign will completely change the historic reporting/propoganda.

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