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Posted on 04/14/2026 3:35:30 PM PDT by MeanWestTexan
"The move to besiege the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coasts is expected to paralyze China energetically and economically within a short time, and it is possible that this is the central logic behind the move." (From the study by Adam Kraft and international researchers).
The American blockade of Iranian coasts and the Strait of Hormuz has placed the Chinese economy in a precarious position. A new study by a former U.S. national security official warns that without regular supplies, China's oil reserves could run dry as early as June.
The Depth of Chinese Dependency
China is currently the world’s most energy-import-dependent economy, with approximately 80% of its energy requirements supplied by Iran and the wider Middle East. The scale of this dependency highlights a significant strategic vulnerability:
Daily Imports: Over 5 million barrels of oil and millions of cubic meters of natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily en route to China.
Sanction Circumvention: China has historically relied on "under the table" deals with Iran, securing oil at discounts often exceeding 20%. The current blockade effectively terminates these cut-rate supply lines.
The Countdown to Crisis
A study led by Adam Kraft, former head of national security research for the U.S. government, suggests that the Trump administration's move to target the Iranian coastline is designed to paralyze China both energetically and economically. Based on calculations of China’s national emergency reserves and total consumption:
The Deadline:
If the blockade continues, China is projected to descend into a severe energy and economic crisis by early June. Infrastructure Limitations: Even if China attempts to source oil from elsewhere (such as Russia or Azerbaijan), its refineries are chemically calibrated for specific Middle Eastern crude. Transitioning these facilities to process different oil grades poses a major technical and financial challenge.
The Strategic Play
The study indicates that the blockade includes a "timer" on the Asian superpower’s economy. Ironically, the only nation capable of meeting China's massive energy demands in the absence of Middle Eastern oil is the United States. This suggests the ultimate goal of the maneuver may be to force China into a position of total energy reliance on its primary global rival.
The ultimate irony? The only nation with enough spare capacity to save China from an Iranian energy drought is the one currently holding the hose: The United States.
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China could always turn to Venezu—oh, wait....
China can call up Iran and tell them to make a deal, im sure they still have some sway over the Iranians.
Sounds like checkmate. That’s what worries me.
FDR did similar to Japan in summer 1941
Yes, but there’s an easy answer here for China:
Give the mullahs and IRGC clowns refuge in China. They can go live in a Dacha (or whatever the Chinese equivalent is) and spend their stolen money in China.
I don’t know about the chaos part. China is a brutal communist dictatorship, so they won’t have the same problems with their public as the US does. Remember, these are the people who welded apartment building doors shut during COVID.
As for the economic problems, they can just have people smelt iron in their backyards, like they did before. Anyone who complains will just be sent to the Uighur camps.
Seems logical that the economic pressure on China would compel them to advise their friends, the Iranian Mullahs, to cut a deal with the US.
“Seems logical that the economic pressure on China would compel them to advise their friends, the Iranian Mullahs, to cut a deal with the US.”
Yep.
In your HTML statement, put IMG WIDTH=”80%”
Using PERCENTAGE will have the picture fill 80% of the browser window and will make the picture work with any device. Your cellphone image and a large screen PC picture will appear the same.
Chopsticks are cleaner than fingers.
Yeah, even if I wished it were true, the article stretches credulity.
China can buy oil from anyone not affected by the blockade, which is everyone except Iran. That’s a big store.
Don’t tell anyone, but this is the real target.
I am just making sure you can see, too. ;-)
China does have a time advantage, of sorts.
On May 1st the War Powers Act will kick in. If Congress does not vote to authorize a continuation of this conflict, Trump must draw back and call it a day.
Or Trump could defy Congress, and keep the pressure on.
So China could just wait it out, and see what happens.
“China can buy oil from anyone not affected by the blockade, which is everyone except Iran. That’s a big store.”
I agree, but Iran (at least when I last checked) claimed it was stopping those boats. This may be outdated info.
There also is an issue with refinery compatibility. As noted in the article, Chinese refineries are calibrated to Iranian oil. Re-tooling is not as easy as one thinks.
I ironically deal with this a fair amount, as the oil my ranch (and my oil company, albeit not on my ranch) produces “light sweet crude”. It’s basically a mix of natural gasoline and kerosene. You can let it settle out in a tank and put in in your car or tractor (although it might smoke a bit). It doesn’t work in a lot of refineries, as they are calibrated for crap oil.
Chinese tanker blew right through the blockade this AM. So it is not a problem for them. Some blockade!
My recollection is that China has been socking away a large strategic reserve over the last several years - enough extra purchases to prop up oil prices. I think they have something like a year’s worth in storage.
China is not barred from the oil market - they are just going to have to pay a lot more going forward. No discounted Iranian oil. Russian sanctions suspended, so they don’t have to sharply discount. High spot market prices. Now China will pay $90 or $100, instead of $35 or $40. I expect they will suffer a price shock, rather than a shortage shock.
So sorry.
You really ate up that propaganda piece to promote Chinavirus2019.
Did you believe the chink videos of check points and chasing down people with dog catcher nets?
Did you wonder why the signage was in English?
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