Hungary's opposition Tisza party widens its lead ahead of Orban's Fidesz

Hungary’s centre-right opposition Tisza party has widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz in February, a highly regarded poll showed on Wednesday, ahead of an April 12 election in which the veteran nationalist is seeking reelection.

Orban, seeking to retain his 16-year grip on ‌power, is facing a strong challenger for the first time in a parliamentary vote, with the outcome having major implications not only for Hungary but for Europe and its far-right political forces.

The poll showed Fidesz losing ground, while Tisza is gaining supporters, despite numerous voter-pleasing measures announced by the government ‌after three years of economic stagnation.

Tisza, led by former government ⁠insider Peter Magyar, has extended ⁠its lead over Fidesz to 20 percentage points among decided voters, up from a 12-point lead in a January survey, pollster Median said in an article published by news website hvg.hu.

Magyar’s party, which was only launched in 2024, had the support of 55% of decided voters, up from 51% in January.

Support for Fidesz dropped to 35% from 39% a month ago, according to the survey conducted between ⁠February 18 and 23.

When looking at the entire ⁠population, the survey said that Tisza was supported by 42% while Fidesz was backed by 31%.

Pissant, no, it is not fake - I work with many folks in Budapest and Szeged.

Nearly 50% of the population lives in Budapest and they don’t like Orban - this is not just the liberals, but many conservatives are fed up with him as well (as you can see by the poll).

Both parties share a strict stance on migration, though Tisza criticizes Fidesz for allowing thousands of non-EU migrant workers into the country.

The difference which is pushing many conservatives away from Fidesz are:
1. EU — Hungarians see their economy as closely tied to the EU. They support what Tisza wants to do - stay in and work with conservatives in italy, poland etc. to push back against Brussels. they realize that they are a tiny country that needs to be in a larger confederation

2. Ukraine - Orban looks increasingly like Putin has something on him - the Hungarians I know who supported him say that he has taken his pro-Putin stance well beyond what is good for Hungary’s economy. Tisza also opposes sending troops or weapons but does not outright oppose Ukraine joining the EU, suggesting a merit-based process and a national referendum instead.

3. Corruption - Orban has oligarchs - folks with close personal ties to Orbán, such as his childhood friend Lőrinc Mészáros and his son-in-law István Tiborcz, have become some of Hungary’s wealthiest people.

Over two-thirds of state contracts in some sectors are awarded in competition-restricting manners, often with only one bidder.

Orban MAY scrape in and stay, but if he loses, he is losing to an equally conservative party, only one which does not have his same views on the EU, Ukraine and corruption

In February 2026—just eight weeks before the vote—pensioners received a 13th and even a new 14th monthly pension. The introduction of the “14th-month” top-up is estimated to cost approximately 0.6% of Hungary’s GDP ($454 million annually).

A lifetime personal income tax exemption for mothers with two children came into force at the beginning of 2026, initially for those under 40. This follows a previous exemption for mothers with three or more children.

A six-month salary bonus was promised to members of the armed forces for early 2026.

A new 3% fixed-rate housing loan program was launched for first-time homebuyers and young people to ease the pressure of rising housing costs.

A 1 million forint ($2,850) housing subsidy was announced for doctors, nurses, police officers, teachers, and soldiers to be used for mortgage repayments or down payments.

In early 2026, the government launched a 50 billion forint ($160 million) measure to partly reimburse household heating costs for January due to freezing temperatures.

A 100 billion forint ($310 million) package was announced in January 2026 to support the struggling restaurant industry

2026 Minimum Wage: Increased by 11% to HUF 322,800 gross per month for unskilled roles.

Some are definitely vote buying (the 14th month pension? the 6 month salary bonus?) - others are nice measures, but the timing - just before the elections, well, that’s voter incentivizing.

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